Quote:
Originally Posted by Double Down
Risking losing 6 points for a shot at 4 for the flush isn't worth it against just one opponent.
.
We only lose 6 if we foul or are scooped. Otherwise, we are really risking loosing 1. When we win with a flush we are winning 4 *plus* other lines, so we are winning 5, or 10 if we scoop.
When our flush matures in back, we can build a very strong middle hand that can support a royalty pair on top.
For these reasons, breaking a SINGLE pair for a three flush in back has substantial advantages.
In the case of
X
TT
562.
We risk a foul if we fail to make the flush in back. BUT, with a TT middle, we can put the next 6 through 9 that come up top In The first two spots, looking to make a royalty pair worth between 1 and 4 points.
If we fail to spike the 4th
by 7th street, then we take the first 5,6,2 that falls, looking to make two pair or trips in back. If the 4th flush card comes before we pair the back, then we continue to look to finish the flush. If the 4th flush card was J+ then we can take the next of that value to make a JJ+ pair if it comes before the flush
While it is true we make the flush only 50%, hitting the flush is worth more than 4 points because we have the potential royalties in top PLUS the greater chance of scooping our opponent.
Remember that winning two lines is only worth one point. Winning all three is worth 6. Winning only one line is worth -1.
Flush back, strong pair middle and royalty pair top is the best chance to scoop. If our final hand is
797
TTK38
562JQ
We are going to scoop much of the time for a total of 12 points. If we fail to scoop (say lose middle) then we still get 7 points.
Compare that to the Initial set of TT2/56/x where we might end up with
7JQ
56K37
TT289
Depending on how the cards fall, we might have to avoid fouling and end up with no pair in the middle - this hand is not likely to scoop, though is has a good chance to block a scoop, so is probably worth -1. If the cards fall in an order that we can make a Better middle, such as:
9JQ
56K77
TT283
Then we might win the top two, and only lose in back, for +1. But still a weak hand that is overall a loser, and only scoops if our opponent fouls.
Last edited by AlienBoy; 05-05-2013 at 09:45 PM.