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Razz: Multi-street bluff Razz: Multi-street bluff

01-31-2009 , 08:45 AM
Razz ($0.50/$1.00), Ante $0.05, Bring-In $0.25 (converter)

Seat 2: $11.45
Seat 3: $11.95
Seat 4: $22.20
Seat 5: $33.20
Hero: $50.80
Seat 7: $17.95

3rd Street - (0.60 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 7___calls
Seat 3: xx xx K___brings-in___calls
Seat 4: xx xx Q___folds
Seat 5: xx xx A___folds
Hero: 2 5 6___raises
Seat 7: xx xx 8___folds

4th Street - (3.60 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 7 6___folds
Seat 3: xx xx K 5___calls
Hero: 2 5 6 5___bets

5th Street - (2.80 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx K 5 7___checks___calls
Hero: 2 5 6 5 6___bets

6th Street - (4.80 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx K 5 7 K___calls
Hero: 2 5 6 5 6 T___bets

River - (6.80 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx K 5 7 K xx
Hero: 2 5 6 5 6 T 8___bets

Total pot: (6.80 BB)

Is this line really spewy?
I have a note on the player saying "capable of bluffing rivers
Razz: Multi-street bluff Quote
01-31-2009 , 09:00 AM
7th is spew, hes drawing to a nice 7, you have enough showdown value there to c/c since hes capable of bluffing 7th. The rest is fine, although I'm not opposed to taking a free one on 5th
Razz: Multi-street bluff Quote
01-31-2009 , 10:01 AM
I think 7th is definitely a check. Your hand looks like a T and he will bet everything between an 8 and a T for value, and bluff some of his misses. He can fold a K low, and raise a 7

I like to think of dividing an opponent's hand on the river into slices

1. hand's he'll fold to a bet - we make 0
2. hands he'll call with, that we beat - we make 1
3. hands he'll raise, that beat us - we lose 2

This is an oversimplification because there are hands that beat us that he might not raise, or hands that we beat that he might raise with, but it's a start to the analysis. Because we lose 2 when he raises and wins, we need him to call with worse twice as often as he'll raise with better.

So we need him to have hit a T, 9, or sometimes an 8 (some 8s beat us) and not to have caught one of his outs to a 7 - he has about as many outs to a 7 as he does to a 8-T

It's tempting to think, he only has a 30% chance to outdraw us, so I'm a 2:1 favorite! But you're not a 2:1 favorite when called because he'll fold the worst 1/3 of his range and raise the best 1/3.
Razz: Multi-street bluff Quote

      
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