Man, variance in these is weird. 23 games today, +3100 chips EV, -2500 chips actual, up eleven buyins in $. My brain isn't sure whether I should feel like I'm running bad or running good.

Welcome to Jackpot Sit-N-Go on the WPN network...Remember your worst run bads/variance, just wait because it will be worse than you can comprehend right now.. Enjoy your stay.. #standard

I quit playing them, My BR can't take it. I still dunno how anyone can beat the PLO without just being luck, people will re-raise all in with any 4 cards, Suck outs are crazy. Really just bingo poker even if you have a strategy. Leads to a bigger question....what do i play? SNG's are dead, i suppose i could go back to cash.

The variance is a roller coaster in all jackpot poker sngs not just PLO.

If you keep getting re-raised in the PLO jackpots having to decide whether to play a pot for more then you want to pre at early blind levels if you were to call the 3 bet or are folding a lot then consider a different approach to minimize the bingo effect.

You can't completely eliminate playing bingo flipping it up for hyper formats so they might not be for you.

With all do respect, your strategy needs work. You berated me for in chat for getting all in otf vs. your AAxx with what you perceived was a bingo play, when I was an actual equity favorite.

^^This.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utopia

There's different kind of variances. There is the variance in the cards, and the variance in the multiplier. I have had sessions when I have played relatively well/ran good and broke even because so many of the multipliers were only 2x. And I've also had sessions where I've ran bad/played bad and ended up profiting because I won a couple 6x or an 8x or something.

Weird for sure

The sit & Crush jackpot is at almost $18,000 right now...does anybody have any idea what it was at like a month ago before Jackpot Poker was offered? Just curious how much more it is since they started offering the Jackpots.

it was something pathetic like 1k

WTF is going on right now, tremendous lag, then the tables froze, when i restart the client, the lobby is frozen, i click and nothing happens... I had one 10$ 6x and one 2x 40$, too good i didn't have more. Happened again yesterday too, such lag when both of my connections are perfect. I thought such crap happens only at pokerstars

Now it let me in, i got at the table and we were both inactive, then a message appeared that the tournament is suspended. I chatted with my opponent and he said it is like this all day.

And the 6x table still not closing, though suspended, wtf, now i wait or what

Since i don't even know who you are in game, kinda hard to rebut the hand.
I'd need to see the HH, but if it's the ones where it's HU people go all in preflop vs AAXX(not just junk) with hands like 44aj....how are you the favorite? Even if you hit a pair on the flop how are you the favorite calling?
Either way i'm not playing them...at least not for awhile.

Yeah i agree. Take the AAxx hand, knowing people will call or raise 60-75% of the time, why would you not want to get it all in preflop if possible. I know margins are smaller but someone is still behind with KKxx, Especially if the AAxx has coordinating cards. I do fold many hands early I would play depending on the player for that reason. In the end you get it all in with AAxx verses a hand like 44j8, how is that not +ev?
Others make it seem i just shove, everything i play, not even close. I've folded it many times when i needed too.

We all make poker mistake, I've made plenty of them, it never gets better either on a bad streak, but how players said going all in with those hands preflop or even flop with 20+bb's is +ev is beyond me when you have to call a pot bet or near pot bet. Especially with such small stacks.

Maybe your right, maybe it's not for me.

AAxx is a higher variance hand because people think it's the nuts which don't get me wrong it's stronger them a lot of stuff villains are playing but it's never that much of a favorite in PLO especially if neither ace is suited and the cards around it are junk.

If this was a capped 25bb cash game where you will get 25bbs back in return then sure but if it's a game like jackpot sngs where you have to beat out 2 other players for a double that only gets you half way to making the money if you are still three handed then it's different.

It's hard to give examples and I'm also not going to make this a poker strategy area but one example I will give you is if I knew my opponent only raises hands like AAxx type of stuff and I look down at something like JdTd8h7c I might just try to see the flop as cheap as possible with them taking a line to pot control as much as I can then let them tool out blasting when I flop a ton of equity. We can say well that hand plays great against AAxx which it does but I will play stronger and some worse hands then that which have good flopping potential vs. AAxx, KKxx, etc...

If you want to go with AAxx as hard as possible preflop then it's not to say a lot of times it isn't positive ev given the situation but this also isn't holdem where aces are so superior over other hands cause as generic as it sounds having four cards brings someone so much potential especially when they might just need two pair to crack your AAxx because unless you flop a set the hand is going to be difficult for you to improve on so the variance is big but in general a shallow game of jackpot poker is going to have super sick variance.

Yeah, sorry wasn't trying to derail it. Good points thanks. FWIW I think similar.

6% rake in PLO hypers is a lot. I mean, it's a lot in NLHE, too, but short stack PLO is so flippy it's going to hurt more there.

My opinion on PLO Jackpot Hypers (and jackpot hypers in general)

NLHE Jackpot Hypers:
There is obviously a lot of variance...it isn't unusual for people to go allin as a 60% favorite(very regular people go all in with A9 vs KJss...very standard. (Ace high is only 60% favorite...these situations happen quite often)...if you keep getting your chips in as a 60% favorite, then the NLHE hypers are beatable

PLO Jackpot Hypers:
I know PLO equities run much closer to 50% than NLHE equities (granted, i am far from a PLO expert) but it is very possible that a decent PLO player does not have a >56% equity (and thus, losing money to rake in the long run).

If you know how to properly play PLO [which I do not, for the record], I would say...
1. Play properly bankrolled, to survive the variance.
2. Just outplay opponents post-flop in early levels. I have found that maybe people overplay one pair/weak draws...just value bet the **** out of them.


....Also, is it worth it (as a PLO "expert") to be in there when you are playing a PLO hyper turbo with a 20x multiplier? Or 500x multiplier?

Edit: I dabble in a bit of PLO jackpots, for the very reason of "it is fun for me". Its fun for me to get dealt 4 cards, and for me to have outs to everything. Granted, this is far from optimal (and I'm sure, I'm the fish that every PLO player wants to play against) but I still win a decent percent of the time, since PLO equities run so close to 50%. Just survive the variance and profit in the long run

Double Edit: I like to play PLO8, just because I like to win half my money back. Take that for what its worth

I have though of this scenario, from a NLHE perspective

ONLY FOR A 2X MULTIPLIER PERSPECTIVE

What good is it to stick your chips in as a 60% favorite? [I'm not spectacular with PLO odds, but AAxx is like a 60% favorite against most 30% hands right?]. If you lose, you are out. If you win, you are 2-1 chip leader for a 2x multiplier (which is far from a guaranteed win, since you will probably need to survive another 65-35 to win)...

It's the classic weighout of "sticking your chips in with the best hand" vs. waiting for a better spot, even if you may be a slight favorite".

It could be very different in PLO, of course, as most pre-flop hands are only a slight favorite...........

lol if you can get your money in good then do it 60% favorite is **** massive. your absurdly overestimating your edge if you think you expect to do better.

There's nothing to rebut. We got all in on the flop, not pre. You had naked aces, I had something similar to what beerbottlez posted as an example and flopped a pair plus draw equity. You've got me labeled as a fish now because "I stuck it in with 1 pair and played bingo", when in reality I was the favorite with 2 cards to come and it was a very standard short stacked PLO spot tbh.

I understand your frustration, yeah there is a lot of variance in these and YEAH a lot of complete clown play too. We can agree on that for sure.

[QUOTE=glutenfree;47167873] You've got me labeled as a fish now because "I stuck it in with 1 pair and played bingo", when in reality I was the favorite with 2 cards to come and it was a very standard short stacked PLO spot tbh.
/QUOTE]

Don't say that!! Now you're teaching people how to play PLO!!

What do you consider slight? Cause i find a 60/40 pretty good odds in PLO. I'm not saying go all in all the time, as i don't either. It is a conflict but not sure what is best, but i lean towards getting it in when i know i'm ahead. It seems player dependent.

Okay, fair.

NLHE: I consider 60/40 as a slight favorite in hyper SnGs, solely because I find that I lose very often as a 60% favorite. Granted, I win more than I lose (probably, 60% of the time, believe it or not) but still.

PLO I would assume is very different. All in preflop, I can imagine that 60/40 being the maximum favorite that somebody expects to be vs. another hand that calls all-in for a significant number of big blinds.

This is really unfair, don't post a HH, we are talking about a hypothetical hand here with a mystery player. Really isn't a bit fair you deemed it necessary to post another comment and not tell me who you are. Maybe everyone else does but i don't. Cause "stuck it in with 1 pair and call all in's" kinda groups you with most of the PLO JP players.

How do you know I have you labeled a fish? Spying on me? Since you won't tell me your handle, how do I even know whether I have or not?

Really, no matter what the HH says, i'm defenseless.

I understand that, I was looking up AKo, was one of my most dealt hands, lost a lot of blinds off it in tourney's.