Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokerlogist
In hand 2, on 4th st you are like 60% so the raise is correct.
On 5th I think you are ahead too, like 55% (assumming foe as something like A9 for pair of nines) since you still have very live flush draw (~40%) plus some outs to two pair /trips.
on 6th foes pairs and you don't improve so check/call, not bet
imho 4th and 5th correct, 6th 7th not.
Minor quibble, but I think in the second hand it's the liveness of the flush that makes it one you can play reasonably fast even up to 5th, not the pair/trip outs. If you're counting on pair outs on 5th, when you have 98244 and there are two nines, two eights, and one two out. I'm probably misstating your position, but the point I want to make is that the pair outs for this hand are really really dead, and you probably wouldn't want to play it too far if it weren't for the fact that the flush outs which are stronger are so live.
Otherwise, I agree with this post, in the sense that you are a favorite if he only has one pair up to 6th street. Giving him a pair of tens down, since I think a pair of nines is unlikely since 3 are accounted for, and it's a more pessimistic scenario where you can't pair up and take the lead right away, you're about 58-42 on 4th and 5th. So you can play as aggressively as you want, depending on how much you want to to deal with variance. 6th, yes, don't bet here. His board isn't conducive with many draws, so he probably started with a pair, and now the pair outs you did have, minimal as they were, are almost certainly worthless. 7th I've mentioned already