was reading the "funky 5th razz math" post and sgspecial points to this month's 2p2 article, which i think is very well written.

i'm still learning the minutia of razz and trying to dissect the math from that article. go to the top left corner for 2p2 magazine and read the "critical pot size" article for an in-depth analysis.

in the article board is:

(xx)KK95
(AT)QJQJ

"hero'll improve 70% of the time on seventh"
"villain will also improve 52% of the time on seventh"

Hero's outs: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 = 30 minus 2 outs in villain's holdings = 28 / 40 = 70%
something seems wrong here but my equation ties out to the article. . . this ok?

Villain's outs: A, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, T, J, Q
but for the life of me, i can't back into 52%. how goes that?

TY for reading. The answer is that villain has to have hole cards too, and if he pairs one on the river he wont improve. Also, there's a chance he paired the 5 on 6th st and therefore cannot improve to beat a Q low.

link me

razzpro,

i'm a computer ******. . .hence my DIRECTIONS TO HOW TO GET THERE!

upper left corner, 2p2 magazine, scroll down to "razz critical pot size"

sgspecial,

regarding villain, it makes sense to account for paired 5 on sixth and all river pairs. but i didn't include the river pairs as part of villain's outs.

at first i had these cards: A, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, T, J, Q then took out two of those outs since it would pair. that left me w/a theortical out cards of 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, T, J, Q = 28 cards. . . .and that is nowhere near the 52% improvement number you are using.

round of beer on me if you could show the math on just the villain's improvement probability.

also, my hero's probability math correct?

If you give villain credit for hole cards that don't include an A, hero steals 2.5 more outs on average from villain than you account for since he holds an A, T, and whatever he caught on the river to make his Q low (unless it pairs the villain). Plus villain will sometimes not be able to beat a Q low since he paired the 5, and then he has 0 outs. But for the round of beer, I simply divided hero's overall pot equity (34%) by the probability that hero improves (70%) to get the result that villain doesn't make a better hand 48% of the time. i.e. he makes a better one = 52%. Btw, I like Sam Adams

sorry didn't like that part but ur right i suppose anyway nice read sg

razzpro, hug it out?

Link to the thread the article refers to?

DIRECTIONS TO IT ARE POSTED ITT FFS

back to topic, pls. btw this is another example for why i never liked any razz book and never advice them before linking to listening/2p2articles or 2p2forum.

Fail.

Here's the thread. I didn't link to it in the article since it calls out the screen name of villain in the hand (which I didn't want to publicize).

sheesha... camz... hug it out??