Not sure how you're calculating variance, but I think both games swing much more than just about any 2/5 or 3/5 game.

Beatable is a relative term, and I think you're misunderstanding it as simply net positive. If it's net positive that we're discussing here, then using Shoreline games as argument for alternative would make sense, but personally Shoreline games just aren't worth the trouble.

4-5 years ago with decent game selection in the 2-40 I think 20/hr was a realistic win rate, maybe a little more for top players. I built part of my roll in that game. It very well may have changed since then though.

THIS!!!!!!!!!!!

Variance and swing are two very different things. Limit games (especially split pot games) are lower variance, but against bad players your edge is smaller. Therefore you'll have more negative sessions.

My discussion above is premised on everyone complaining about the state of NL. If NL games are beatable for $20+/hr then there's probably nothing else worth the effort to learn. (You could probably do better in 20/40 with expert play, and a little better at lower variance with decent play in 15/30 O8.)

I haven't played in $2-$40 SL but that jumped to mind as the biggest of the North End games. I'd imagine $20/hr is doable if the games are at all good.

When I was last in WA there were two nights of O8 at Muck and I think one night at Tulalip. You're saying this game runs around the clock?

I don't know what you're talking about with the sneering, but those Shoreline games are not worth discussing if were talking about winrates and beatable games. The only 2/5 is at Sno and 3/5 is a much better game. The 15/30 O8 w/ kill has a ton of variance and a lot less than the NL spread.

Swings mean more variance. The full ring O8 has much more than 3/5 spread definitely and maybe more than 5/10 depending on how deep and who's in the game. Not sure about the latter but if would be interesting to discuss, though there's probably just 2 or 3 who could comment on that.

3/5 is beatable for roughly double that for the handful of the best (competent) players. 5/10 is great but runs less often and the lineup depends more.

I haven't been to those Shoreline rooms but that sounds like 1/2 with a $40 max bet. I doubt anyone could expect to make more than gas money long term.

false: variance in lhe > variance in nlhe

it is true that split pot games lower variance.

Nope. It's been discussed ad infinitum and for one thing it depends on what you consider to be equivalent stakes. But generally when people say NLHE is lower variance, it indicates a confusion between variance and "swinginess" (probability of a downswing of a certain magnitude). As long as your edge in NL is substantial, I agree that it's less swingy, but it's also higher variance (making reasonable assumptions about comparable stakes).

Long discussion summarized here.

i stand outnitted. o7

I don't know how variance could not manifest itself in greater up and down swings. I'd say a decent player's winrate at 3/5 NL to be around $40-50. A long session at the Muck is like visiting the ATM to withdraw $500. Occasional +/- sessions for over $2k. Not sure what an accurate winrate is for the 15/30 w/ kill O8 game, but I'd guess it's in the same area. However +/- sessions of $2k+ are far more frequent and been pretty much the standard for me

Shorthanded for sure and maybe stud8, I don't know. For the PLO/PLO8 game I don't think so and possibly the opposite. Live 9 handed LO8 everyone is playing a ton of hands chasing every garbage low and high draw out there. Really doubt it.

That seems very high, especially with a 100bb buyin cap.

Of course it does. No one's arguing it doesn't.

They're two different, but related concepts. Do you understand the difference between mean and variance (or standard deviation)? Something can have a very high SD but an even higher mean. If my winrate is $1M / hour and my SD is $100k/hr, I'm rarely going to have a losing session. But I'm also in a much much much higher variance game than one with mean $10 / hr and SD of $50 / hr.

Honestly, when you describe any poker game like that, I think you're either not keeping good records or running good and convincing yourself it's going to last forever. If you're not seeing occasional 8 or 10 BI downswings, not ever, then I suspect you're just misinterpreting small samples.

16 hours a week = about 28k hands per year. Online players would laugh at trying to get a very good winrate from that sample. Maybe you're a pro and playing 70k hands per year, but it's still just barely enough to tell you're a winner, much less calculate a winrate with accuracy.

No, this is exactly backwards. Shorthanded is much higher variance. You have to play many more hands, and those non-nut draws get coolered more often.

That's exactly why it's profitable and low-variance. Which wins low more often, A2 or 63? You're trying to scoop, but you'll often get outdrawn and still take half the pot as a consolation prize, because almost all of the good O8 hands have A2 or A3.

Yeah.... to me too, but hey, these are the pros. It's only variance when you're losing.

ANYWAY, I DON'T CARE. I'M GLAD PEOPLE ARE HAPPY PLAYING NLHE. I'M ALSO (SELFISHLY) GLAD FOR THE PEOPLE WHO COMPLAIN ABOUT THE NL GAMES BUT ARE TOO INFLEXIBLE TO TRY SOMETHING ELSE. If you're that great at NL, you're probably glad for them too.

What's your motivation behind these arguments anyway?

I don't see the benefit of you wanting more thinking players in your game, so why are you doing this?

Agreed that there's no benefit even if I convince someone. I just enjoy the discussion because it helps me rethink my assumptions (such as taking at face value those who say the NL games are now too tough). The debate's not worth the effort I spend on it.

Decent is probably the wrong word to use, but it's supposed to be high. It's near the top of what you can expect playing live 3/5 NL (usually 2/5 other states). You can search a bit and find people saying the same. Yeah some people say they do $20/hr or something, but that is them personally.

Now for something totally different....

Apparently a couple of people in the Omaha game tonight had made a bet on the over/under of the Mariners' game. The O/U was 7 runs, and after 14 innings, the game was still scoreless.

Well, the M's ended up losing 7-5 in 16 innings. Ouch.

AKQJ10 what games are you playing if you only take shots at the Dimond lil's game. I also would prefer to play a split pot game sometimes over going to grind NLHE but there isn't many great games. When you say split pot there is no ****ing mix games or stud8 anywhere so why don't you just say O8. That game has been and always will be a way to grind out $10-20 an hour. And as many people have pointed out in o8 and especially limit holdem you can easily have 1-$2k swings at the stakes you are talking about. I have never lost over $2k in a single day of NLHE expect for 2 times playing $5/10.

These games do not run around the clock and have, just like the NLHE games, a chance to be really ****ty with nits and regs. Yes lots of the regs can be pretty bad and you can sit there and grind you $10 an hour you are correct.

I am heading down to vegas this year again for the series to play the stud8 tournies and the 50/100 game. If anything like that ran in Seattle I would love it.

This was too aggravating to not comment.

I know damn well what variance is. I think you are associating the phrase "swingy" strictly with more losing sessions. Ironically the times I usually call a session swingy, I end up at or near $0 after a rollercoaster ride. In your hypothetical example, it's probably more appropriate to compare wildly different games and stakes in terms of BBs. Still, the billionaire is going to have a much higher coefficient of variation and probably be falling asleep at the table, while the Shoreline grinder feels all the highs and lows...

At 3/5 can't remember getting close to 8 BIs. PLO I've probably done it a few times in single sessions (esp. if you consider going +4 to -4). That's buying in 100bb though.

I've put in an embarrassing number of hours at the tribals the past 3 or so years and have a pretty good idea of what's going on at 3/5. O8 not so much, but I'm assuming it's capped at 2 big bets or even less. Fairly sure winrates I've mentioned for NL are inline with others elsewhere. Also you don't need as large a sample live vs online. Besides there being less variance, winrates being what they are online, 1 bb/100 makes a big difference.

You completely misquoted me. We were talking about high vs split pot games; I'm saying when playing shorthanded, the split pots reduce variance. And no, shorthanded your non nut hands are less often coolered.

Really hope you start playing that game and report on the variance, even if I'm not there.

this conversation is making me feel like im back at the Caribbean listening to the crusty old regs bitch about strat.

Yeah, I don't think this conversation is really productive enough to keep moving forward. If you believe you're making a sustainable $40/hour at 3-5, good for you.

I don't understand the reasoning here. And that makes me think we're on totally different wavelengths, which is fine.



Not in that particular game, but I've measured O8 SD as somewhere between 10 and 12 BB/hour. You can still go through incredible downswings to make you question if you're even a winning player, and conversely you can have months where every session is a 50 big bet win.

Curious how you are measuring the std of O8, and what do you think is std for 3/5 200-500?

For several sessions I literally wrote down my stack size each hour. This was back when I was playing a more passive $5/10 FK LO8 game with a really high kill threshold, and the observed SD for something > 100 observations was $108 I think. It's still a small sample but SD converges much quicker than winrate so at least it's a start.

I should have been clearer, the 10 to 12 is an estimate factoring in:

- I was running good so SD is probably more than I observed
- I used an effective "big bet" of $13 figuring 30% of pots were killed; in a more conventional game I'd estimate 50%.
- Seattle games are much more aggressive than that game, but equally loose.

I am easily around 55bb/hr for SD at 3/5, but I am not sure how accurate your calculation is with such small sample.

Ask Teresa at the hideaway if you want to play stud8. She was talking about it last week. There is interest.

really? If you are there run it by her that I will play any stakes 5/10 or above.

But just remember, that means you'd have to go to the Hideaway.