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2.50 180 2.50 180

02-01-2015 , 10:55 AM
Hello,

I'm working on reviewing more games to find leaks and reach a higher ROI.
1 of the things i'm struggling with is calling ranges.

Villain seems decent 15/11 48 hands
I suppose this is a fold, but can somebody explain the math behind decisions like this, so that i can work on this in the future.

Many thanx



    Poker Stars, $2.28 Buy-in (50/100 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #34591521

    MP3: 1,255 (12.6 bb)
    CO: 1,410 (14.1 bb)
    BTN: 1,200 (12 bb)
    SB: 4,905 (49.1 bb)
    BB: 4,705 (47.1 bb)
    Hero (UTG+1): 3,425 (34.3 bb)
    UTG+2: 2,340 (23.4 bb)
    MP1: 1,440 (14.4 bb)
    MP2: 1,645 (16.5 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8 8
    Hero raises to 200, 3 folds, MP3 raises to 1,255 and is all-in, 5 folds

    Spoiler:
    Results: 550 pot
    MP3 mucked and won 550 (350 net)



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    02-01-2015 , 12:46 PM
    There isn't much to explain. It will cost you 1055 to make the call. You could win a 2660 pot. If you think your chances of winning are at least 39.6% (1055/2660) then you should make the call.

    It gets a bit more complicated later on when you have the chance to ladder up the pay jumps - then you should tend to fold in close spots.

    I would call here. Of course you may be up against an over pair and have a 20% chance of winning, but more likely you are against two over cards and have a 50-60 percent chance of winning (depending on his straight and flush possibilities but usually towards the top end of that range). In the best case he may have a lower pair giving you an 80% chance.
    02-01-2015 , 01:52 PM
    I'd probably say it's a fold, considering it's a very tight player, 15/11 probably means he is super tight against an UTG open. There's also the problem that he is shoving into multiple people behind him, so that makes his range even tighter. If we put him on 99-AA, AQ and AK you don't have the required equity of 39.6% to call.

    Just use calculator for odds and some simulator like pokerstove or this: http://www.propokertools.com/simulations for ranges.
    02-02-2015 , 07:52 AM
    This is the exact bottom of my calling range.
    02-02-2015 , 09:29 AM
    Probably not worth sweating this specific hand. Call/Fold isnt going to make a huge difference long term. Because I am a nit I probably fold.

    Two ways to do this kind of maths.

    - as per above work out how much equity you need based on pot odds and then plug ranges into a tool like pokerstove (sorry im old school - there are probably newer tools but i still like good old pokerstove).

    - buy an icm calculator - most of them have a cEV mode which automates everything for you and of course you can use ICM mode for final table spots. If you have HEM buy SNGWizard and you can do everything in one place. Dont really know the other tools. There a bunch of tools and I think some online calculators that you get a certain number of free uses per day etc. Google is your friend. I havent looked at the tools for a while but there is plenty of stuff out there.
    02-02-2015 , 03:19 PM
    Many thanx for the reply's, so if i understand the math correctly i need 54% in the hand attached. Lets say that shoving range of villain is 26% then i only have 37% and is this call a big mistake right?

    Shoving ranges are more easy to memorize while playing or you can use lists but do you guys have tips for ingame calling ranges. Knowing the math is 1 thing but deceide i a few seconds is another thing. Is it just review and memorizing or do you guys start from a sort of basic reshove range in a certain spot and go from there?

      Poker Stars, $2.28 Buy-in (800/1,600 blinds, 150 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #34607631

      BTN: 49,450 (30.9 bb)
      Hero (SB): 5,708 (3.6 bb)
      BB: 20,635 (12.9 bb)
      MP: 30,553 (19.1 bb)
      CO: 16,300 (10.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 7 8
      MP folds, CO raises to 16,150 and is all-in, BTN folds, Hero calls 4,758 and is all-in, BB folds

      Flop: (13,466) 5 2 5 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
      Turn: (13,466) 2 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
      River: (13,466) 8 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

      Spoiler:
      Results: 13,466 pot
      Final Board: 5 2 5 2 8
      Hero showed 7 8 and won 13,466 (7,758 net)
      CO showed T Q and lost (-5,708 net)



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      02-02-2015 , 03:38 PM
      In the second example you are getting 2 to 1 on the call. Basically it's always a call of an all-in pre-flop if you are getting those odds because hands are usually worth at least 33 percent equity. 7h8h is what I personally call a 40 percenter hand. Meaning it is rarely best but it is worth at least 40 percent equity even against averagely strong ranges, so I would call this as long as I had 1.5 to 1 odds.
      02-03-2015 , 02:48 PM
      So in general you call any2 when you have 2:1?
      02-06-2015 , 03:32 PM
      All-ins yes, at least in the situations typical for my games.

            
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