Table and Position Review
Game #80263279-65: Guatemala II - Limit $0.25/$0.50 7-Stud H/L8

Seat #1: Hero, 13.91
Seat #5: Villain, 17.12

Villain Paid Ante $0.02
Hero Paid Ante $0.02

*** BRING IN ***
*** Blinds ***
Villain got hole cards [ null null 5 ]
Hero got hole cards [ A 6 Q ]

Villain Posts Bring In $0.05

*** Third Street *** Pot: 0
Hero Completes 0.25
Villain raises with 0.50
Hero calls 0.25

*** Fourth Street *** Pot: 0
Villain got hole cards [ null null 5 7 ]
Hero got hole cards [ A 6 Q J ]
Hero checks
Villain bets 0.25
Hero ???

fold

ARRRRRRRRRRRR IN.

Easy fold Fourth. Third is fine.

I really don't like that you guys are saying this is an easy fold when it's a clear call.

3rd street is possibily super marginal, maybe a fold given this joke of a structure. risking .25 to win .09??

We have enough equity, and we have plenty of playability given our 3 diamonds.

Making the assumption players at .25/.50 aren't going to construct near perfect ranges theory wise, and that they will be a little too loose in their 2-betting standards.

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.26 Professional)
Stud Hi/Lo, Generic syntax
PLAYER_1 Ad 6d / Qs Jd
PLAYER_2 5 L, 44-AA, *h Lh, ww / 5h 7h
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Lo %	Ties Lo %	Scoops %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count	Wins Lo Count	Ties Lo Count	Scoops Count
Ad 6d / Qs Jd	40.7873%	46.1953%	0.0048%	5.5190%	0.0112%	31.0810%	277172	29	33114	67	186486
5 L, 44-AA, *h Lh, w...	59.2127%	53.7998%	0.0048%	27.5755%	0.0112%	49.5050%	322799	29	165453	67	297030

.

Having 40% equity is nice, but that's a volatile 40% and our scoop potential is extremely low, so you're radically increasing your variance by continuing in these spots where the downside is way worse than the upside is good. Lots of 5th street scenarios we have to fold, despite probably having the best hand for half at the moment, lots of times we think we've improved our equity position but haven't etc.

In a genius vs genius battle you have to play in these spots because villains will pick up on what you're doing and rep/float/steal but vs typical small stakes villains I still fold here.

I actually think this is a really good example of what I'm having troubles with.

on 3rd street:

if villain folds 60% and raises 40%,

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ad6d	Qs	43.76%	173,529	287,607	99	87,038
$L$L!22-44, qq+, hh	5h	56.24%	248,370	312,294	99	201,317

we either make 9 cents uncontested 60% of the time, or
go onto 4th street with 44% equity where the pot size is $1.04.

The question I'm trying to figure out is what our actual equity is given our h/c equity.

if the game were to end on 4th street then we'd only lose 4 cents (0.44*1.04-0.5) 40% of the time. Weigh that in with making 9 cents 60% of the time for a total profit of 4 cents per hand (0.6*0.09-0.4*+0.04). of course that's unrealistic since more money will be going in and the final pot size will be bigger.

if we go to the extreme and assume 1 bet goes in every street then we'd have to invest an extra $1.75 for a final pot size of $4.54. We'd still make 9 cents 60% of the time, but we'd lose 25 cents (0.44*4.54-(1.75+0.5) 40% of the time. Now if we weigh everything, our total loss is 5 cents per hand (0.6*0.09-0.4*+0.25). this of course is also unrealistic since the pot size will vary.

the answer probably is 40% of the time, our equity varies between -$0.25 to +$0.04. I guess the range can be wider if villain plays post really really bad or if we play post really really bad. we can lose upto 13 cents to at least break even (0.6*0.09/0.4).

we can also minimize the loss by folding when our equity really sucks on the later streets and that brings us to 4th street:

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ad6dqsjd	34.84%	121,683	274,679	29	27,789	125
$L$L!22-44, qq+, hh	5h 7h	65.16%	303,592	325,292	29	287,017

I think 35% equity is more realistic. we're getting 5.16:1 to call on 4th. if we strictly go by pot odds, we'd only need 16% to continue. That of course is unrealistic since we'll most likely still suffer in equity on 5th street and villain will thus bet again. we can't just say "oh we have pot odds" to every street.

I actually don't know whether or not this is a call or a fold on 4th. assuming villain only checks on an unsuited paint (15/46), we'll be able to see 6th for at least free 33% of the time or get 4.08:1 67% of the time.

I think both streets are extremely unclear. I also know rake is extremely high on carbon, so I'd lean more towards the fold.

highly disagree. if it's +ev, i dont care how big the volatility is or how small our scoop potential is.

perhaps you mean we win smaller pots when we win and lose bigger pots when we lose. I'd also be more inclined to fold in a genius vs. genius battle since a genius plays post well.

so if I play someone who plays 5th passively or someone who blindly triple barrels on multiple bricks, I'd be more inclined to float with poor equity. If I play someone who has controlled aggression, i'd be more inclined to give up.

also i don't agree with the range ceegee assigned villain (i agree with his logic), so i think 40% is higher than it actually is. if the read on the range is as ceegee stated then intuitively it feels like all hands with 40% equity (no matter how volatile or how little scoop potential) should continue at 5:1 odds.

actually I agree with the range assigned. it's actually tighter than mine. I don't agree with the syntax (maybe it's been a while or even a level?). Maybe it's different on PPT oracle, but the equities seems very different.

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
Ad6d	Qs Jd	34.86%	132,385	263,637	15	27,768
5$L, 44-aa, $L*:hh, $W$W	5h 7h	65.14%	314,074	336,348	15	247,925

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
Ad6d	Qs Jd	40.75%	185,985	277,009	37	33,382
5 L, 44-AA, *h Lh, ww	5h 7h	59.25%	296,963	322,954	37	165,624

if you count the combos of LL, ll, GG, gg, PP, pp, or any untaken variable then it'll just come back with the same number. If you do ww, WW, xx, XX, yy, YY, zz, or ZZ then it'll also come back with the same number. I don't think LL means two low cards or ww means two wheel cards. i think LL represents two suited cards and ww represents 2 unpaired cards divided by 4 (whatever that's suppose to mean).

upon further inspection, i can see the reason why ppt oracle uses "/" instead of "|". The whole table gets shifted.

What does variance matter if it's +EV?

I can't think of many 5th street scenarios where we fold the best hand.

The genius argument is ridiculous. Yes I believe you should change your play based on range differences, but I gave villain a typical range here, which is actually not even good.

If you have AQ-high without a low draw and villain catches a good card, say any , Ace or small card are you calling down?

Having equity on a street is nice, but there are more streets to play and this game caps your equity at 50% or less in situations like this, so you have to pay many bets to get less than your money back.

If a significant part of your strategy in stud8 is to make pots big enough on 3rd that you are marginally priced-in to draw to half of them on 4th then you're going broke.

Tiger says the same thing with actual numbers.
The genius argument is more of a familiarity argument. If I know my opponent will rep every board and try to make me fold equity then I will have to defend and continue lighter because his hole cards converge to 100% range and it's hard not to get the price to play anything like a hand in that situation.

I'm not sure that's mathematically possible. If our 40% equity is volatile then it should often change dramatically on 5th st, but it can't get much above 50% without either having a lock high (impossible on 5th) or a decent chance to scoop. Also you say "volatile" like you would say "danceable" in regard to music. Are you sure you'd rather have a 40% hand that has somewhere between 30%-50% on the next street than one that tends to swing either to 65% or 15%?

If somebody says "you get exactly 40% of the pot now, plus your money back no questions asked, just click call four more times," then of course you'd take it.

In stud8 on the next card we can be dead for half (or all of) the pot and not know it, or be comfortably ahead for half and not know it. If you could tell which then a more volatile position could help you but with so little information we're likely to make two expensive mistakes: In the first case we call down incorrectly because the range includes hands we beat for half, in the second case we fold incorrectly because the range has us in poor overall shape but we'd make money vs the precise hand we face.

With more information (dead cards, more hands in the pot to refine a read) or a stronger actual hand (one that won't be so worthless so often) or a metagame reason to continue (genius vs genius thing) then playing on can be more valuable.

tl/dr: Villain hit perfect card, our hand is weak, next street will suck even worse, just bail.

i think it's a great shortcut to just assume 3.5 more bets goes in as a base of deciding what to do. i like using this when i think villain plays post decent or im in a tough spot...

with that in mind...

40% is a hellavulot different than 35%. A6JQ high with a backdoor flush/low draw has no where close to 40% in a raised pot vs. xx57ss. im sure most of you guys can sense/intuit/whatever what 35% equity, 40% equity, 45% equity, etc is after playing this game for so long. 40% would be changing our hand from A6QJ:ddd to a6Q5:ddd in which case all of you will say call 4th.

it's ridiculous to fold on 4th with 40% equity in a lot of situations. we have to play really bad to mess this up by checking when we're ahead, raising with nothing, or folding a hand with plenty of showdown. i guess an argument to be made is the times we goto the river with AQ high and not know whether or not to fold or call. often times with 40% equity, those decisions should naturally just rarely come up.

assuming some guy says we get the hotcold equity value of the pot for an investment of calling 4 more times (3.5 BB)... algebra says

investment/(both investments + breakeven point) = hc equity
breakeven point = investment / hc equity - both investments

the breakeven point on 4th with
30% equity is 4.67 BB
35% equity is 3.00 BB
40% equity is 1.75 BB
45% equity is 0.78 BB

when villain bets on 4th we need
10.33:1 with 30% equity
7:10:1 with 35% equity
4.50:1 with 40% equity
2.56:1 with 45% equity

there's a huge difference between 35% and 40%. this specific hand is just a toss based on this shortcut. villain has to play really bad for me to overcome this deficit. of course there are other variables involved and that's what makes me so unsure on the earlier streets. maybe someone can provide a better method.

Yeah, I don't think we have 40% equity either I just let that slide.
Agree with gorilla math.

My basic guess was the decision is a toss up, and excellent post by tiger there. One issue is knowing yourself as a player. A common leak in stud games is people just talk themselves into making semi-loose call after semi-loose call on every street. Not TERRIBLE calls but just erring on the loose side always.

Early street discipline (particularly on 4th and 5th) can close that leak some if you think you have it. That is why I would normally just advise someone to toss it here.

I agree with you that in hands where it's hard to construct an accurate range for Villain, calling on early streets in marginal spots often leads to compound mistakes where you get hurt worse on later streets (like davdob is talking about). And in this particular hand, it may be hard to put villain on a reasonably accurate range and even if we can Hero probably has a lot less than 40% equity.

But I stick by my general point that when you're behind, having a "volatile" equity (which by definition will often leave you with a worthless hand on future streets) is FAR better than having a hand with durable equity.

Yes, because you will know pretty quickly if you are going to "catch up" or if you can fold. The alternative is what I set out above.

In a one-winner game, sure. You have fewer obtuse scenarios and hand reading is both easier and more valuable. In a split-pot game where you often have no shot at half the pot, durable equity for one player or another can be the whole show. When you appear to have half locked up you often win the other half by surrender, and having durable equity with the only live low draw (for example) gives you cover and impunity for your shenanigans.

wtf is this terrible structure. I'd leave this game immediately.

I guess I still open 3rd and peel 4th but ****, put some money in the pot.

^^

HE'S IN THE BAG

I forgot the $ in L, so I got 37% after re-doing it.

we're talking about different cases imo. I'm talking specifically about Hero being behind in equity, and it really doesn't matter much how that's split between high half, low half, or scoop as long as it's a HU pot. It seems you're talking about being ahead (e.g. 55% equity with lock for half and 10% chance for a scoop). In that case, by definition, the tables are turned since Villain will be behind with durable equity.