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Originally Posted by t_roy
Where are you getting this?
Search for a post by me with "Certainty Equivalent" in the title in the SSLHE forum.
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It seems to me that you're overestimating how large poker profits need to be in order to be equivalent to a real job.
I readily accept there is a large gap between my number and popular belief. Am I overestimating or is everyone underestimating?
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It's not like your yearly income playing 2/5 is going to vary 50k depending on how you run (I don't believe.)
If you have a 5 bb/hr WR, 60 bb/hr SD, and play 1,500 hr/yr, your confidence limits are 2,900-12,100 bb/yr. That is, with 95% confidence, you could make as little as $14k and as much as $60k. Not quite $50k difference, but a 4x spread none the less.
- There are those who think because they win 10 bb/hr playing at the juiciest 10 hr/week, they can sustain that rate for 30 hr/week.
- There are those who think their variance is smaller because their sanple size is small and just haven't hit an actual rough patch.
- There are those who think they can put in 2,500-3,000 hours of play per year. This is generally an overetimate, especially for larger games that may not be available 24/7.
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It just seems that the CE/WR ratio will vary wildly based on your savings, risk tolerance, and living situation.
It does. There's an equation in the thread and you can play with the numbers. It will generally be between 0.3-0.6.
You have to realize that I'm being realistic, not pessimistic.
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If you can live comfortably on half of your expected win rate, then the intangibles are a huge factor. For most people, doing something that they enjoy for a living will make them infinitely happier than having a few extra thousand in the bank anyway.
If you're giving up a $50k job for $50k winnings, over a career this adds up to several hundred thousand worth of CE.
The CE model is based on the desirability for exponential growth in your assets. Gambling, especially poker, has two negatives:
- Winnings are linear, and exponential growth in stakes is generally not possible.
- Downswings are murderous, so that one catastrophic month that you will inevitably have in a lifetime really hurts.
Most successful pros end up supplementing their income with a high-CE income stream - passive investments, coaching, etc.