Hi all. First strat post for me. Would like some opinions here.
Villain is a very good reg. I'm going to assume he knows me, but not certain about this.
After thinking about every option, I don't like a single one of them.
Cheers guys

*shrug* wp

Care to elaborate? I'd like some justification, as ingame I shoved because I didn't know what else to do, and "all in" is just one button. Looking at it now I just can't find a reason why it's "wp".

Ok....lets go over the 4 options. First of all it is important that you have a decent amount of history with him before considering the following...

Fold?.....no lol u have jj, we're getting this in obv
Call?.....if he is a good reg, he will be pretty sure u are nutted in this spot unless u do the same with 77,88, aj, a10 etc....balance is important in these spots imo
3 bet?....this looks so strong, unless u have a lot of history with villian and make a very small 3 bet...u also need to be balanced in this spot but I think this is unlikely as is a fairly hard spot to be balanced in lol.
Shove?....this is standard to me, as any reg will do the same with aq, ak type hands here which this play is so weighted towards. U should get him to call with 99, 1010 type hands here.

For me, gameflow is also very important. Were u very aggro up until this point? Was he stealing a bunch before this hand? I think factor all this in before u make ur final decision here, its surprising how much of a difference can this make

Thanks for your response action10. Appreciate the concise breakdown.

I agree that call and 3bet look really strong. And interesting point about balancing ranges. Though as you said yourself, it's a hard spot to be balancing here, most likely unnecessary and possibly costly to try it.

My thoughts about shoving were that only better will call. I am jamming on a UTG open from a top reg. Not sure if I can get 99/AQ to call? I guess that's the difficult thing to judge.

Unfortunately I have no idea about gameflow as I stack my tables. Nor do I have any special reads other than he's a very profitable player. I don't have notes on him.

So a good reg with no info.... what range do we think he r/c and r/f UTG here? I just think whatever we do here, he can play perfectly against us, which discomforts me.

ship it, or u could do some wacky **** and cib

even if bb is v short, its a $7 and ppl play bad so even if hes very good he should easily be wide enough to shove here.

cib (call shove) is more fun. it will probably freezes a lot of his range and get him to check a lot of flops to u ip with no side pot if bb comes along. will force him to play more face up. can cb / (min bet ) or check pending flops. u dont have to worry about the balance right now and sort that out later after the hand gets shown down and make all the necessary adjustments to how he'll perceive a future one.

BB

We want the bb to come in with a wide range of hands that jj crushes. not stoved it or done any math but i think the only hands you dont want in, that arn't getting it in anway, are suited with an overcard.

so whats more likely to get bb to fold the hands we dont want in?

shove

if bbs a rec then he'll most likely look at a shove and fold slightly wider as reshoves are scary!. if bb is a reg might look at it and call wider as utg+1 is more likely to fold and therefore more dead money in the pot.

cib

if you cib, the reg will fold wider (as the original raiser will call and therefore no deadmoney) and the rec get in probably about the same as mainly just going on absolute hand strength.

if it goes multiway then the suited connecter stuff is more likely to stay in which is good for us.

a flat may encourage bb to call wider which is good, but gets less money in the pot against villian which is bad, so i dont really like that option.

Back to Orignal Raiser

aq is a ****ty spot for villian to call the shove (average vpip 45 reg vs average vpip 45 reg), say aqs calls and aqo folds. we are happy with aqo folding obv. the question is what gets more money in with tt-, probably a shove as often as a shove is often weighted more to aq ak in villians eyes where as cib villian has a hard time puttin u on a range, but his first thought would be aa.

if you cib you may lose value against those hands post if over cards come and allow kq or other single overcard broadways to see flop cheap. if he calls a cib with aq he will be unlikely to get 5 cards to hit post which is good tho.

last point is that turbo mttsng regs gerenally play very poorly postflop so taking anything postflop usually gains extra ev.


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difficult hand to comment on as our images are a little different. i think a cib would work better for me, but a shove for u. having a good think about it jj seems to be the wrong kind of hand to cib with generally unless you have a spazzy image.

CLIFFS: SHOVE

easy shovy

/thread

If hes one of those really good regs with a huge profit, its possible that hes playing like 24 tables and a $7 45 man is at the bottom of his schedule....So I think he could easily call u with aq, 99 etc here if he has like 1 second to decide. Not a great call vs you maybe, but if he views you as a random its more than a possibility that he just sighs and goes for it and say who cares its $7.

Exelent example ty for i time

Im just going to step in here. If villian is a very good reg.

What do u guys think will happen if we ship?

Do u rly think he calls AQ, 99, TT? Well i dont. Not if:

So im pretty sure a pretty good reg, that knows robinho2611 (who is obv crushing these games) dont get it in light here.

Cause what hands is robinho2611 rly shipping here? Right i thought so!

So we are rly rly rly allowing this very good reg (that prob knows hero) to play perfect by shoving.

Theres no doubt imo, he is gonna fold all things we beat and call with all things that crush us. Maybe, maybe he is calling AK. But else he calls JJ+, where JJ is unlikely bc we have blockers.

I hate all our options to!

You play alot, he's a TOP reg and you have no info/stats on him? more info required but has to be shove as default or if he never calls worse then don't mind a flat.

I think there is stats, just forgotten in op!

Well at least not shove then!

Well no because we most likely get at least one cbet then give up from him on most boards.

Who says that? Most boards? U should be aware that a rly good regs will have his "alarm bells" go off when we flat.

So if we also call his flopbet, then it would require him to have a souldread to bet turn again on like Qc 4s 7h, 2h,

With hands like AK, AJ, 88, 99, TT,...

I cbet all the time vs nitty regs flatting me in strange spots. No saying he wouldn't. Be nice to know who it is for more info...

Yeah exactly, but when u get called u stop for a sec without a made hand right!

Depends lol.

U cib and get in vs 4bet? Or u cib and fold vs 4bet?

JayPez - Thanks for your advice, really appreciate it.

I'm surprised you care so much about BB. I guess he's so short that it's worth thinking about what he calls if we're "stealing" with a trashy hand. But surely if we have JJ we can just not really care? Or is there more to it?

Don't really understand why him calling with KXs, for example, becomes bad for us. And you can say that "we want BB to call with wide range that JJ crushes". Haven't done any maths but it feels OK if he calls with whatever range surely? Sounds like contradicting statements to me. I'm probs missing something as it's coming from you though . Also, in game I'd never have time to think about BB, or I might not even look at his stack to be honest!

Your point about most regs play poorly postflop. I'm one of them, haha! With CIB, I would feel silly when reshipped on, because surely that HAS to be JJ+/AK? Interesting option though.



OK, it might be, but this is really not constructive. If you're gonna say this then please state why. Thanks.


Good point. If we are just considering shove/fold pre, then knowing whether he can call with 99/AQo (or worse) is the key. But it's hard to know, which brings me onto....

Yep, a big poker leak of mine is not taking enough notes. But as far as stats go... all I can say is that they're "reggy", and after scoping the guy, it's clear he's good. Afraid that's all the info I have.

This is my thinking. It just seems to me like we can only win small pots or lose big ones. Which I think goes the same for flatting and trying to play on 942r flops.


Thanks for everyone's responses.

Pretty sure you can go into your database and find his 1st in raise from EP with >15bbs?

obv call and be happy about it. cib fold would be the worst option.

bb being short makes the hand interesting. most important thing about it is it tightens up villians range. 2nd is the range of hands he'll get in against us.

we want bb to fold when hes priced in get it in when hes not.

i did some stoving cause i was wrong about suited and overcard theres more hands hu he can get in with and less multiway.

hu needs 28% he can get it in profitably with these hands vs jj.

qq+, a2s+, k2s+, q2s+, ato+, a2o-a5o, k9o+ q8o+.

multiway needs like 24%.

against JJ and 88+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,AQo+ he can get it in with these hands.

qq+ aqs+ kqs+ and aqo+ kqo+

So shoving makes it easier for bb more to get hands in correctly as it goes hu a lot more where we would rather him fold in that case.

where cib, it will go multiway a lot as so hes forced to fold a lot more of his range or get it in incorrectly.

i'm no cib expert but have been experimenting with it more recently and it kinda felt right in this spot. 1st time i've done analysis on it.


a cib from a mass multitabling tag looks superstong so his get in range is will probably jj+, ak, but against someone with a spazy image it would be wider. so say you did this occasinaly with some suited **** (blockers are good) he may make mistakes postflop but incorrectly assessing your range.

3b small/ fold has some merit.

It is hard to choose which option is the best because they are almost equal - we are playing against a good reg with a hand that is 50/50 vs. him a lot of the time, so we can't expect to extract an enormous amount of value from this anyway with a 19BB stack.
So maybe we should just play this hand differently every time we get in to the spot like this, shove most of the time, and be happy when we're winning couple of blinds if we push and everyone folds, because that is better than flipping.

Oh and actually, we have antes already, we are getting 1008 chips (+ more than 25% our stack) if everyone folds. Easy shove. No worries if he folds 99.
And if the villain opened pretty wide, which he should, can we extract more than 1008 chips on average if we flat or 3-bet small vs. a very good reg + BB? Maybe 200 more. But a lot more if he'd call our shove with 99, TT.

And yeah, the player on the BB seems to be very important to us because he should call with like top 40-60%. It is best if he's in HU vs. us. Otherwise we'd win like 45% of the time only if 3-way but at least 70% vs. BB only.

Shove seems the best most of the time, especially if we're not good post, winning us 1008 chips if everyone folds, about 800 if BB calls and about 900 if UTG calls and we flip vs. lets say AQ, AK, and 700 if both call and we flip with UTG, on average.

Not sure how I got those numbers.

Correcting myself. Must have been drunk last night, those numbers should be more like this (approximately):

u guys are seriously insane. this is the most obvious hand in this forum and you are starting the most pointless discussion ever.
its a ****ing standard shove