Well, we wouldn't have to read all these damned razz threads anymore.

Playing only 3-card 8's + obv steals isn't optimum strategy for FTP low stakes tables to begin with, and tightening up more isn't likely to help. I suspect you may be giving opponents too much credit for a hand/skill if there is a major leak.
This is always -EV

Perhaps I am playing too tight. That's what the advice has been from 2 of the 3 people that have looked at my HHs. I'll probably start stealing a little bit more and calling when things break badly on 4th with strong 3-card hands.

On the other hand, for the past ~1,500 hands, my win at showdown is ~40% which seems very low. For example, 2 days ago:




Well, apparently my being alive is rapidly depleting my bankroll (-EV), while jumping off a bridge would likely preserve it (neutral EV). So I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree here, lol.

400 or 1500 hands is not enough to get any meaningful stats, but in that session you only went to showdown 12% of the time and won money 33% of the showdowns. That means you are not getting to SD enough and not winning enough when you do. I would say that you were just getting hammered by variance in that session.

The relative EV of killing myself is looking better every day.






All hands from today where I either won or lost at least one small bet are posted here. Pots that were 12+BB are in bold. (Didn't want to use pokerhand.org, but couldn't figure out a better way to post them without having a 14-screen post. There is a handy replayer there, though.)

In case you find this format intolerable, PM me and I'll send you the HH text or Popopop .xml files for review. Then you can find my 30BB/hour leaks, lol.

WINS

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569746 standard
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569756 standard
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569766 standard
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569767 standard
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569796 do I c/c the river if he bets?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569798 limp to outflop... I did. standard
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569803 standard
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569806 standard

LOSSES

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569717 How dumb was my river bluff? Is a check-fold better?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569733 A horrible river crying call. Was probably tilting or misread my hand.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569740 Should I have made a crying call here, too?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569768 folded a rough draw
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569775 Another crying call...
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569776 Is this also a crying call getting 15:1?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569779 #$@% !! Maybe I am folding too much after 3rd, but should have given this guy more credit.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569782 missed a bet on 5th... or maybe I was playing for deception. Judging by the chat, I think it worked. Of course, I catch bad bad...
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569785 standard
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569789 standard
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569791 Had to call on 4th against a loose donk. Had to fold 5th, I think.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569793 standard

I agree that 1500 hands is not a lot. How many hands comprise a significant sample?

Short answer: "I don't know."

Longer answer: There were many threads on this, some of which had math, in the small stakes limit holdem forum a few years ago. The number of hands needed depends on what stat you are interested in--fewer for VPIP, more for BB/100. Anyway, the consensus was tens of thousands or hands are required for the output-type stats like BB/100 or w$@sd. I usually tell people to pay no attention to the output-type stats until they have 10k hands in the db.

Allegedly 12 million wasn't enough, so we may never know.

I think stealing antes is really undervalued by many players. If you look at an example from FTP $1/$2 game with 8 players. There is $1.60 in antes plus $0.25 BI for $1.85 that you are trying to steal. This is over .9bb. How much of an impact on your winrate will being able to steal the antes 1 or 2 extra times per hundred have?

Even when you aren't successful at stealing but are called, you still can pick up the pot on 4th/5th by getting your opponent to fold.

It seems to me that it can shift a marginally losing player into a winning player and a marginally winning player up another level.

Little things add up over time in limit games. Definitely not to be overlooked. Sklansky spends a fair amount of time on it in the 3rd steet section of SOR for a reason.

QFT

One thing that isn't covered in SOR is what happens at loose tables where your steal attempts are often called by players with bad hands. This is not a reason to quit stealing entirely. If your steal is more of a semibluff (which is covered in SOR), then when you have (K3)2 and the villain has (T5)7 you may not take down the pot on 3rd st. but you're not in bad shape at all.

Thing is that many people will throw several BB after a failed ante steal often enough to neutralize most of the positive effects of their successes.

This is true - one needs the discipline to be able fold when the steal fails.

I mean I have seen I dont know how many times recently, in razz games, the last low card fold when its folded to them and even the person to the right of the BI fold when its folded to them. These are like free money spots that are passed on.

SG: pure ante steals with 1-card hands should probably not be made in loose games. Sklansky talks about maybe only trying ante steals or semi bluffing with 2 card hands, for 1 when called, if you catch good on 4th and they catch bad, you are back even at worse. so if they then call 4th you are in ok shape. i rarely try steals with 1card hands because of this.

That was my point. Relegate your pure steals (1-card hands) to situations like in your first paragraph, but for pete's sake don't miss out on those!

From listening's Razz blog
"...At this level, there is a 1% chance of a 235BB downswing. And that, it seems to me, is where the standard advice comes from to have a 300BB bankroll."



(Many HHs are missing in PTS to PT3 moving my HHs around).



*kablooey realizes he's 250BB down in razz over ~3500 hands/2 weeks and wonders if his 4400BB bankroll is big enough

from those hands you posted, you need to fold more fourth and especially sixth streets/you're blindly betting your board when behind too often.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3569740 <----- fold sixth here and in every hand like it when villain is remotely competent, ducy?

What makes you suspect villain is competent? meh, if you're going to fold 6th, fold 4th instead. If you're going to call 6th, call 7th too.