Very new to the table when this hand occured. I'd had a few up and down levels but sat on my highest chipstack for the tourney when it abruptly came to an end. Villain had just picked up most of his stack when it looked like someone tried to bluff him off a turned flush on the previous hand or two.



PF I considered a squeeze but given the stacks I didn't want to 3bet and commit a large portion of my stack to have to fold from a shove from the raiser, or just shove myself into trouble, so I figured setmine.

Initially I loved the flop but looking back I figure Villian doesn't lead out on a big draw, leaving A5, A2, 54, possibly 77/88 in my head. Am I overthinking, or is a shove here too spewy or OK because I have outs?

i dont like it, you can easily fold and still have a good 25bb stack to work with. Whats the worst your really going to see when called, which is going to be a fair amount of time when villian leads pot, best case flush draw with 2 overs, 77 and 2 pair, not a good spot imo.

anything but shoving seems really bad on the flop, dont be result oriented and dont post results.
also not sure why you assume villain wouldnt lead with a draw (fd + 2 overs / combo draws...)

Whoops, apologies I don't post hands very often!

Guess I didn't think he'd lead out a big draw as he could just check/shove something like A6s or A3s as he has the chips to make us fold the kind of hand I have, though I suppose that could certainly make sense.

So having just called PF is a shove here necessarily bad? Obviously once doing it I knew I was gambling - is it literally a case where the math might redeem the shove or is it still just pure gambling?

I dont like this play, I would rather squeeze PF or just setmine and fold this flop, this is more of a gamble IMO..hes not going to fold any pair, his bet is also a PSB which makes it obvious hes commited

Well, you don't give much info on villain (does he open a lot, is he tight etc). So my range below might be off, but i gave my best try to come up with a range. I disagree with the assumption that he wouldn't lead a big draw tbh.

First i agree with your analysis for preflop play (3bet/folding really sucks in that spot, if you 3bet and someone flats, it's going to get ugly postflop with 66,etc) But i'd like to point out that just shipping pre is likely +EV. Obviously depends on the openers' ranges for opening+calling. But there's a flatter who sweetens the pot for us, there are antes and we have a hand that plays pretty awful postflop. Shoving might be best in some cases imo.

That being said, calling is definately also fine and might be even more+EV.(again, it just depends on the ranges you assign to your opponents. If the initial raiser is on the tight side, there is more incentive to set-mine, because of better implied odds, etc)


Postflop:

After his really huge cbet, i think we can safely assume he's not going to fold. Which is the only reason that this hand isn't just an automatic raise/get it in on this flop. We hit a dream flop here. With the range given below, it's still okay to get it in here. (not sure if he opens all the FD combos pre, but i think it's a reasonable range for villain overall)


Board: 543
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****46.18%**44.21%***1.97%*{ 6s6c }
MP3****53.82%**51.85%***1.97%*{ 22+, A5s-A4s, A2s, 76s, 65s, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, 8d7d, Ad6d, Ad3d, A6o-A5o, A2o }


We're behind vs this range, but we have enough equity to get it in here (because of the money already in the pot) And this is assuming he never folds preflop, which is probably true.


So, to summarize, i like the shove. nh.

i like the hand, fold in this flop? lol never