fold AA on 3rd steet? - Stud Poker - Stud Poker Strategy Forum

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fold AA on 3rd steet?

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04-18-2016 , 07:04 PM

Jon_locke

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,180

40-80 super stud8 and this hand is a kill, the kill acts as a bring in.

kill has 7 up and posts $60 bring in, 5 up calls 60, solid tight player raises with A up, A up calls next in and 7 up calls as well. I'm next with A (A-7) no suits and really have no idea but want to fold.

Is this crazy or standard, have played lots of super stud8 and have yet to have this specific spot come up

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04-18-2016 , 07:47 PM

Howard Beale

Formerly red

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 22,190

Having never played a single hand of super stud8 I'm going to say folding is insanity and that I'd raise. Now I will wait and see what the ppl that HAVE played that variant have to say.

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04-18-2016 , 07:57 PM

NedSchneebly

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 310

I've been in this same spot before. I think even 4 way with both aces dead it's a fold

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04-18-2016 , 08:32 PM

Jon_locke

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,180

I was leaning that way as well, since AA with a brick is an easy fold the 7 can't be worth much given that both Ax hands have to have wheel dress so making 7 lemon unlikely to be worth much. Although if they catch poorly on 4th 5th it can be worth a lot

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04-18-2016 , 09:08 PM

electrical

Loaded for bear

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,280

I call because you can easily make a dominating board (and/or hand) on the next street and easily get away if not.

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04-18-2016 , 10:29 PM

Howard Beale

Formerly red

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 22,190

Ok, I've got a question:

If Jon knows he's up against (4-2)A, (5-3)A and (6-5)7 should he be considering folding (A-7)A?

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04-18-2016 , 10:53 PM

electrical

Loaded for bear

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,280

With so many low cards out it's likely he can K/O one or more players who catch bad on Four whether he catches good or not, and being HU vs an un-paired dead low draw with Aces and a backdoor low is a pretty good spot.

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04-18-2016 , 11:03 PM

Howard Beale

Formerly red

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 22,190

Quote:

Originally Posted by electrical

Thanks. I realize that super stud means stronger starting hands so I put up the strongest I could think of. Is raising a bad idea? It would likely fold the bring in in case he's got something iffy he might call the single raise with.

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04-18-2016 , 11:58 PM

electrical

Loaded for bear

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,280

No reason to raise, you just make it more likely people peel Fourth when you'd prefer they didn't.

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04-19-2016 , 12:35 AM

#10

Howard Beale

Formerly red

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 22,190

k, tx again.

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04-19-2016 , 12:48 AM

#11

ChipsAhoya

2011 $10k Stud8 Champion

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 6,890

surprised you have 30% equity pre against those hands. I was inclined to fold but am okay peeling now I guess.

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04-19-2016 , 07:43 PM

#12

MUD

adept

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 817

If in that game I accidentally flipped over my A7, I would rather muck the 7, play the 2nd A face up and raise, than fold

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04-20-2016 , 02:32 AM

#13

CrazyLond

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 3,009

I would call. I feel like everyone else is or at least should be playing a low hand which means we have the best high hand and they have a bunch of each other's outs to improve.

Last edited by CrazyLond; 04-20-2016 at 02:53 AM.

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04-20-2016 , 02:47 AM

#14

CrazyLond

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 3,009

Edited because I misread op and thought we had (AA)7

Last edited by CrazyLond; 04-20-2016 at 02:53 AM.

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04-23-2016 , 04:47 PM

#15

ScotchOnDaRocks

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 7,351

I think it's an easy fold. You are building aces up and in super stud 8 the low hands are stronger which means more straight/flush draws. A call on 3rd is almost a cry peel and hope 4th comes bad to most of your opponents and you get a chance to thin the herd but too early to start doing that

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04-24-2016 , 03:28 PM

#16

ScotchOnDaRocks

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 7,351

Quote:

Originally Posted by pinkpony

stud is lottery bro sorry no need to analize

Pony if you raise this on 3rd you will probably end up analized as everyone will be priced into seeing 5th and you will be backdoored by at least one if not multiple players

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04-24-2016 , 07:33 PM

#17

Phat Mack

Twat-Waffle

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 12,679

Fold. 5 players in. Your hand dead. With a game this good, why push marginal junk?

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04-25-2016 , 12:51 AM

#18

ninefingershuffle

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 3,816

I love to analize, but I'm not good enough to figure out what to do on later streets with this dead hand, despite its equity on third.

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04-26-2016 , 12:26 PM

#19

electrical

Loaded for bear

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,280

IMO not marginal. AAL even quite dead is very strong, unlike any other pair, and easy to play. Brick 4th vs multiple low hands likely to jam and you have an early out option. Catch good and you are in a fantastic spot almost regardless what the other hands catch. Only potentially expensive spot is catching (AA)77 or (A7)A7 vs good low boards like (xx)3A and (xx)A5ss when they decide to jam.

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04-26-2016 , 01:46 PM

#20

Phat Mack

Twat-Waffle

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 12,679

Quote:

Originally Posted by electrical

Catch good and you are in a fantastic spot almost regardless what the other hands catch. Only potentially expensive spot is catching (AA)77 or (A7)A7 vs good low boards like (xx)3A and (xx)A5ss when they decide to jam.

This is super stud against 5 players. I don't know what we can catch on 4th street that will put us in a fantastic spot.

There are no aces left and one 7 for 4th street. My 5 opponents all have low cards. If I catch a 2 and my 5 opponents catch a jack, are any of them folding? I can't see the plan here.

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04-26-2016 , 05:52 PM

#21

ScotchOnDaRocks

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 7,351

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phat Mack

Agreed, I don't know what we are hoping to catch and even if our opponents catch high cards they could make four flushes. More suited starts in this game.

Think it's an easy fold

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04-26-2016 , 06:59 PM

#22

electrical

Loaded for bear

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,280

No reason to think the bring-in is playing, he has a weak door and forced action. We have the best hi hand possible and a backdoor low. Much closer from an equity standpoint to a raise than a fold, but pot size considerations make this a perfect flat. If you want to fold and wait for the waiter to bring you money on a tray, go ahead. I'm fine trying to win my share with the best hand going in.

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04-26-2016 , 07:18 PM

#23

ScotchOnDaRocks

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 7,351

Quote:

Originally Posted by electrical

Oh I'll definitely be taking that time to get that waiter (or waitress) to order me a cocktail. No money will be brought to me, but money saved is money earned.

Playing this completely dead hand is a reverse odds nightmare imo

Super stud games are amazing and it's not because experts collect a few dollars from people who make a tight fold on 3rd. It's because there are always people to collect bets from who are involved with hands they shouldn't be

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04-26-2016 , 07:36 PM

#24

electrical

Loaded for bear

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,280

A key attribute of this hand is that it will either be very valuable or not once we've seen another card in everybody's hand. We can avoid a costly mistake by seeing the next street before we do anything rash.

I'll reiterate that AAL is dramatically better than any other paired hand, even in this spot.

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04-26-2016 , 08:13 PM

#25

OmahaFanatical4

banned

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 5,123

Quote:

With a game this good, why push marginal junk?

That is specious logic; if the spot is +EV there is no reason to pass it up. Pushing or calling with marginal junk has metagame benefits as well, since if you are perceived as an action player people will give you more action.

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