According to stats the corona virus only has a mortality rate of 2%. The gambler in me likes those odds. Sure you take a bad beat sometime but so is life. Don’t worry about it. Humanity is the real virus if you think about it

Stay safe!

I don't understand the reasoning behind that "mortality rate."

They're doing:
# of deaths / total # of confirmed infections = mortality rate

The actual stats are like this:
# of deaths = 2,708
# of recovered = 27,918
Total # of confirmed cases = 80,421

So the above comes out to 3.37%.

But we actually only know the outcomes of 30,626 of the cases (# deaths + # recovered). Since it's not an illness where one drops dead instantly (if one is going to die), the rest could still result in deaths or could result in recoveries. We don't know yet.

Based on the above, shouldn't it be:
# of deaths / (# of deaths + # of recoveries) = mortality rate?

Which would be 8.84%?

I think a lot of players have gone back to private games or FW for Stud or most likely stopped playing limit games. Like you said it is probably dead. I try to play all the games knowing I can always play NL and tournaments at anytime now that there is enough momentum for those and PLO8 prob won't run anymore. Hopefully the PLO games will grow.

If we wait long enough, mortality rate = 100%.....

I don't wanna go on the cart!

I’m considering playing the 2/2 PLO or the 2/2 PLO8 when I visit next (I only really play 1/3 NL and 4/8 O8 otherwise).

How does the betting structure work here with the bring in? I’ve only played online where everything is exact and automatic. Here are some specific questions:

1. The first person in the pot makes it $5 (the bring in), so a pot sized raise would be $5+$9 or $14, but this gets rounded up to $15 since betting is in $5 increments? Is this correct?
2. Do all raises get rounded *up* to the next $5, or just to the *nearest* $5? ie would $11 get rounded to $10 or $15?
3. Will dealers know/tell you the pot if you don’t have an exact count?

Thanks for the input, looking forward to donating some money to you guys.

1. The $2+2 blinds together are counted as $5 preflop. so first potsized raise is $15. Each previous $5 limp would increase this by $5 (i.e., UTG limps in for $5, potsized raise is now 3x5 + 5 (blinds) = $20.)
2. Pots are rounded up, never down.
3. Yes.
2/2 PLO goes every day, usually starts at 11 am weekdays, generally goes overnight on weekends. 2/2 PLO8 rarely goes during the week now.

What you, and many others, are not taking about is the thousands who had it but were not counted among the official stats. Also, given China's population skewing towards the old more so than the ROW, that's how I think they're getting to the lower mortality percentage. But yeah, it's a higher death rate than the flu for sure, which is about 2 per 1000 cases.

In case anyone only reads poker sites and hasn't heard the latest, the first case of COVID-19 infection that could not be traced to an originating host was announced yesterday in Solano County, Northern California, home to Travis AFB (which is a quarantine designation for COVID-19). The patient had originally been admitted into a hospital in coincidentally(?) nearby Vacaville for a week before they tested her and received the result. She had been moved to UC Davis Medical Center, so the case is being attributed to Sacramento, but patient's original location was actually equidistant to the San Francisco Bay Area. I used to live near Travis for a while and we consulted for the DoD, but I have no additional info (it's been a while). I just hope for everyone's safety.

The implication though is that COVID-19 has been in the general population in NorCal and unknown for weeks. California is now monitoring 8,400 people for infection. (Massachusetts is currently monitoring 231. New York has 83 in self-quarantine.)

Should you continue to play poker (or anything) at the casinos?

I won't answer that because it's a personal judgment with possible personal consequences[1], but, if the situation progresses, it will become less and less safe to do so.

Make good decisions. We are counting on one another to do so - possibly until the weather routinely reaches 85 degrees and humid, according to one study, which conditions, for Massachusetts, are a long way off.


[1] About 18% to 20% of known infections have led to severe or critical patient conditions. The mortality rate, as mentioned before, is debatable.

Being a generally curious person, I actually did a little digging into the mortality rate issue after the post, and this is as good a writeup about it as any:
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-rate/#correct
(The writeup also happens to mention how that 2.2% can be calculated based on Feb. 8th numbers.)

Yes, some believe many cases are not counted, but, at the same time, others believe China, which has changed its criteria twice already, is under-reporting their cases and deaths, including attributing the latter to other causes. Who knows?

https://twitter.com/janetkos/status/...555916802?s=20

Good news about cleaning the chips.

If anyone is here and wants to start a fun mix hmu

Russell Westbrook in the house. Playing 10 10 PLO

All this talk about the virus has me thinking...:why does Foxwoods, and for that matter NH charity rooms, provide ample convenient supplies of hand sanitizer to their poker patrons, whereas this place does not? You have to ask to get it.

Foxwoods has hand sanitizer stations around the poker room. Not to mention, sinks with soap in the bathrooms.

I have been making a habit of having my own sanitizer at the table.

If you’re just getting concerned now for hand sanitizer you haven’t spent much time in a poker room and seen all the potential for germs. Not the cleanest place.

I think you made my point; this is all the more reason for every poker room to take some simple measures to at least try to keep patrons healthy. Especially now. Players who are sick at home don’t pay rake.

I rarely play PLO but I would jump in 10/10 to play with him.

Not quite but with my vague response I can understand your confusion. I agree they should have sanitizer stations around the room. There have been viruses and germs spread throughout a casino, and everywhere you go, for years, not just with the latest coronavirus. Poker players are certainly not the most hygienic people. But if one is thinking about anti-germ protection now they've already encountered a lot of viruses and other crap spread around the room. One has to take responsibility for their own self-health and self-cleanliness. If big brother isn't doing it (Encore), go to CVS.

Question:
1.How are the shuttle buses that Encore runs?

I'm planning a short trip to Boston and won't have a car. Will be staying near the Market Basket stop for the neighborhood shuttle.
Are they a reliable way to get to the casino and do they get busy during the weekends? (Like will I have to wait for another shuttle because the first might be full?)

2. Looking to rent a room short term for a few months. I've only looked through craigslist, airbnb and facebook rentals. Are there any local websites or apps you'd recommend checking out?

This severe status, more than the mortality rate, is the factor that will test the resiliency of our health system. Hospitals will be overwhelmed with patients who require admission. Those who go on to require intensive care will flood already crowded ICUs. Critical care nurses, doctors, beds, vents, and equipment don't magically appear. This in turn could result in a higher CFR.

The United States has 62,000 fully-featured ventilators to support neonatal, pediatric, and adult patients. Many of these are already in use. You can do the math to see that having 'overwhelmed ICUs' isn't too far fetched if COVID-19 does indeed become widespread. There are also an additional 100,000 non fully-feature ventilator units that could be exploited to provide basic support during a crisis.

The Italian outbreak (700ish) is rather new and already the hospitals have reported being overwhelmed by patients.

Time will tell, numbers out of China are not reliable, with some academic epidemiologists noting that the math behind their reports being straight out of a graph in the first chapter of an 'intro to epi' textbook.....too perfect to actually happen in nature.


I recommend Dr. Caitlin Rivers @cmyeaton as someone to follow on Twitter for sophisticated perspectives on COVID-19 from her and her retweets.

Also, can anyone confirm that Chick-fil-A is still available from the poker grill before midnight?

I’ve been bringing my own sanitizer for years...But I also want the room to make it available easily to increase the chances the players I am facing use it too. Something wrong with that?

Is there a dealer shortage today?

Big tournament. 682 entries into flight 1C of the $600 buyin, 500K guaranteed. Currently still 396 left, so about 44 tables for that. As the tournament tables break I imagine they will open more cash tables. I think 1A was 273 and 1B was 378. If my math is right that's 1333 entries and $699,825 in the prize pool.