Yeah, 3rd seemed standard.
I'm ahead of a random hand on
4th and
5th. But I guess I'm not far enough ahead to compensate me for the times I'm behind?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbrennen
On 6th street, is this an "I'm smarter than you" raise? The guy just led out into a probable made 9-7. If he's halfway decent, he knows you're never folding 6th street. Even if the 4 paired you, you're going to draw to your 9 and call the river if you make it.
If he has a made 8, he's making a value bet.
If he has a made 9-8 or T-8, then he's never folding 6th street (he's drawing to an 8), and he can expect to get a free river card at least some of the time if he checks (because he's actually in an awesome spot to check/raise with a made 8 and you should know that). And he doesn't need to rep a hand to have any fold equity on the river, because you'd only fold a T-9 or worse on the river, and he doesn't want you to fold those. So a made 9-8 or T-8 should be a check/call for Villain here. Anything else is just spewy.
Villain is LAG and sometimes spewy.
And if he was making a desperate bluff without even having a T-8, you probably cost yourself by raising. At least some of the time (the times that he doesn't improve to a Ten low), he'll bluff the river as well, hoping that you end up with a J-9 and that you fold it against a 4-T-A-8 board, and you don't want to chase him out of the hand before giving him that chance.
This, I didn't think of.
So, basically, your raise on 6th is saying, "I think you have a 9-8 or a T-8, and furthermore, I think that you spewed by leading out with it." If the guy really is a total spew-meister, maybe it's okay, but I usually hate making bets which are only profitable against Villains who are spewing. The problem is, even if the guy is totally capable of spewing, he's also capable of having a made 8 here, and will certainly know well enough to punish you hard for your raise.
Same goes for
6th, except this time I'm a more dominant 3:1 favorite against a random hand and I think this player is LAG/spewy enough to be betting out 100% of the time here. If he has a better hand, this is an exercise in money burning, but isn't being a 75% favorite against most of his range enough to compensate for that?