Quote:
Originally Posted by OmahaPerhaps
What's better to have on avg while setting fantasy hand: boat /flush /ace high
Or flush flush 99x
(The 14 cards that I'm setting in fantasy land include optimal possible combinations for both aforementioned setting-options)
The flush flush 99x set combo scores more points than the boat/flush, however Having a boat on bottom is beneficial in case my opponent makes a boat also
So, how likely is it my opponent will make a boat?
Tough spot
To my knowledge, no one's done the math for the likelihood a boat will be made before seeing any of the 17 cards in Pineapple OFC (if someone has, speak up!). So out of position, there's no way to know that yet. However if you're in position and they've set, say, TT9 in back, then according to my #'s they have a 38% likelihood to boat up if all 5 of their outs are live, then descending: 4 - 27% / 3 - 16% /2 - 6%
Also agree flush/flush 99. The ground you hold by boating the back is probably lost with the A high front, since that set is unlikely to scoop, bringing your scoop equity closer to 1 than 6. But if you flush the back and get beat by the boat, you only lose 2 points in royalty equity there while making up 4 pts in front. The quality of your boat matters as well; if it's bad then you might as well be putting the flush back there, esp with the 4pt buffer.
It could be player-dependent if you knew your opponent's tendencies - for example, if you knew your villain would likely go for FL to try to offset yours, I would expect a higher number of non-nut-flush-, straight- and two-pair-type back rows, as aggro setting for FL often dictates getting there any way you can, in which case the (A-high, I assume) flush would be good a higher % of the time and the boat is redundant and loses 2 points in royalty equity. If they were, however, wanting to defend your FL right then and there, they might be more likely to set for the boat, which might make your A-high front good, I would say it could depend on kickers.
I agree this is an interesting spot - I think if you couldn't decide what to do, you could probably factor in ~20% opponent fouls into the overall EV, and that might be the tipping point.
