This may be my last post in these forums. It's certainly the end of my following this thread. So... I'll make it a good one with lessons to be learned for all of you that care. There are a few important concepts on this one that I think some are overlooking or unaware of.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheYellow
Why is calling third standard?
We're almost certainly in last place with two cards dead in a pot with only 3 antes and we're facing two bets cold.
Quote:
Originally Posted by finknik
Only standard for aufuuu.
If we evaluate this hand strictly from an all-in decision on 3rd st, we can solve for whether or not calling would be correct. If the betting doesn't get capped by seat 5, then we must risk $60 to win $225. This gives us 3.75 to 1. We would need 21% equity to make this call. If the betting does get capped behind us, we would be risking $90 to win $285, thus getting 3.16 to 1 and would now require 24% equity to show an immediate profit. For the times that seat 5 doesn't cap we can assume he doesn't have 3 cards below a 7. For the times that he does, we will assume he does. Unfortunately, ProPokerTools' simulator is insufficient for calculating such scenarios, however, using a more advanced Razz calculator, we find that we have ~31.8% equity in this scenario (by giving seat 5 one card between 8-T and the other 7-). In the scenario where it DOES get capped on 3rd st, we can safely assume the following ranges for both villains, yielding us ~21.3% equity.
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
963 | 21.27% | 127,260 | 777 |
(7-7-4) | 43.84% | 262,198 | 1,678 |
(8-8-7) | 34.89% | 208,554 | 1,522 |
So... we can see that this is an easy call if betting doesn't get capped and an easy fold if it does. (31.8% is greater than the required 21% for when it doesn't get capped and 21.3% is less than the required 24% for the times it does.) Doing some quick combo counting, I found the ratio of times seat 5 is able to cap vs not cap to be 540:263. Using this approximation, we can find that we have ~31.8% equity ~32.8% of the time and we have ~21.3% equity ~67.2% of the time.
Now, we need 23.016% equity to show a profit (67.2*0.24 + 32.8*0.21). With 31.8% equity distributed 32.8% of the time and 21.3% equity 67.2% of the time, we find that we have 24.74% equity in this hand. This would make our hand a call (albeit a close one). Now, the real question here is can we profitably continue. If we play well on 4th and 5th street and assume our villain's do not, then this is a pretty easy hand to continue in. If either we do not play optimally on 4th and 5th or villains do play optimally on later streets, then we should fold because of reverse implied odds. I know, I know, everyone here plays optimally of course.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheYellow
Also is 5th standard?
I know about putting extra money in from the xx4KQ but we don't even have 33% in the pot.
You're calc is off. You made it so that villain showing **774 never pairs the 4. This is an unfair assumption. Put the 7 inside the brackets and take the 4 back out and give him a more reasonable range of 8- in the hole, watch what happens.
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
9632J | 35.52% | 213,033 | 178 |
(7-7-4)KQ | 14.81% | 88,514 | 710 |
(8-8-7)74 | 49.67% | 297,663 | 692 |
Note that we are now assuming seat 5 has a premium starting hand since he did cap 3rd street..
Quote:
5th Street: (9.25 BB) (3 players)
Hero: 9 6 3 J 2___Hero bets___Hero 3-bets___Hero calls
Seat 5: xx xx 4 K Q____Seat 5 calls____Seat 5 calls____Seat 5 calls
Seat 6: xx xx 7 7 4____Seat 6 raises____Seat 6 caps!
With the understanding that we do in fact have >33% here, we can eliminate c/c and b/c from our toolbox if seat 5 hangs around. In a typical situation, I would agree with jbrennan's assessment that we would do well to c/r in order to drive out seat 5. However, this play doesn't quite work as well in this spot. The reason is that we are way behind seat 6 when he hasn't paired and we will end up getting in 3 bets HU against a villain as a huge dog. This is not a desirable result. Now, if we lead out, we have a better chance of trapping seat 5 into making the mistake of calling a cap (remember that by the fundamental theorem of poker, we gain every time we force our opponents into making a mistake) and we also give seat 6 the option to tell us whether he's paired the 4 or not if he flats behind. I actually like aufuu's line here (though probably for different reasons than he chose it for). It's by far the best option imo. (No offense to your response jb, I think you're one of the most solid players in this thread, I just disagree about this spot).
Quote:
Originally Posted by camz2895
b/f 7th. In this huge pot you will get all sorts of crying calls with worse hands
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbrennen
And if you fold 7th, you may get SIWAS'd to the tune of about $1500.
Quote:
Originally Posted by camz2895
haha meant to say b/c, surely no one b/f's here
Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered. Check it back.