Converted by the cows of Feral Cow Poker
Full Tilt Pot Limit 5 Card Draw $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players

SB: $2.27 (Hero)
BB: $0.29
UTG: $1.00
UTG+1: $1.55
CO: $1.59
Button: $1.44

Dealing Hands: ($0.03) (6 players)
UTG+1 calls $0.02, CO folds, Button calls $0.02, Hero folds, BB checks, BB discards 3, UTG+1 discards 4, Button discards 1, BB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.06, Button folds, BB calls $0.06

First Draw: ($0.19) (3 players)

BB mucked
UTG+1 showed , a flush, Ace high
UTG+1 won $0.18
(Rake: $0.01)

how is probability to make flush after discard 4 cards?
Can I calculate in this way?:
deck 52 cards - 13 cards in same suit, I have one card in suit I+4 cards offsuit, I discard 52-5=47 so (12/47)*(11/46)*(10/45)*(9/44)= 3/1081=0.00277=0.277%
deck 32 cards (from 7 do ace) - 8 cards in same suit (7/27)*(6/26)*(5/25)*(4/24)=7/3510=0.0019=0.19%

Depends on the perspective you choose. From Hero's perspective, since he sees one spade and four other cards, if Villain is drawing four cards to one spade (presuming Villain did not discard any spades), there are 11 missing spades and 31 missing other cards. The number of ways for Villain to catch four spades is
C(11,4)=11*10*9*8/1/2/3/4=330.
The number of ways to draw any four cards is
C(42,4)=42*41*40*39/1/2/3/4=111930.
Thus the probability is 330/111930=0.00295, about one in 339.

From Villain's perspective, since he sees one spade and four other cards, (presuming Villain did not discard any spades), there are 12 missing spades and 35 missing other cards. The number of ways for Villain to catch four spades is
C(12,4)=12*11*10*9/1/2/3/4=495.
The number of ways to draw any four cards is
C(47,4)=47*46*45*44/1/2/3/4=178365.
Thus the probability is 495/178365=0.00278, about one in 360.

Yes. That's about the same as I got for Villain's perspective. (I rounded differently to show 0.00278 rather than 0.00277).

I don't know what you're doing there.

Buzz

You should also remember that there are many hands that UTG+1 can hit that are surprising, which are not necessarily a flush. True, the probability that he hits a flush is only ~1/500 or whatever, but he can also hit broadway, a wheel, aces up, trip aces, etc. Combined, it's probably something like ~3% that he draws to a surprisingly strong hand.

I'm not trying to justify his play (predraw it's obviously pretty terrible), but the odds aren't THAT infinitesimal that he draws 4 and picks up something ridiculous.