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.50 45m FT (shot taking) float ok due to ICM? .50 45m FT (shot taking) float ok due to ICM?

02-13-2015 , 07:20 PM
Reads as per the 66 hand (also player from the other FT2). The basic idea is that I am now the chip leader and calling pre and floating the flop because I think ICM will force him to play straightforward against me on later streets. As played, he put the brakes on OTT and I was able to take it down, but I am more interested to know if you think this kind of reasoning is ok on the earlier streets when you have the chip lead on the bubble. I also am assuming that if he is a regular and thinks I am a fish he is thinks I will probably play straightforward.

    Poker Stars, $3.19 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    CO: 11,821 (29.6 bb)
    Hero (BTN): 12,994 (32.5 bb)
    SB: 3,689 (9.2 bb)
    BB: 3,411 (8.5 bb)
    UTG+1: 9,416 (23.5 bb)
    UTG+2: 3,283 (8.2 bb)
    MP1: 8,130 (20.3 bb)
    MP2: 8,042 (20.1 bb)
    MP3: 6,714 (16.8 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with T Q
    3 folds, MP2 raises to 1,200, 2 folds, Hero calls 1,200, 2 folds

    Flop: (3,225) 4 6 2 (2 players)
    MP2 bets 1,600, Hero calls 1,600

    Turn: (6,425) J (2 players)
    MP2 checks, Hero bets 6,425, MP2 folds

    02-14-2015 , 05:30 AM
    preflop: standard fold vs MP 3x

    flop: as played, easy fold

    turn: as played, I guess taking a stab is ok, but never pot it like this, screams bluff

    sorry, imo this is spewy bad play, you're lucky its vs fish

    maybe others can also comment, im interested to hear as well
    02-16-2015 , 10:51 PM
    If this was early in the tourney I'd say you played perfectly. But when most everyone is under 20BB, there's not a lot of room to get fancy. And both blinds prob feel they need at least one more steal to be safe, and squeezing could look very attractive to them. So I see your point about V's ICM but blinds are a different matter.

    Also, his PFR was 3x, and that makes a play like this more expensive when it doesn't work. If he raised 2x, again there's more room and less risk.

    As played, I think a bet OTT is mandatory. If you aren't gonna bet the turn what are we even doing here? Your PF call and F call indicate overpair to the board, so the story checks out.
    02-17-2015 , 06:35 PM
    Assuming the average random will have any clue about ICM is not a good idea imo, they may play tighter due to scared money around the bubble. Only the better regs especially in a reg speed 45man will apply ICM close to correctly.
    02-17-2015 , 07:16 PM
    ^ Yeah sorry, I mean general nittery related to laddering and min-cashing rather than actual mathematical ICM.
    02-18-2015 , 05:29 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mktpppr
    preflop: standard fold vs MP 3x

    flop: as played, easy fold

    turn: as played, I guess taking a stab is ok, but never pot it like this, screams bluff

    sorry, imo this is spewy bad play, you're lucky its vs fish

    maybe others can also comment, im interested to hear as well
    This
    02-18-2015 , 05:33 AM
    Fold pre, as played flop and turn is very good!
    02-18-2015 , 04:05 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Turn
    This
    I'm also agree

          
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