when playing 30-60 triple draw on pokerstars i realized that a winning
regular (oogee') sometimes draws 2 at the last draw in medium sized hu pots.

when is it reasonable to draw 2 at the last draw and what are the odds of winning when doing so (with lets say 237 against 3478 and only one draw) ?

thx for your help

Hi Dolmus - Welcome to the forum. Here's a reference to a simulator site listed in the FAQ that might help:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=4619324

And here's the simulation result of the draw in question:
pokenum
2d3d7s/jhqh-3s4s7h8h/ts...
5-card Draw, 2-7 Lowball: 34440 enumerated outcomes
cards.........win.....%win.....lose.....%lose..... tie.....%tie.....EV
7s3d2d......13503...39.21...20910....60.71.....27. ....0.08...0.392
4s3s8h7h...20910...60.71...13503....39.21.....27.. ...0.08...0.608

Offhand, it looks like the two card draw is about a 2:3 underdog.

Assuming you continue regardless of the draw (an obviously incorrect assumption used for comparison only), you have to win $3 when you win for every $2 it costs you to draw. (A casino site would report a $3 win on a $2 investment as a $5 win).

This help?

Buzz

Keep in mind that if you are OOP and your opponent stays pat you are pretty much a dog to any normal patting range. So if your opponent sees you draw 2 on the last round its correct for him to pat a large range of hands.

QFT and this is why doing that is not something that you want to do without a sick read.

LOL.. NQFT

Is there any word on what exactly this range is? It probably won't occur often enough to matter, but I suppose it could be frequent against fish. Approximately what lo is better than a two card draw?

you're right it's not real pertinent. I'm thinking it's something like a queen or a terrible jack. maybe worse. hell, I'd snow it and jam.

KQJTx (where x obviously doesn't pair the hand or complete a straight) is a favourite over 237 going into the last draw. But if you discard the K, you can become a slight underdog.

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