Raise-calling AJ all in is ICM suicide here. Really, the range we can raise-call for value is so narrow that we shouldn't have a raise-calling range. If villain has no idea what he is doing both pre-flop and post-flop then an exploitative raise-fold might be ok.
But assuming we would call as everyone else is, when villain:
a) has a hand that would fold to the min bet and fold to the jam.
b) has a hand that he would call an open jam with and would shove with if we min-bet
it makes no difference anyway, the result is the same whether we start by min-raising or jamming.
The only categories that make a difference are
c) he has a hand that would flat both the min-bet and the jam
d) he has a hand that would fold to a jam but call a min-bet
e) he has a hand that would fold to a jam but shove over a min-bet.
As regards c) we don't want to play post-flop OOP with a massive ICM advantage in his favour. If he's competetent at all he can put too much pressure on us. We pretty much have to play fit or fold. If you think he's really good then you can level him by check-raising all-in because he "knows" you must have it, but I don't fancy than much in this game.
As regards d) - same again, we'd rather just pick up the dead money by jamming against those kinds of hands.
As regards e) - due to ICM we don't want to induce and flip. Growing our stack by 10% by him folding is by far the best option against the 98s type of stuff.
So without a min-raising range, Nash Calculator gives an open-shoving range of:
SB jam: 39.4%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K9o+ Q4s+ Q9o+ J7s+ J9o+ T6s+ T9o 96s+ 86s+ 76s
called by BB: 12.7%, 55+ A7s+ A9o+ KJs+ KQo
IMHO pretty much all of this is in category b), so there is no category c)
To give you a taste of how much ICM pressure we are under , here's our calling range to the wide range of the CO, who doesn't even cover us:
CO jam: 18.9%, 22+ A2s+ ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s
called by SB: 5.9%, 88+ AJs+ AQo+
http://www.holdemresources.net/h/web...=&s8=&s9=&s10=
Here are the EV values of various outcomes (in cents but the payouts are based on the $1 45s, however they scale the same to the $3.50 ones)
EV at start of hand 838.76
EV after fold 831.88
EV after taking it down pre: 853.87
EV after winning flip with BB: 1010.91
EV after losing flip with BB: 511
So this is the basic point, compared to just taking it down pre, winning a flip is less than half as good as losing a flip is bad.
Last edited by LektorAJ; 12-14-2015 at 05:42 AM.
Reason: added numbers