Hello guys, currently playing on stars 18man 7$ after a few years playing mtts and 45s e 180s. My main objective is to get to the 30$ 60$ games and to reach supernova with at least 20k profit this year.

This is my graphic so far (8% ROI):




My question is about my finish distribution in therms of places. I´m getting this ones over 1.8k games, they look diferent than the regs i searched. Can someone with experience tell me what should i do diferent in therms of my ICM game. It looks like i got too many 3rd and few 2nd and 1st places. Also got a litle bit more bubles than i should i guess. If someone had something like this and think that this should changed and know why i would be very glad to know your opinion

Finish distribution:


Thanks!

I think we crossed the tables yesterday night when I bumped up some when railing my friend at the TCOOP#3. Im playing the $7 as well, will look my finish distribution up for you.

edit: at first glance I think bubblegame seems to be a thing yes. Maybe your FT game is a bit of and your not exploiting enough. Not sure about ITM places 1/2/3 though.

Most of the numbers for final table places look to be a within a couple of standard deviations of the mean. Over 1800 matches you should have a 100 finishes in each place. With your ROI it is more like 117 in the higher places, with a standard deviation of just under 11 (when we are talking about distributions where you have a relatively low number like 117 coming out of a relatively high number like 1800 it is close enough to just use the square root as the standard deviation). Maybe I don't understand the graph but don't you have a relatively low number of bubbles and a relatively high number of 1,2,3 places? - although 4th and 5th still look to be within 2 SDs so it could be random. Maybe the others don't understand the ICM pressure. When I first saw a 4-3-2-1 prize structure I assumed the bubble would not be a big factor as the gap between 4th and 3rd was the same as the gap between 4th and 5th - compared to MTTs or traditional SNGs with a cliff edge at the bubble. The others are maybe stacking off too light, including when they make the min cash. It might be their leak not yours.

The thing that strikes me most is that you are not finishing in the bottom 3 enough At least in my 25 cent and dollar tournaments you always get a few fools who are much more likely to go out first - stacking off preflop with A9o to AA - my graph looks the same, but at $7 there should be fewer of them. Are you sure you aren't playing too tight in the early stages or overestimating the ICM at that stage? I don't know how easy it is to pull up statistics but how often do you have a the chip lead after 3 eliminations because I suspect it is not as often as it could be.

+1 for this question.
Maybe too tight early and therefore not enough stack/FE left to put pressure on other players in the first table bubble (5/6handed). Even at the 7's there are still enough ******s left to aim for early, ... before other sharks beat you to it. Could be a multitable issue btw, not paying enough attention finding soft spots early.

I am by no means an expert in this topic, but the distribution suggests to me that your heads up game could use some work, it is very easy to realise your edge heads up if you have one, which you almost certainly can at this level (i.e it's more than jut nash push/fold). Also sample size.

Thansk to all the answers!

I already started worked on my HU game because that is one of the things that first came in mind to me. If i´m not winning many HU´s e might be doing something wrong, so lets work on it! When i have a bigger sample i will take a look and see if it changed something.

I might be too tigh in the first hands of the final table but i guess it could me more a multitable issue. I started with 15 tables and I´m playing 17 now, the diference is that in the last days i played some mtt´s too because they got a lot of value. I guess i will stop with that and take it back to 15 tables for a couple of days.

Can you share with me where do you look at that deviation in therms of expected places?
I use to look at it with a variance calculator to predict my profit and bigger swings that can come with the months!

Again, thanks to all of you!
Sorry about my english!

Again if someone with a great sample sees this and shares is thought on distribution it will be great! Lets keep the discussion up!

I read your profit per hand off the graph as 52 cents per game. So you are generating 7.52 in prizes per game instead of the average of 6.43 (entry fee - rake), so you should have (100*7.52/6.43)-1 = 17 percent more finishes in the money positions than the average. Over 1800 games the average is 100 finishes per position.

Standard deviation is a term in Mathematics - you would do better to find the translation and read more about it in your own language. For this use, SD is close to the square root of expected number of finishes. Generally if a number is within 2 SDs of the average people tend to assign it to random chance. So if you have an extra ten percent of wins when you should have 100 (SD=10) - it doesn't mean much - it is one SD away from expectation. If you have an extra 10 percent of wins when you should have 1000 (SD=31) the people would treat that as a sign that you were really getting extra finishes in that position because you are now 3 SDs away from expectation.

its maybe not so much the hu game. it could be the icm pressure you exert is not enough preceding hu where you are missing out getting in with 4-1 3-1 cl and a walk in the park for 1st

Hey guys, don't want to make new thread so gonna ask here, maybe you know where is better to start off learning 18-mans? I looked at sng grinders training site, but 18-mans pack costs 225$ so for now it is a bit too much for me. Or maybe you know some good articles where is good for beginners?

You should use something like ICMizer our another ICMcalculator to study ICM spots. The rest is just chipEV

Hi

Ive started on 18mans this month, although this graph is based on a small sample size can i get some of your thoughts on it ? I intend to increase the sample greatly in the next few months but a first impression would help my game.

file:///C:/Users/Shaun/Downloads/SharkScopeChart.svg

file:///C:/Users/Shaun/Downloads/SharkScopeChart%20(1).svg


Thanks

I can´t see your images...

have you tried pasting the link into your browser ?

Assuming good faith. The C: drive is on your own machine so it works for you. If we paste the link into our browsers the computer looks for files on our machines. People here usually upload files to image shack and then use the "landscape painting" icon in 2p2 to include it in a post.

ah apologies I didnt realise

Here are the uploads , as I said before though quite a small sample size

It looks like a really small sample because of the variance i can spot in that images. Any opinion will not make any sense... Do a bigger sample please!

as lektor pointed out, with your sample size and results you really shouldn't be looking to alter your shorthanded play based on finish distribution - this graph doesn't tell you anything conclusive about your heads up/three handed play at all. The low amount of 17th/18th places is odd, but I wouldn't go crazy about it. Focusing on individual hands/decisions is going to be much more productive than trying to draw anything from this.

shaunjubb you shouldn't even be looking at finish position except for ****s & giggles with how few you've played - it's almost completely meaningless.

Working on it