Felt like this was an interesting hand from 5th onwards. Villain is ceegee who has played a big role in helping me learning stud over the last month or so. We talk a lot of strategy and have a solid feel for how the other plays in general although obviously he is better than me. Its a very aggressive dynamic and I have 3bet him a few times over the last 30 minutes or so.

3rd is standard, 4th I don't love because he is raising a lot but I think its a mandatory bet. I am 99% sure he doesnt have a 4flush when he just check calls 4th and he knows I know he doesnt have a 4flush either but then he picks up another club and I take the lead on 5th and I have no idea how to proceed. I feel like my hand definitely has enough equity to continue but he will raise 5th a ton and is capable of doing it with any part of his range and im def behind his range and not excited about putting a ton of money in the pot. Then again I did catch pretty good for my board and check call gives away a lot about my hand. Do I bet/call and donk 6th if it bricks him and try to take him off his hand on 7th? I decided to just check call but didn't really like any option. After he takes the free card on 6th I feel like my bet on 7th is fine/standard since I am pretty sure hes folding unimproved but thoughts on this are also welcome.

Poker Stars $30/$60 Limit Stud $5 Ante - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

3rd Street: (1 SB)
Seat 1: xx xx T____Seat 1 raises____Seat 1 calls
Seat 2: xx xx 3____Seat 2 folds
Hero: Q K J___Hero 3-bets
Seat 6: xx xx 4____Seat 6 folds
Seat 7: xx xx 2____Seat 7 brings in for $10____Seat 7 folds
Seat 8: xx xx A____Seat 8 folds

4th Street: (5.333 SB) (2 players)
Seat 1: xx xx T A____Seat 1 checks____Seat 1 calls
Hero: Q K J 9___Hero bets

5th Street: (3.667 BB) (2 players)
Seat 1: xx xx T A 7____Seat 1 bets
Hero: Q K J 9 A___Hero checks___Hero calls

6th Street: (5.667 BB) (2 players)
Seat 1: xx xx T A 7 8____Seat 1 checks
Hero: Q K J 9 A 4___Hero checks

7th Street: (5.667 BB) (2 players)
Seat 1: xx xx T A 7 8 xx____Seat 1 calls
Hero: Q K J 9 A 4 6___Hero bets

Final Pot: 7.667 BB
Seat 1 shows 8 9 T A 7 8 7 (two pair, Eights and Sevens)
Hero shows Q K J 9 A 4 6 (high card Ace)
Seat 1 wins 7.617 BB
(Rake: $3.00)

It feels to me that you were trying too hard to convince yourself that this was a hand worth playing in spite of all the evidence to the contrary. His hand is developing in a way that beats you multiple ways. By fifth you are very likely down to needing to hit a gut shot with one ten dead to have any hope of winning and even if you do, you have a problem betting the hand for maximum value given his potential flush. If you are going to go deep vs a quality opponent, especially as a relative newbie, you need to avoid putting yourself into situations that are difficult to play. I would fold fifth and I would also consider just checking fourth. Seeing an aggro opponent check in that situation would get my spidey senses tingling that I am getting suckered into a marginal situation. Especially when he catches a suited ace. Did it not seem out of character for Cegee that he didn't bet into you there? If so, all the more reason to check behind and see what happens on fifth.

One more thing - his range definitely needs to include split tens, based upon third street action. Your hand pines for a ten, which is all the more reason to get out.

Hide the results next time also.

lstream posts good.

Wow, I'm going to crush him for not c/r 4th, that donkey.

Ya i already know I made a mistake there.

Something to consider is that I am OOP and he caught perfect for his door too and won't give me credit for an A and take advantage on 5th if I brick a club.

c/r IP next time then

OP: fold 5th, he has a quads draw

.

With a Ten on his porch you should not have continued past Fourth. Since he didn't c/r Fourth (btw don't bet Fourth) we can assume he doesn't have a flush, but a pair and FD is a likely hand for him, and his pair is likely to be Tens, giving you the worst hand, the worst draw and negative implied odds. If you fancy making a pair of Aces, there's only one left in the deck.

Don't bet Four. You're repping a draw so there's nothing he can fold and he should be c/raising you almost all the time with his nutty draws and big pairs. Throw it away on Fifth.

Also, without an Ace or two-flush you can really comfortably pitch airbags like this on the deal to an open from any good player, especially when his likely hand is a couple of your favorite cards.

You guys know I can win the pot without having the best hand and a ten isnt the only card that gives me showdown value right?

Ceegee is really active on 3rd and folds a nonzero % of split tens to my 3bet. Not saying its an autoraise but I cant see it being much of a mistake.

I would play every combination of split jacks the same way so I dont understand how I'm only repping a draw. I think just giving up after I catch so good for my board is too weak and all my Js, Qs and Ks are live and good the majority of the time. Again, I don't love the spot but I think there is something to be said for being tough to play against and not turning my hand face up and getting run over.

As for 5th, even though his board looks really scary I have pretty decent equity vs his likely range and I'm getting 4.5 to 1 to peel. Ceegee fastplays 3rd and 4th almost every single time so I think we can remove aces and made flushes from his range.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: A423

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AsKsQcJh9h	32.11%	192,235	793
98,T*,J9,QJ,22-99|TcAc7c	67.89%	406,972	793

And I really don't think I am going to play especially poorly on later streets. I know a lot more about his hand at this point than he knows about mine and I'll have a decent idea of where I stand on a lot of 6ths.


Meh I thought this was a good hand for discussion but it seems I'm just a spewmonkey and this spot isn't interesting after all.

I think the raise on third is great, given that villian (ceegee) will open with a pretty wide range here.

This is exactly how good opponents want you to behave. Your original post said you were "lost". Lost combined with stubborn combined with quality opponent = losing serious money. They will eat you alive if you insist on tangling with them when their range and experience tops yours. Save being tough for the times when you know where you stand in a hand, not when you are lost. At least until you get your feet under you. This hand is obvious - you are over thinking it, and trying too hard to convince yourself its worth going to war with. it isn't.

Really?

If he only would C/R 4th...arghhhhhh that kid!

The sim would look like this:

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: A423

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AsKsQcJh9h	27.41%	164,139	652
98,T*,J9,QJ,22-TT, *c*c, AB, A8|TcAc7c	72.59%	435,209	652

Most definitely yes. This should be no surprise.

Care to elaborate?

The way you say it makes me think this is some basic thing from 7CSAP or something like that, but to me it looks weird pitching even Td2hTc for one bet getting 4,1 : 1.

Both thinking about it in exploitative terms (ie, history and all that) or thinking about it in terms of keeping our range balanced (ie, having a wide opening range and pitching more than a very small fraction of split tens means hero can 3 bet without hole cards and make money).

I'd get it* if we assumed a tight raising range, but OP describes their history as having been generally frisky and there's nothing behind hero to make Ceegee think he's holding back on getting cute.

* Well no, I wouldn't. I was raised playing hold'em and I'm not going to betray that by ever folding a pair for one bet in any limit game ever, EV be damned.

It is.

I fold weak tens here for sure as the playability of T 2 T is much worse than a hand like TAT
When stevie 3 bets me I know he loves 3 broadway cards, 3 flushes with an ace door, and a few wired pairs in the hole. I called the 3 bet here because it was the 3rd time he had 3 bet me and I folded both times before. If you notice someone starting to exploit your folding on 3rd like you said, then you can start calling wider, but if a TAG player 3 bets you and you always call with a pair you will lose a bunch from reverse implied odds since TAG players generally have the hand they are repping.

I think I can live with that.

Of course I get that split tens with a small dead kicker is a much worse hand than split tens with a big, live kicker and flush possibilities. And of course I get that the implied odds are exceedingly bad.

What I don't get is how you get to the conclusion that it's so bad that it's a fold against what is described as a fairly wide 3-betting range. Given your description of hero's range he'll have something that beats TxT right now around 1/3-1/2.

I also don't get if you're saying that calling a raise with a crappy TxT is a way to exploit too loose raisers or a way to not get exploited by too loose raisers.

He is saying don't decide to go to war blind on third with a crappy hand.

When you decide you are going to play the crap tens versus his repped Js because there is a non-trivial chance he three-bet bluffed on third, in many situations you have committed yourself to a blind showdown (even if you improve to Ts up). This is okay sometimes (like CG said - against someone who is trying to exploit your ability to fold to a three bet on third), but it is bad practice in general.

Also -- FYI

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Ts2cTh	36.71%	220,242	6
Jd5sJc	63.29%	379,752	6

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
TcKsTs	45.14%	270,833	6
Jd5sJc	54.86%	329,161	6

p.s. On 4th take the delicious free card!

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Td 2s Th	52.27%	313,593	27
J A, K Q,A K, *h *h, 22-AA	Jh	47.73%	286,380

This is the typical Tags 3 betting range. You can probably take out the lower pair and sometimes broadway combos which leaves us in bad shape no matter what they have.

This is our equity with a good pair of tens

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Td As Ts	57.49%	344,888	82
J A, K Q,A K, *h *h, 22-AA	Jh	42.51%	255,030

The point of folding bad tens is that we are at best 50/50 so there isn't too much value in playing them unless you like swings.
I think the 5% increase in equity with a good kicker is worth the slight variance, especially if you notice a pattern of 3 betting. If they are a solid TAG and only reraise pairs and hands with overs to your board it will look like this...

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Td 2s Ts	42.50%	255,007	10
J *, QQ-AA, Ah *h, Kh *h, Qh *h, A K, A Q | Jh	57.50%	344,983	10

I was thinking more along the lines of:

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 342A

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Ts2cTh	43.42%	260,520	23
BB, J*,*h*h,55-AA	Jh	56.58%	339,457

Edit: In response to Davdob, not ceegee.

Edit, edit: ceegee, I think you missed putting in a ton of jacks.

The difference in kickers and range changes whether or not we are a favorite on 3rd or not, and with the combined problems of RIO you can fold profitably on 3rd.
Against people who only raise better pairs against your tens would you call?

The problem with playing an airbags hand like this is that you have to play it fast to build fold equity if you develop a strong board, but if you encounter resistance then ceegee's range narrows to strong enough hands that you become showdown bound with no pair, and ceegee's hand range is real bad for your actual hand.

Counter-intuitively, your 3rd street no-pair range needs to be much tighter when your door is apparently good than when it is bad. A bad door gives you much more credible straight/flush bluffing boards than a strong door, which basically lets you rep only a pair or the kind of hand you have. If ceegee doesn't have a pair, many of his draws include a Jack, so he may discount split Jacks even more.

In your situation I want an Ace or a suit to continue against a Ten door, and with an Ace spoiled having an Ace loses some appeal. If you're concerned about losing this small pot being the same as "being run over" then remember that you get hands of this caliber pretty often, and have the luxury of choosing the best possible spots to play them.

When you catch a suited Nine and bet into a suited Ace-Ten in jeopardy of a check-raise, your perceived range is going to be big pairs with Aces kickers, hands like (QT)J9 and s, and there are a lot more draws than big pairs available. If you would also bet concealed underpairs here then life is even worse for you. If ceegee continues against that range you are either dead or a significant dog on Fifth when he catches another .

This isn't a total spew hand, but there's a lot more going on than first appears, and I agree that it's a good hand for discussion.