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.50/180 - FT 9 handed push with no fold equity .50/180 - FT 9 handed push with no fold equity

11-17-2011 , 09:51 AM
This seems like a push, ICM says no, but I'm so short and I don't think I should be passing up clear +cEV shoves like this.

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Poker Stars, $2.28 Buy-in (2,000/4,000 blinds, 400 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #11076122

CO: 95,488 (23.9 bb)
BTN: 13,910 (3.5 bb)
SB: 22,766 (5.7 bb)
BB: 5,107 (1.3 bb)
UTG+1: 9,162 (2.3 bb)
UTG+2: 29,217 (7.3 bb)
MP1: 51,419 (12.9 bb)
MP2: 10,610 (2.7 bb)
Hero (MP3): 32,321 (8.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T J
4 folds, Hero raises to 31,921 and is all-in
11-17-2011 , 11:11 AM
The main problem here is having little FE against the BB. Since you can't really steal the blinds, it's usually better to let the BB bust. On the upside you cover everyone except for the CO. I think it's really really close with good arguments on both sides.
11-17-2011 , 10:38 PM
Yeah and in general in spots like this you have to cut off the bottom of your shoving range compared to if BB weren't committed. reason is a HUGE part of the reason shoving is profitable in any given spot (except premiums like AA KK etc) is fold equity, i.e. when everyone folds and we immediately win blinds/antes. when the BB is committed this happens basically 0% of the time so a shove is way less profitable. Also there are a few short stacks (very short in fact) so busting would be kind of a disaster in general (ICM etc)

when you shove and everyone but the bb folds, yes it's profitable because you are getting it in vs. atc with sick pot odds with a hand that is already ahead of atc (jto has 55% or so vs atc, which is what the bbs range will be), but everytime you get called by someone else you are obviously going to be behind (which is normally fine since the fold equity would compensate of the ev lost when called)

this is a clear fold, but if bb had like 30k or whatever it would be thin but fine in general

      
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