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12 left shove after the LP raiser with A9? 12 left shove after the LP raiser with A9?

03-28-2014 , 10:13 AM
is this standard or way too loose here? We both played tag


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $7.34 Buy-in (600/1,200 blinds, 125 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #25347391

Hero (SB): 17,815 (14.8 bb)
BB: 7,426 (6.2 bb)
MP1: 8,275 (6.9 bb)
MP2: 20,542 (17.1 bb)
MP3: 29,450 (24.5 bb)
CO: 12,615 (10.5 bb)
BTN: 11,764 (9.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A 9
3 folds, CO raises to 2,400, BTN folds, Hero raises to 17,690 and is all-in,
03-28-2014 , 10:36 AM
If he is tag the m/r looks suspicious. I think we can be fairly sure he is not folding to a shove. In saying that, there are some players out there bad enough to r/f a 10BB stack.

Id probably fold more often that I would jam to be honest. Has he m/r/f previously? Villain history would be significant here. With the shorty in the BB it makes the min open look a bit stronger. ICM plays a big part also with the two shorty's at the table.

Last edited by flushje; 03-28-2014 at 10:43 AM.
03-29-2014 , 10:05 AM
If you had 10bbs or less I think that's an auto shove but I think relatively speaking your stack is fine and can wait for a better spot.

If he's TAG he could still have a wide range here but seems like he's committed and a good amount of the time might have you beat/racing
03-29-2014 , 10:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by StuckinARutt
If you had 10bbs or less I think that's an auto shove but I think relatively speaking your stack is fine and can wait for a better spot.
You're going to have to explain this concept further, because to me this sounds ridiculous. Are you saying that at 14bb's you would pass on a positive edge or are you saying that at 10bb's you would take a negative edge? Either way, I disagree.
03-29-2014 , 10:38 AM
all I'm saying is without stats, the CO min raise TAG player seems to usually have A9 beat there. Maybe I'm wrong, but in that particular situation I'm prob waiting for a better spot when either I have a better hand or I can do the shoving myself
03-31-2014 , 10:07 PM
i feel like that 2x is pretty strong.. seems unlikely he is r/f there. like stuckinarutt said he's prolly got you beat and i would wait for a better spot
04-01-2014 , 11:50 AM
with 10bb it's unusual a TAG would r/f. In that case Usually his range is ahead of A9o but not always, depends on the player(and stat of course). If he is decent enough, his opening can be pretty wide considering bb is short stakced and raising with 10bb looks stronger than open shove . I won't mind 3b shove here as played.
Do you have more steal stat for the villain or read? If he always opens tight irrespective of the size of stacks to act, it's better fold.
04-01-2014 , 04:03 PM
Unless BB is a rock from 2005 villain should expect a ahove from him. So he shouldn't be wide at all imho...
04-02-2014 , 08:03 AM
Sorry, my bad! I misread the stack of bb before (I read 2.6bb whereas it is 6.2bb). Villain's range should be pretty tight imo, considering our stack, a9o might be marginal fold without read.
04-06-2014 , 05:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by flushje
If he is tag the m/r looks suspicious. I think we can be fairly sure he is not folding to a shove. In saying that, there are some players out there bad enough to r/f a 10BB stack.
because m/r with a 10bb stack is stupid right
what would you guys have done if CO openshoves?
i hope the answer is clearly: call
and as long i do not have the read that his minraise is particularly strong, i get it in every day of the week
04-06-2014 , 06:38 AM
Marginal spot, A9 is not ahead that often here . If villain was opening like every orbit from LP then is a different scenario but at this spot we can fold and still keep a nice reshove-stack for a better spot
04-07-2014 , 09:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dominik07
is this standard or way too loose here? We both played tag
It is a bit odd to min-raise with 10bbs and antes.
At this stage (13 left) and an MTT I wouldn't be too worried about the icm of the situation - there will be some but smallish.
It is a good time to often open up wide but many don't, we mostly need to range the CO to decide.
The min could be for more fold equity against regs but could also be monsters.
It is unlikely that a Hero shove will get a fold (some just may but usually it is equivalent to allin).
Not too much point in a flat as this would allow the bb to see a flop very cheaply so a stop'n'go doesn't work well.
Best assuming it's equivalent to an allin, calculate for this and maybe make any adjustments for icm or any other factors then.
If thi9s was a shove, we can assume the BB will likely just fold so to break even chip wise we need:
Hand equity * final pot size = amount we call
or rearranging
Hand equity = amount we call/final pot size
HE = 10.0 / [10.5 x 2 + 1 + 1] <<=== approx. added 1 for the bb and 1 for the antes
HE = ~43%
For the icm and any other stuff imo we might go as far as 45%, the very small chance of a fold and the BB waking up strong probably about cancel.

This is about 45% vs a range of (55+,A4s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,A7o+,KTo+,QJo), about 20%.
I think the CO could easily push looser than 20% (Nash will be more like 35%) but the min raise seems to warn me that it is more monsters than a fancy play.
If you fold it also allows the BB to call and this clash is likely to give you some icm benefit if the CO isn't wide.
Overall, I probably fold here and wait for some of my own push opportunities but it's close and I would call a simple shove.
(If Hero or the BB does call it's worth noting either way what the CO did here, whether in the hand like hero or not.)

Last edited by BaseMetal2; 04-07-2014 at 09:20 AM.

      
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