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2.50 180 man - 99 facing strong lookin min raise from ep 2.50 180 man - 99 facing strong lookin min raise from ep

01-13-2014 , 05:04 PM
I find when people make small min raises from ep with smallish stacks, it's usually a very strong hand or else they would likely shove. I don't think we can ever really fold here but I'm more interested in people's thoughts/range in these types of spots

forgot/edit: no reads on villain, 2 hand sample (50/50); this is the hand he raised

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $2.28 Buy-in (400/800 blinds, 75 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #22231251

UTG+2: 9,298 (11.6 bb)
MP1: 9,750 (12.2 bb)
MP2: 3,693 (4.6 bb)
Hero (MP3): 6,998 (8.7 bb)
CO: 12,694 (15.9 bb)
BTN: 6,889 (8.6 bb)
SB: 10,635 (13.3 bb)
BB: 13,157 (16.4 bb)
UTG+1: 3,965 (5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9 9
2 folds, MP1 raises to 1,600

Hero?
Hero w 44?
Hero w AT?

Thanks!

Last edited by huesos; 01-13-2014 at 05:13 PM. Reason: villain
01-13-2014 , 08:31 PM
Ok, here's what I think. First I must tell you that I am not totally agree with you. He can make this min-raise in that level because it has the same merit as a 2.25BB raise. Second he is MP not EP. But some people make this play shallow I agree.

The pot is 3475 and you have 6900. If you push, your opponent needs to call 5300 in to a 10375 pot, so he has about 2:1 and he's never folding, if he knows anything about poker (and assuming that he doesn't have a garbage, obviously)
You push 6900 to win a 8775 (6900 the call of your opp + 1875 blinds and antes). So you need about 6900/(6900+6900+1875)=0.44 or need 44% equity to break even. But you need above average to be profitable play, say 46% eq. So it all depends on his range.
If he raises 66+, (AJo+, A9s, suited broadways), then push (88+, AQ+)
If he raises 77+, (AQo+, ATs+, suited broadways), then push (99+, AKo+, AQs+)
If he raises 99+, (AQo+, ATs+),KQs then push (TT+, AK)
Plant the ranges in an equity calculator and find every hand for yourself. Is that simple.
In that position, 99 is a clear push to me... I fold the other two.
01-13-2014 , 09:56 PM
I agree, I'd definitely shove 99 here without a very read that MP1 was ultra tight. Without running it through a calculator, in game I'm shoving 77+, AJ+.

The other thing is that even though opp should call your shove with whatever he raised, at this level I don't think they fold 0% of the time which is obviously additional equity.
01-14-2014 , 12:27 AM
jam this every time. fold both 44 and AT.
01-14-2014 , 07:50 PM
Shoving.

      
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