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Is this completely Suicidal Play? Is this completely Suicidal Play?

08-11-2012 , 10:22 AM
I played this hand a couple of months ago at my local casino at the £1/£1 game. Had been doing well was up like 350 so had a stack of £550.
My friend in the CO opens to £7, I call on the button with 89, SB (Villain) a relatively tight aggressive player who has shown a couple of big folds, calls the raise and the BB jams for £26, CO (£400) calls , i call, Villain (£350) calls. So there is a side pot of £105.
Flop
J109
Villain bets £40, he has donk lead a few times tonight, not seen a showdown against him yet, CO calls, I call.
Turn
5
Villain bets £80 leaving roughly £250 behind, CO folds, I jam.
At the time i convinced myself this was a good idea, as it is so hard for him to call with less than two pair, i have plenty of outs and my hand kind of looks like the nuts the way I played it. Although in hindsight having thought about this hand quite a lot, he has put in over a third of his chips, and the chances of him bluffing into a dry sidepot and two players with 175bbs + seems insane to with a bluff or marginal holdings.
And that i was easily getting the odds to call the turn bet then either fold river or value bet if flush comes as my f/d is disguised fairly well so could get good pay off.
Is this a really bad shove?
08-11-2012 , 10:35 AM
I have probably posted this in wrong section
08-11-2012 , 12:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaggleboney
I have probably posted this in wrong section
Yes, it will probably get moved.
But, since you're here, I would comment that 1) You correctly point out that he's probably not bluffing here; 2) but (the real problem) is that none of your outs are to the nuts. Your shove is really a bluff with limited semi-bluff value.
You have bottom pair, weak kicker, and non-nut straight and flush draws. He might possibly fold a better hand than yours to your shove, but it is not so hard for him to call you with less than two pair (but still be ahead of you), if he has top pair and straight and/or flush draws (which if he has them, are probably better than yours).
But even calling to see the river is problematic. Even if you do hit either your straight or flush, you won't have the nuts or close to it. So be careful about assuming that you'll be the one getting paid.
You might want to go back and look at your call on the flop (with bottom pair, weak kicker, bottom straight draw, possible straight already out there). Calling here is what got you into this spot.
08-12-2012 , 11:37 AM
yes... bad play. and more so when you consider the level... 1/1
08-12-2012 , 02:23 PM
I've realised i pretty much write the answer here in second paragraph. lol. Just wanted confirmation cheers.
Turns out he calls with 10's i river a queen to take the pot. Still had 30% equity but stupid shove in hindsight.
08-13-2012 , 10:29 PM
Try to always think about how your hand looks to your opponents. When you call on a 9TJ flop, they're either going to have you smoked on the turn, or give up when the obvious straight hits. I understand you had an open ended straight draw, but you had an OBVIOUS straight draw, and nobody is going to put another cent in when the board reads 9TJQ or 79TJ. Unless of course they already have the nuts. There is no expectation anyone is folding the turn at this point since he's basically pot committed himself and will probably even call with KK+ and chalk up his bad luck to a "running bad" if he loses. Since nobody expects anyone to ever flop the nuts that often, jamming/raising the flop doesnt help either, since they quite simply wont believe you often enough to fold this early. If he just calls a flop raise and checks the turn then he MIGHT fold to a shove, and thats about the best you can ever hope for in this spot.

      
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