Razz ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.50 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5___folds
Seat 2: xx xx T___brings-in___calls
Hero: 5 2 4___raises
Seat 5: xx xx 9___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 4___calls

4th Street - (3.50 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx T T___calls
Hero: 5 2 4 Q___bets
Seat 7: xx xx 4 K___calls

5th Street - (3.25 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx T T 8___folds
Hero: 5 2 4 Q 8___bets___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 4 K A___raises

6th Street - (7.25 BB)

Hero: 5 2 4 Q 8 Q___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 4 K A 3___bets

Total pot: (7.25 BB)

pretty ugly on 6th. i'm either drawing dead or about 50-50. but implied odds/RIO aren't too bad since he should bet the river like every time (so ill get paid 1 bet when i end up ahead.) what are the chances that i'm 50-50? is it worth it to call down? after thinking it over i think it probably is and that folding was a mistake.

The way I see it villain has no reason to ever stop betting regardless of whether he paired, especially since if he paired once he probably still knows he's drawing very live. So, seems like there's no particular reason to adjust your read beyond whatever you'd put him on at 3rd st. If that is a 3 card 8, then he's a 68:32 favorite, let's just call it 2:1. You're getting 9:2 to call down which is 4.5:1, which is fine.

You could go into a bit finer grained analysis and figure out what river cards you'd call a bet with. With some knowledge of your opponent's river tendencies (assuming he won't bet the river 100%, which I think many villais would) you might be able to improve that a little bit, but since 4.5:1 is enough I think I close my eyes and click call twice.

oh, if i'm calling, i'm calling twice unimproved. i think he's pretty unlikely to have an 8 considering that he raised 5th. he very likely has 2 cards 7 or lower in the hole - i just don't know which they are.

(note that this guy often "just calls" with great 3 card hands)

I think you're worse off than 68:32. That equity is assuming that his range on 3rd street was any 3 card 8 or better, and I don't see that. In fact, I suspect that he actually shows up an awful lot with exactly a 3 card 8 on 3rd street -- it's the best explanation for his passive play on 3rd and 4th and then him waking up and going to war on 5th.

If he started with exactly a three-card 8, you're a 76:24 dog here. You can still make a profitable two-street calldown though at 76:24, so maybe I'm just splitting hairs, but I think it's clear that a lot of the hands that show up in "3 card 8 or better" just aren't in his range on third and fourth.

Point taken and that's one of my (very minor) complaints about PPT

hmmm. i'm a relative newcomer to razz and i'm probably wrong here assuming that he wouldn't raise a 4card 8 on 5th. obviously that is a good play.

but keep in mind that everyone's value in this game comes from the bring in who is absolutely horrible. so on 3rd, i know if i were him, i would consider just calling to invite the bring-in to come along. 4th though is questionable for a great hand, yes. so i guess i'd say a 4-card 7 or 8 sounds about right on 5th

and of course inclusion of the 8s makes my fold less-bad since he is less likely to have paired on 6th

The whole issue is very read dependent. Some villains could even show up with a 9 in the hole here which gives hero a live draw for sure. Anyway you should check your sims again to see if you're giving hero the correct equity. (I hope no one is assuming that a reasonable villain could have paired on 5th and taken this line).

what's ppt? is there a stud odds program i should know about besides twodimes?

propokertools.com

Are you really saying that wouldn't happen? OK, I play cheeseburger stakes but I see it constantly. Heck, I saw it yesterday, I got pushed out of a hand with what turned out to be a pretty live draw. I might still have folded if I knew but there was an original better betting with a hidden brick and then someone raised with a hidden brick and a pair.

Don't worry, this happens at filet stakes (steaks?), too. I had a Q9 vs. T8 and T9 on 5th st. at 30/60 last night and both of them had a hidden pair and one bet and the other called and then 6th and 7th were checked around.

-ChipsAhoya

yeah, but that isn't a reasonable opponent, its a bat**** insane one.

I think it's possible for an average, even a reasonable opponent, to raise 5th with a single pair.

With a single pair and a K? Maybe if the pot were huge or hero folded too easily on later streets you could consider this "reasonable", but that's really semantics. In this hand, if villain is raising 5th with his entire starting range then hero should be calling down on 6th as played, but most likely should be 3-betting 5th.