For his 3b range, not our calling range (for clarification)
Edit: Ahh, I just saw your edit! I agree he can def be wider here, but given we have no real reads in the OP I erred on the side of caution, and that range is one I feel that almost all regs will be 3betting. I also agree ranges aren't static, but if I had to work to a cautious default in this case without any other reads, that's probably what I'd go from.
Everyone made a good point, but what do people think his [BTNs] true range is here? Giving him even really low pairs is kind of optimistic.. I know that as the big stack I often play really tight here..
Yeah I think it's a bit optimistic too and after running some sims definitely think without a 'good feel' for his range you shouldn't call off a hand like 99/AQ even (but can think of a number of regs I'd call against). But after some of the latter points have been made I'm also finding it way worse to fold a hand like TT/AK. Also when faced with a decision to call in a close spot I think the fact that you win the event quite a bit when you win this hand should also be relevant to a decision to call in these structures that aren't true in other SNGs (esp. with the read that they will raise/fold a 10bb stack or w/e).
I agree with your post AMT, especially the part about the % of time we win the tourney if we win this pot. One thing I'd say is that calling TT makes me slightly nervous for a couple of reasons, but the main one is that basically us having TT puts a lot more AJ and JJ in his range (which would instinctively feel like a solid chunk of somebody's 30BB reshove range to me) than he would have if we were calling off JJ, and all of a sudden we have 8 more flips and 6 more crushes to worry about.
Thanks. I didn't actually I thought it was ~65.5% after 1st read through. Guess that's a big difference and leaves me on the 'too loose' side of things. But it's important to remember that the latter part of the discussion focuses on "grtd. chops" (for lack of a better term) being more common in a spot like this and some factors that are outside the scope of current ICM calcs.
Thanks. I didn't actually I thought it was ~65.5% after 1st read through. Guess that's a big difference and leaves me on the 'too loose' side of things. But it's important to remember that the latter part of the discussion focuses on "grtd. chops" (for lack of a better term) being more common in a spot like this and some factors that are outside the scope of current ICM calcs.
Iiiii donno. I put an example range for villian at 77-KK, AQ+. Vs this AK has 50% equity and chops 7%. QQ doesnt have enough equity by a couple % and chops 1%.
Awice, do you really think that's a realistic range for villain? Given his commanding chiplead, position, and ability to exert pressure on the 2nd stack, it seems to me like he has more Ax in his shoving than you credit him with, and chances of him having KK (and possibly QQ) here also have to be discounted to some extent, don't you think?
I'd guess a conservatively realistic range to be 88-JJ, 3 combos of QQ, ATs+, AJo+, but I'd be interested to hear your thoughts.
Vs such a range QQ has about 70% equity and I believe JJ has closer to 65%.
No I dont think its that realistic and basically it varies wildly. Your range is more accurate maybe, but its really hard to say. Vs some it is AK only, some it is {TT-JJ, AK}, and some it is a lot of stuff. I was just showing an example to illustrate how even QQ is probably ****ed... because that equity requirement is so large.
However, I think people discounting QQ,KK are being a bit optimistic and I think you can only discount QQ by at most 20%-35% and KK by at most 35%-60% (and AA by about 50-80%)
Also I can be on board with ATs but AJo type hands is going to be a bit difficult to convince me, he has to be a stone fish that likes shoving for me to think he can have this , and from my understanding of the meta in 180s today I feel like someone that jams here is just insanely strong .. way more than people give credit for.
Also I can be on board with ATs but AJo type hands is going to be a bit difficult to convince me, he has to be a stone fish that likes shoving for me to think he can have this , and from my understanding of the meta in 180s today I feel like someone that jams here is just insanely strong .. way more than people give credit for.
This def gives me someting to think about, and some possible cause for reevaluation. Thanks.
also correct me if i'm wrong about this but i think one of the problems is that in spots where ranges are very narrow and we have a hand that is in villains range, the equity we have is 50% (same hand obv same equity) and we "need" a high amount due to icm, such as 65% or whatever in this hand.. so extreme example if villain shoves AKs exactly and only, if we have AKs it's an easy call even though we have 50% equity. just keep that in mind i guess.
that's what i was saying
ak vs ak is 50% but easy call, 22 vs ak is around 50% but easy fold
its a very good point but eg. say btn has jj and ak only. 18.20% win 57.46% chop.. so icm equity is .1820(257.63) + .5746(207.65) + .2434(80) = 185.68, and fold is 201 equity. so even in that kind of best case, as long as he shoves even one pair, this reasoning isnt enough of a factor.
