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Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad?

04-10-2019 , 03:55 PM
Playing in a tournament, had established a nice stack then these two hands back to back. Have questions about all streets.

Hand One:

3rd is at least a call, but heads up is it ever worth a raise?

4th - free rolling to half, a raise? my hand doesn't have a lot of scoop potential

5th - this was the tough spot. i'm now clearly drawing to half as i assume that two pair is no longer going to be good.

6th - i have to call to get my money back, right? furthermore, i'm hoping the two live Kings are new outs to scoop

7th - whoops.

Winning Poker, 7 Stud H/L Limit - $800/$1,600 ($160 ante) - 7 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

Seat 4: $7,568.00 (9 bb)
Seat 5: $31,432.00 (39 bb)
Seat 6: $7,952.00 (10 bb)
Seat 7: $4,932.00 (6 bb)
Seat 1: $14,362.00 (18 bb)
Seat 2: $10,000.00 (13 bb)
Seat 3 (Hero): $26,500.00 (33 bb)

Third Street: ($1,120) Hero is in Seat 3
4 2 5 Hero bring-in $240____Hero calls $560
Xx Xx Q UTG folds
Xx Xx K UTG+1 folds
Xx Xx A MP folds
Xx Xx J MP+1 folds
Xx Xx 6 CO folds
Xx Xx T BTN raises to $800

Fourth Street: ($2,720) (2 players)
Xx Xx T 7 BTN bets $800
4 2 5 8 Hero calls $800

Fifth Street: ($4,320) (2 players)
Xx Xx T 7 7 BTN bets $1,600
4 2 5 8 2 Hero calls $1,600

Sixth Street: ($7,520) (2 players)
Xx Xx T 7 7 5 BTN bets $1,600
4 2 5 8 2 K Hero calls $1,600

Seventh Street: ($10,720) (2 players)
Xx Xx T 7 7 5 Xx BTN bets $1,600____BTN raises to $4,800
4 2 5 8 2 K 2 Hero raises to $3,200____Hero calls $1,600




Hand Two:

3rd - So many dead low cards, all Queens and Nines live. obvious open.

4th - Standard?

5th - He bricks and I pile up live two pair outs.

6th - And there is one of them! Is betting wrong here? I am putting a 2 in his 3rd street range, so maybe he has paired up. What say you?

7th - Is there ever not a check call?


Winning Poker, 7 Stud H/L Limit - $800/$1,600 ($160 ante) - 7 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

Seat 6: $7,792.00 (10 bb)
Seat 7: $4,772.00 (6 bb)
Seat 1: $14,202.00 (18 bb)
Seat 2: $20,560.00 (26 bb)
Seat 3 (Hero): $16,740.00 (21 bb)
Seat 4: $7,408.00 (9 bb)
Seat 5: $31,272.00 (39 bb)

Third Street: ($1,120) Hero is in Seat 3
Xx Xx 4 BI bring-in $240____BI calls $560
Xx Xx 5 UTG folds
Xx Xx 5 UTG+1 folds
Xx Xx 6 MP folds
Xx Xx K MP+1 folds
Q 9 Q Hero raises to $800
Xx Xx 4 BTN folds

Fourth Street: ($2,720) (2 players)
Q 9 Q A Hero bets $800
Xx Xx 4 3 BI calls $800

Fifth Street: ($4,320) (2 players)
Q 9 Q A T Hero bets $1,600
Xx Xx 4 3 K BI calls $1,600

Sixth Street: ($7,520) (2 players)
Q 9 Q A T T Hero bets $1,600____Hero calls $1,600
Xx Xx 4 3 K 2 BI raises to $3,200

Seventh Street: ($13,920) (2 players)
Q 9 Q A T T 6 Hero checks____Hero calls $1,600
Xx Xx 4 3 K 2 Xx BI bets $1,600
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-10-2019 , 05:28 PM
I’d raise 4th in hand 1. Hand 2 is fine.
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-10-2019 , 09:17 PM
Hand one, raising back on Third is a mistake. I see a lot of bad players do it and a few good ones, but it's a mistake. Your hand is such that all bricks are 100 percent brick, no backdoor flush or connection to higher cards, so you won't pick up equity often enough, and with a low door the hands you rep will not get you any folds.

Don't listen to ninefingershuffle about raising Fourth, it's bad and wrong and he should not have said that. You build some modest FE if you raise and catch a perfect straight card on Six, but villain already has a Seven blocker and if you brick you will get led into, so you don't earn a free card with a raise like you might in stud hi. Also, you can brick high and be out of position, where you will either give a free card or be forced to c/c.

You can't fold Fifth even in a tournament. You now have backdoors and a low draw, and if the Ten could have been on a steal with something like 98 ith you may yet have two-pair outs.

I don't think the river raise is wrong, but since you didn't raise Fifth or Sixth when you could have had a made low, a 3bet is going to be bad news most of the time if you raise, so in a tournament I don't think flatting is awful. That's following the Caro principle: If a three-bet will make you puke, don't raise.
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-10-2019 , 09:21 PM
Hand two seems normal. Some people check 4th because a bet is going in anyway and that way only one bet goes in, since villain has a good raise with all his straight draws.
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-11-2019 , 04:00 AM
Hand 1 I like 2-betting 3rd. Raise is probably okay on the river but only if you can make the disciplined fold to the 3b.

Hand 2 I prefer to check 4 but play the rest the same.
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-11-2019 , 10:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by electrical
Hand one, raising back on Third is a mistake. I see a lot of bad players do it and a few good ones, but it's a mistake. Your hand is such that all bricks are 100 percent brick, no backdoor flush or connection to higher cards, so you won't pick up equity often enough, and with a low door the hands you rep will not get you any folds.

Don't listen to ninefingershuffle about raising Fourth, it's bad and wrong and he should not have said that. You build some modest FE if you raise and catch a perfect straight card on Six, but villain already has a Seven blocker and if you brick you will get led into, so you don't earn a free card with a raise like you might in stud hi. Also, you can brick high and be out of position, where you will either give a free card or be forced to c/c.

You can't fold Fifth even in a tournament. You now have backdoors and a low draw, and if the Ten could have been on a steal with something like 98 ith you may yet have two-pair outs.

I don't think the river raise is wrong, but since you didn't raise Fifth or Sixth when you could have had a made low, a 3bet is going to be bad news most of the time if you raise, so in a tournament I don't think flatting is awful. That's following the Caro principle: If a three-bet will make you puke, don't raise.
If villain had a king or ace up, I’d agree with flatting fourth. But he has a ten and I think we have more gold equity than you think when we raise. If we catch any low card, he then has to cal three streets hoping for a chop. I’d like to win the whole pot.
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-11-2019 , 02:16 PM
#1:

3rd can go either way. I'd lean towards raising just in case villain is trying to steal. If I know villain is never stealing then I'd just call. One advantage to raising against a ten is there's times you brick and pair ur brick, which beats tens.

Against tens or rolled tens, ur coin flipping:
ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: qkjta6
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
24550.31% 195,802201,02420318,257100
tt49.69% 192,115398,9562012,070100

Against 3 flush cards, ur a decent favorite:
ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: qkjta6
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
24555.64% 233,806258,55787299,405367
ss / Ts44.36% 166,189341,3568745,342367

rest look fine. I'm guessing he filled up and you got unlucky OTR
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-11-2019 , 02:25 PM
#2

I normally check 4th, but since there's so many dead cards AND villain was the bring-in, I think I like betting again just in case villain is defending a hand he shouldn't be. If we change the 9 in our hole to a baby card, I'd snap bet. If one of our queen was dead, I'd prolly just check. All this is just fractions of equity though on a spot that is prolly just really close to 50/50, so it prolly really doesn't matter what happens on 4th.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 556k4
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
qq9a50.68% 184,485423,684200
$L$L 4349.32% 176,314176,3142320,4130
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-11-2019 , 02:55 PM
5th: bet (he's very likely on a low draw given no raises yet). Betting makes you decent money as ur a decent favorite against a low draw.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 4556K
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
q9qaT58.15% 253,050444,802000
$L$L / 43K41.85% 155,198155,1980234,0410

6th: bet ur 2 pairs (he could have paired his low card):

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 4556K
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
q9qaTT58.21% 209,967488,574000
$L$L / 43K241.79% 111,426111,4260334,3340

7th: do not fold (he could just have a razz hand)

Last edited by tiger415; 04-11-2019 at 03:02 PM.
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-11-2019 , 03:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ninefingershuffle
I’d raise 4th in hand 1. Hand 2 is fine.
This exact hand is a slight equity favorite against an actual pair of tens.

I think I prefer raising 4th in hand 1 just to add tilt equity! It also discourages villain from auto cbetting 4th in the future when I do defend a **** hand from the bring in (that helps me I think).

The argument to just calling is our range consists of a ton of pairs or really razzy hands that rarely scoops or really bad hands we brought in with. It helps to just call some low hands so we can have made lows on 5th and keep villain guessing when we do catch another baby. Hopefully villain folds (esp when we pair up or have 23478 or have pretty much nothing) in those scenarios.

All in all, ur edge or leak isn’t gonna come from this spot on this street imo

Last edited by tiger415; 04-11-2019 at 04:04 PM.
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-11-2019 , 08:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by electrical
Hand one, raising back on Third is a mistake. I see a lot of bad players do it and a few good ones, but it's a mistake. Your hand is such that all bricks are 100 percent brick, no backdoor flush or connection to higher cards, so you won't pick up equity often enough, and with a low door the hands you rep will not get you any folds.

Don't listen to ninefingershuffle about raising Fourth, it's bad and wrong and he should not have said that. You build some modest FE if you raise and catch a perfect straight card on Six, but villain already has a Seven blocker and if you brick you will get led into, so you don't earn a free card with a raise like you might in stud hi. Also, you can brick high and be out of position, where you will either give a free card or be forced to c/c.

You can't fold Fifth even in a tournament. You now have backdoors and a low draw, and if the Ten could have been on a steal with something like 98 ith you may yet have two-pair outs.

I don't think the river raise is wrong, but since you didn't raise Fifth or Sixth when you could have had a made low, a 3bet is going to be bad news most of the time if you raise, so in a tournament I don't think flatting is awful. That's following the Caro principle: If a three-bet will make you puke, don't raise.
If hand one is multi way by even one more player does this change your play on third at all?
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-11-2019 , 10:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Go Get It
If hand one is multi way by even one more player does this change your play on third at all?
Assuming Treys are live I would raise if another low card enters passively. If it's an Ace and he raises in, I flat. This is a very good multiway starting hand, but against an Ace I prefer to let the Ace drive the action. We can make some big hands and get extra bets in and don't self-own as often.
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-12-2019 , 12:56 PM
I would raise third in Hand 1. I'm open to the idea that it's a mistake but not sure that 54% equity of this hand vs a $L$L,T*,ss,RR,A*,KQ,KJ,QJ,J9|Ts completing range qualifies by itself, let alone within our range that includes overpairs to split tens and a few pocket pairs that can trip up. Plus, we're putting pressure on a 10 big bet short stack that may be reluctant to see the hand hand through with other shorties at the table.
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-13-2019 , 12:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Munga30
I would raise third in Hand 1. I'm open to the idea that it's a mistake but not sure that 54% equity of this hand vs a $L$L,T*,ss,RR,A*,KQ,KJ,QJ,J9|Ts completing range qualifies by itself, let alone within our range that includes overpairs to split tens and a few pocket pairs that can trip up. Plus, we're putting pressure on a 10 big bet short stack that may be reluctant to see the hand hand through with other shorties at the table.
thinking more about it,

3rd is just a snap raise. At worst we're coin flipping. At best, we get a fold right away OR he tries drawing to a hand with 40-45% equity
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-13-2019 , 02:58 PM
electrical, you said in h1 that all bricks are 100% brick: but we have 24ss. so turning a 9s-Ks isn't a pure brick, right? or are you trying to say that still isn't quite enough?
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-13-2019 , 06:28 PM
Ah, I didn't see ss, very slightly better yes. Lee me ponder if the 0.64% bonus that gives us in equity offsets the poor playability of our hand with a bricked street enough to want to raise Third...

I think still no. With a villain range of all pairs in the hole, all Tens, all spade draws and all broadway threes, we go from a slight underdog to an extremely slight underdog by suiting the small cards, but we cannot just commit to showdown blindfolded, so I think we need to discount that. I mean, do we call down four more streets if we pair deuces on the chance he whiffed one of his no-pair hands?
ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: A 6 Q K J
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
2s4s5h49.66% 196,905204,91732301,60095
22+, *s*s, T*, QJ+ Ts50.34% 201,026395,0513215,66495
ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: A 6 Q K J
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
2c4s5h49.02% 190,797199,27336301,789123
22+, *s*s, T*, QJ+ Ts50.98% 202,602400,6913617,296123

I think the difference between this hand and a similar hand containing an Ace is huge, and it's a mistake to conflate/equate these hands.

(I have edited this four times now to get the tables to display correctly wtf)

Last edited by electrical; 04-13-2019 at 06:48 PM. Reason: fkn magnets
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-13-2019 , 07:01 PM
How have I never noticed this graphing function before?
Here's the unsuited version, showing that we'll never have >65% equity on the next street but can have less than 30%. We'll be a flip or tiny favorite half the time, but half the time we'll be a bigger dog on the next card, which is kinda what I was getting at.

Here's the suited version, which is a little bit better but we still lose the flop.
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-13-2019 , 07:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by electrical
How have I never noticed this graphing function before?
Here's the unsuited version, showing that we'll never have >65% equity on the next street but can have less than 30%. We'll be a flip or tiny favorite half the time, but half the time we'll be a bigger dog on the next card, which is kinda what I was getting at.

Here's the suited version, which is a little bit better but we still lose the flop.
ur actually right on this. i was wondering why 245 was a favorite over TT when i ran it by itself when i remembered clearly a big pair is a favorite over a low draw. i got my syntax wrong and didn't separate the dead cards.

yeah prolly better to not re-raise 245, because it isn't an equity edge over a non-steal. i mean it's close. re-raise or not, it won't matter in the long run.

Last edited by tiger415; 04-13-2019 at 07:33 PM.
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-13-2019 , 07:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by electrical

(I have edited this four times now to get the tables to display correctly wtf)
the infamous |
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-13-2019 , 09:53 PM
Hand one I Raise 4th , bet 5th. Represent the low made. Many players will fold even some good hands thinking they are hoping to only get half. But if it is a player like OmarTuggy (not a folder, HUGE donk) then slow down and hope to make your low!

Also, this late in the tournament, when people buy in late and start playing their very first hand like a maniac, they might not have anything. Lot's of people who don't know the first thing about high low might be pushing hands like QJT and you are even better off than you think

Last edited by JustMarty; 04-13-2019 at 09:58 PM. Reason: Add on
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-14-2019 , 04:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by electrical
Ah, I didn't see ss, very slightly better yes. Lee me ponder if the 0.64% bonus that gives us in equity offsets the poor playability of our hand with a bricked street enough to want to raise Third...

I think still no. With a villain range of all pairs in the hole, all Tens, all spade draws and all broadway threes, we go from a slight underdog to an extremely slight underdog by suiting the small cards, but we cannot just commit to showdown blindfolded, so I think we need to discount that. I mean, do we call down four more streets if we pair deuces on the chance he whiffed one of his no-pair hands?
ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: A 6 Q K J
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
2s4s5h49.66% 196,905204,91732301,60095
22+, *s*s, T*, QJ+ Ts50.34% 201,026395,0513215,66495
ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: A 6 Q K J
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
2c4s5h49.02% 190,797199,27336301,789123
22+, *s*s, T*, QJ+ Ts50.98% 202,602400,6913617,296123

I think the difference between this hand and a similar hand containing an Ace is huge, and it's a mistake to conflate/equate these hands.

(I have edited this four times now to get the tables to display correctly wtf)
You think a last position ten has the playability advantage over a 5 that 2b????
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-14-2019 , 09:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolldUpTrips
You think a last position ten has the playability advantage over a 5 that 2b????
Yes, of course. We only improve our board with low cards, meaning any of our incidental pairs will be low, and any big cards are safe for the Ten. In this spot with an Ace and a Six out I'd much prefer to have something like (67)8 or (A7)8 than 245 against a Ten.

That seems pretty obvious to me.

Of course there are some players who will abandon a hi hand against any low board, so count your blessings if that's who's at your table, but I don't think we can presume that sort of thing.
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-14-2019 , 03:13 PM
raising 3rd and 4th is dependent on how wide villain is. if he'll open any T on the button, go ahead and raise 3rd (or 4th) and mixing it up is fine. it seems really nitty to not raise the river but given the steal and given that he could think you think he's just barreling, you may want to just flat although I can't say this isn't results oriented. If you'd put a raise in there at some point he probably isn't just barreling, but you haven't defined his hand or yours at all.

check fourth in hand 2.
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-14-2019 , 03:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by electrical
Yes, of course. We only improve our board with low cards, meaning any of our incidental pairs will be low, and any big cards are safe for the Ten. In this spot with an Ace and a Six out I'd much prefer to have something like (67)8 or (A7)8 than 245 against a Ten.

That seems pretty obvious to me.

Of course there are some players who will abandon a hi hand against any low board, so count your blessings if that's who's at your table, but I don't think we can presume that sort of thing.
thanks to everyone who chimed in. lots of good stuff. what steve wrote about counting your blessings when you find a person who will abandon a high hand against a low board is what drove me to check. i'm just not seeing that very much in this particular session (or shall i say, my multiple sessions against the same people who play in these tournaments) - with that in mind, sure, on fourth i'm pretty close wrapping up half, but the lack of scoop cards makes me less motivated to put money in.
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote
04-14-2019 , 03:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by electrical
Yes, of course. We only improve our board with low cards, meaning any of our incidental pairs will be low, and any big cards are safe for the Ten. In this spot with an Ace and a Six out I'd much prefer to have something like (67)8 or (A7)8 than 245 against a Ten.

That seems pretty obvious to me.

Of course there are some players who will abandon a hi hand against any low board, so count your blessings if that's who's at your table, but I don't think we can presume that sort of thing.
you're saying a dead A+6 hurts 245 more than it hurts 678 or A78 HU vs the T?


also change that 2 to a 7 for 4578 on 4th street and that's a pretty standard raise, right?

Last edited by kisada; 04-14-2019 at 04:06 PM.
Two Stud8 Hands - Did I get unlucky, or am I just bad? Quote

      
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