Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Satellite shove, correct or not? Satellite shove, correct or not?

06-22-2014 , 06:14 AM
Blinds 200/400, 10 players left - Top 2 get tickets.

UTG ( 2243 ) - VPIP: 23, PFR: 15, 3B: 8, AF: 0.0, Hands: 62
MP ( 9740 ) - VPIP: 22, PFR: 12, 3B: 5, AF: 3.0, Hands: 105
Button ( 671 ) - VPIP: 22, PFR: 20, 3B: 12, AF: 0.0, Hands: 55

Hero's M: 15.80

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 9
UTG raises t2,193, MP calls t2,193, Button calls t621, 1 fold, Hero raises t9,031
06-22-2014 , 07:32 AM
I think this is a tough spot... There are a lot of people that will tell you your hand is good here, but I am not so sure.

I think UTG doesn't have that loose of an image and I would want to know if he is a positional player... have you seen him raise more from late or early, etc. Also, is that a typical raise size or him? Mp calls, and button calls... this puts your hand in a far worse position. Now you are up against 3 potential callers to your shove. Your fold equity is basically out the door, so now you have to decide if people are calling/raising with worse.

The biggest threat in my mind is UTG.. however, when/if he/she decides to be all in with you, I think MP might snap call just due to pot odds... and that makes your 99 in big trouble.

Your M is 15.8.. and you don't have to really hit shove mode till about 8M.. you have time to see better, I know this is a great hand if you are first to act for a shove, but interest has been shown in this pot already and I would be tempted to back down and let them fight for it.
06-22-2014 , 12:35 PM
I would sigh then fold. This would be the correct move if you had a big stack (like 16,00+), however far too often the MP villain calls your push with something like AJ or KQs, and you are in a position where you are worse than flipping as well as your tournament life being on the line.
06-22-2014 , 02:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firesphere
The biggest threat in my mind is UTG..
why should a 5bb UTG AI shove on a 5 handed table be a threat against a hand like 99

to make a solid statement we would need to know the chipstacks of the players at the other table.
if they are smallish i would hate my life and fold, if there is still some poker to be played i shove everytime of the week.
we are way ahead of UTGs range and i am not that afraid of MP.
the hands we are dead against (TT-QQ) is he probably clicking or isoshoving.
he is folding a great ton of time and then we have great equity and don't have to invest many chips.
if he is calling it is very likely that UTG and MP block themselves some outs and we are still never crushed against MP.
ofc he is sometime trapping with KK+, but so be it
06-23-2014 , 01:30 AM
I'm less worried about UTG as I figure even if he's dominating us, with the bloated pot we're probably still okay pot odds wise.

Its more the fact that if MP calls, we're up against somebody who has us covered and what is he likely to call with that we beat?
06-27-2014 , 06:54 AM
I assume there was no SB in the hand and this is a 6 max tournie.

I'm not too worried about the utg range as it is less than 6bb with just a few players to get through. At worst I would think (AA-22,AKs-A7s,KQs-KTs,QJs,AKo-ATo,KQo) but probably wider.

The MP player range is much harder to estimate.
I would expect MP to mostly shove so this flat adds some confusion. It's not a bad play imo as you will call a shove with your top hands anyway and it would be better to try to keep some of your extra hands in that MP may dominate.
I doubt if anybody would play small pairs or weak suited this way so I would take out most of these, a few weakish pairs might though so an open call range of (AA-77,AKs-ATs,KQs-KJs,AKo-AJo,KQo) might make sense (?).

You wouldn't get many folds from this MP range (if this MP call-call line was the intention).

In this case with this style of play I think 99 is just ahead and worth perhaps +1bb or so but there is also the possibilty that it is just strange play and in this case you are a lot further ahead, perhaps +2 to 3bb's.
06-27-2014 , 08:02 AM
Actually, re-thinking about it there is a decent chance of it just being a random player nursing a monster and so I think it is more likely a break even prospect without any decent reads.

      
m