Villain is pretty new, no reads.

Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 Limit Razz $0.05 Ante - 6 players
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3rd Street: (0.6 SB)
Seat 2: xx xx 7____Seat 2 folds
Hero: 8 5 7___Hero raises
Seat 4: xx xx K____Seat 4 brings in for $0.25____Seat 4 calls
Seat 5: xx xx Q____Seat 5 folds
Seat 6: xx xx 5____Seat 6 folds
Seat 7: xx xx 9____Seat 7 folds

4th Street: (2.6 SB) (2 players)
Hero: 8 5 7 J___Hero checks
Seat 4: xx xx K A____Seat 4 checks

5th Street: (1.3 BB) (2 players)
Hero: 8 5 7 J 4___Hero bets
Seat 4: xx xx K A 9____Seat 4 calls

6th Street: (3.3 BB) (2 players)
Hero: 8 5 7 J 4 Q___Hero bets
I got mixed up and misread my hand at the time (playing beyond the time I should have stopped) and thought I made an 8 so I bet.

Seat 4: xx xx K A 9 3____Seat 4 calls


7th Street: (5.3 BB) (2 players)
Hero: 8 5 7 J 4 Q 6___Hero ????
Seat 4: xx xx K A 9 3 xx____Seat 4

bet river, he'll pay you off with any 9

b/c 4th+7th, try c/r 5th s.t.

And further, based on him just calling you on 6th, that's probably the best hand he can make.

Missing the bet on 4th is a very large error. Perhaps you were going for a check/raise. Against some opponents this may not be that bad, although at these stakes, we should be betting here.

Even against K321 your quite a bit ahead. If he defended with a 9 down your absolutely destroying him, even a fairly strong for him and bad for you K641 your 55% of the equity.

On the river, the hand equity isnt an issue, either we are ahead or were not, but if you run 9-8-KA93 * hes only passed us 13% of the time. I would say that leaves an incredible pile of nine high hands that he will be calling us with. He may somewhat frequently check behind a made nine, because our board/action looks like a made 8/9.

I actually do like the bet on 6th. If he plays loose to defend, then we are ahead, and if he plays pretty snug to defend, then we are further ahead because he has paired so much. If he folds with a board pair and a king up, thats just freaking awesome for our hand. Obviously he should just about never fold.

4Card

I disagree that missing a bet on 4th is a large error. It's a technical equity error, and more of an error at low stakes where villains will defend bad hands, but if villain has two good card including an Ace then the equity on Fourth is still quite volatile and it's perfectly fine to take a card, because the equities can invert and will usually solidify on Fifth, at which point you can play the rest of the hand with ease.

Essentially, we cannot force our opponent to make a mistake on Fourth if he is prone to call and has two good cards in the hole, but we can make him play all three BB streets incorrectly by letting Fourth check through if the Fifth card favors us, and in any case the hand is easier for us to play later if the pot stays small on Fourth.

Rest of the hand, bet, check, bet. Villain's flat on Six gives you the green light on the river even UI, but if you check he maybe takes a shot there so a bet goes in anyway, and if he checks it back then you still have a green light to bet the river UI.

Betting 4th can go both ways. Sure the ace is in his prime pairing range and we're a small equity favorite if he didn't pair but we have horrible RIO when we catch decent on 5th and he catches great on 5th. Playing early-street equity advantages passively in razz (especially vs. novice players) can help us get more big bets in on later streets and make us more money.

Also, the bet on 6th isn't good even if he plays a loose range with bring-ins, rough 8s, even rough 9s or what-have-you. Sure, there are no dead threes, but we end up putting in 3 big bets behind often with no real need to.

edit: saw electrical's post too.

If we're unimproved on 7th, which will happen ~40% of the time, I'm not sure the bet will accomplish much. Assuming villain autocalls any T or better, we need him to catch one of the three remaining Js or two remaining Qs for the bet to be for value. About 1/7th of the time in that 40% (less than 6% of the time) we get value from better. A bring-in happy villain rarely folds worse given our passive actions early on.

Checking here isn't great either because villain's hand is face-up at this point whereas ours isn't. This is a straight up bet for value if we hit our 8, c/c if we don't.

I would absolutely never check 4th. You're ahead and you've got the best board showing to boot. Bet it. I am one for getting my money in when I have the best of it.

I've seen several arguments for checking 4th but I'm not convinced that this situation is a good time to play passively when only moderately ahead on 4th street. Of course if playing passively now will result in greater profits later, then by all means, do so. But that sounds a lot like "slowplaying" to me and I don't think 4th street in razz will meet that criteria very often...

Of course I could be wrong, so convince me.

I also like the 6th street bet, for these reasons, and others...

Also, if you bet 4th and get raised, you can almost certainly put him on a nine (unless he's the type that would try a bluff raise in that spot ). This puts his hand face up to you, and you know exactly what you need to catch to improve your jack to an eight and stay in on the river: an ace, deuce, trey, or six, all but one of which are live.

Since you would probably bet sixth and either bet or call 7th anyway, the cost should be the same, but the benefits higher by betting 6th.

Comments anyone?

interesting hand and responses.

6th: This is what I realized later when I reviewed the hand. Villain paired his 3 on 6th street and that's why he didn't raise when I bet 6th in what at the time I thought was a mistake.

4th I thought maybe a rough Jack wouldn't be ahead of a smooth King, especially on 4th street with 3 cards left to come.
I did some Sims.
Villains Hand
23KA I have 55-45 edge here. Weird because I gave Villain the (i thought) best possible hand.
25KA 50-50
26KA I get the tiny edge again but it's a virtual tie.
47KA 51-49 2% edge
78KA 53-46 my favor

Villain still has position in the betting though.

Wow. You totally whiffed this one. Put the 5 and 7 as dead cards into your sims!

4Card

I still think its a huge whiff to not bet 4th.

If villain has 21, 31, 41, 51 down, some of the most common down cards for him to defend with, our missing the bet here is a monstrous error. Now that he caught a 1, its less likely that those are indeed his down cards, but its still somewhat likely.

http://propokertools.com/simulator/s...ka&h3=&h4=&h5=

This is the sim that matters. Dead cards included, opponent on a range of 6- 6- for down cards, and we are a 65/35 favorite, and I would LOVE for him to either fold his 35% equity, or just call a bet with a pair and a king. I will maybe cough up a tiny fraction of equity for those times when he has two non ace bikes that dont match and then catches good again when i catch mediocre.

4Card

no, i think your sim includes pair in the hole, and

http://propokertools.com/simulator/s...9A&h3=&h4=&h5=

this one would be correct

Yep, whoops. Although in my defense, not only could he have a pair down, he could have rolled up kings and think hes playing stud.

The edited no pair down sim shows a near 62% favorite for our hand, assuming opponent plays quite well. Even the most optimistic of scenarios for our opponent leaves us ahead. We should bet.

4Card

lol...well, that happens a lot in HORSE or 8game...

This...

and, this.

Hmm, that result is quite a bit different than plugging in any one specific hand in the same range. I wonder why that would be? I tried a lot of different specific hands and the biggest equity imbalance I could find was about 53-47 my favor.

Because of the primary point you are missing. He can have an ace down. When he pulls an Ace it becomes a little less likely but when he defended with an Ace down we are destorying him.

4Card