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AJ in SB in FT 8/180 AJ in SB in FT 8/180

08-16-2011 , 03:11 AM
FT..8 players left. No such read on villain, in 10 hand 56/45. I saw only 2 showdown of the villain- A7o from UTG+1, KTs from MP1. In both the cases and in this hand he raised the same amount.



    Poker Stars, $7.34 Buy-in (1,500/3,000 blinds, 300 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #10290222

    BTN: 7,552 (2.5 bb)
    Hero (SB): 38,500 (12.8 bb)
    BB: 27,362 (9.1 bb)
    UTG+2: 44,435 (14.8 bb)
    MP1: 87,587 (29.2 bb)
    MP2: 36,648 (12.2 bb)
    MP3: 7,755 (2.6 bb)
    CO: 20,161 (6.7 bb)

    Preflop: (2,400) Hero is SB with J A
    UTG+2 raises to 6,000, 3 folds, CO calls 6,000, BTN folds
    Hero???
    Spoiler:
    Results: 18,900 pot
    Hero mucked J A and lost (-1,800 net)
    BB mucked and lost (-3,300 net)
    UTG+2 mucked and lost (-6,300 net)
    CO mucked and lost (-6,300 net)



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    08-16-2011 , 03:27 AM
    i think its pretty close. i definitely shove AQ, not 100% sure what i do here.

    given, we know he's raising wider than A J, based on the hands you've seen him go to showdown with. but what we don't know is what % of his range he calls 3 bet jams with. i think we can safely assume he folds A 7 and K 10s to a jam. does he ever call with A 10, or K Q from that spot? probably not, but who knows. 56/45 over 10 hands doesn't tell me much, especially since a good player should be taking advantage of the FT bubble and weaker players who want to grind out a pay jump or 2. i raise/fold a fair amount against most players in these situations...just so much dead money.

    personally, i play to win. and that being said, i probably ship the A J - taking into consideration his perceived preflop raise range and the fold equity that he has.
    08-16-2011 , 03:43 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by josh1985
    i definitely shove AQ, not 100% sure what i do here.
    +1

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by josh1985
    personally, i play to win. and that being said, i probably ship the A J - taking into consideration his perceived preflop raise range and the fold equity that he has.
    This is where I have dilemma. So far what I have seen, I am very inclined to ship it in. But I was just thinking AJ is beatable by many hands, should we wait
    for a bit long when the field got down to 3-4 players to take this kind of risk.
    08-16-2011 , 04:50 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sayakmitra
    +1


    This is where I have dilemma. So far what I have seen, I am very inclined to ship it in. But I was just thinking AJ is beatable by many hands, should we wait
    for a bit long when the field got down to 3-4 players to take this kind of risk.
    AJ is def beatable by many hands, but villain is raising much wider than hands he would actually call our shove with. i gotta think he's raise folding a lot in this spot.

    im sure some might fold here, and some might shove. having only 10 hands of history kinda dicks our read of what his ranges should be to some degree, but assuming he's a semi winning, semi reg, given his stack size, he should absolutely be raising here fairly wide to isolate short stacks and blind steal. at the same time, he should be aware of our stack size as well, knowing he can't really call a 3-bet shove without the nuts. that being said, he could be awful and call off with 77 or some ****. ahhhhh poker

    id definitely be curious to see what others think of this spot
    08-16-2011 , 04:56 AM
    Reads on CO would be really useful, but I probably shove this. The tighter CO has been playing the more likely I am to fold, but my default would be to stick it in.
    08-16-2011 , 09:39 AM
    Very read dependent, as standar I would fold.
    08-16-2011 , 09:44 AM
    Standard I shove as well unless I know more about CO.
    08-16-2011 , 11:39 AM
    fold is good!
    08-16-2011 , 11:53 AM
    Since you seen him open A7o from utg+1 with that stack size im shoving here.
    08-16-2011 , 12:01 PM
    personally, i find it hard to believe CO has AQ, AK, i would think the vast majority of players (even bad ones) would opt to just shove those hands, as opposed to 'trapping'/inducing or whatever they think theyre doing.

    i see bads stack off from that spot with such a wide range, its actually rather humorous. not to suggest he isn't flatting AA or KK occasionally, because he is. i do too.

    no read or hands on CO makes it a tougher decision, but i think i opt to shove most of the time.

          
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