This might be the most obvious re jam here but is this ok guys and what is the full range for re shuving in this spot?

Villain is unkown only had 9 hands on him at this stage (guess he got moved from the other table)

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don't have to overshove vs unknown here. 3x pf looks super strong, id muck and wait for a spot with some fold equity

What's he done in the previous 9 hands? Does 3x seem to be his standard?

I like the jam. Not having fold equity cuts both ways - he has to call off with any weaker or dominated hands he raised so the question is how wide do we think he is here?

If we assume he is calling anything he raised with his 2:1 pot odds, our move is profitable chipEV-wise if we have at least 43.3% equity against his range. Just using the % slider to create a range in Equilab we have that percentage against a range of 12.8% (77+, A8s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+) or wider.

To me that means that to fold we need a specific read that he is playing that tight with the chip lead in the CO or that 3x means something very specific.

Yea i dint have any reads on the guy but i guess against a random you can just assume hes tight.

Great reply appreciate the good answer

Thanks

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In general I like your posts, but now I think its a bit off mostly because of the type of assumptions made. Now we are assuming villain to understand pot odds. This assumes villain isn't just clicking random buttons but is a thinking player. In the micro's I see loads of people ignoring taking 2:1 odds when raising. So in general I don't like starting from there. Also, ignoring ICM and calculating from a cEV perspective leaves some part of the answer out.

I agree that - without further reads - we have to make some assumptions though to make an estimation.
- for me: with only 9 hands.. villain is fish until proven otherwise (we will soon see from the VPIP/PFR combination what villain is doing)
- for me: 3x at the 60/120 (15) confirms the above
- for me: 3x usually means no fold equity {like any pp,AT+,KQ}
- for me: with SB being short, even randoms understand that they can't open wide

Either way, I think its close (if not being the absolute) bottom of my range.
With us thinking we have an edge, I fold.

^Thanks

I don't think ICM is that important at this stage. If I understand correctly there are still about 14 people left in and only 4 get paid in these.

If he does fold some of his weaker hands that's fine for us too as pretty much nothing should fold. We're not relying on the assumption that he always calls (maybe we'd like the call from JTo but we want J9o to fold rather than flip against us).

12.8% is super tight from the CO though. When you make it any wider and start to include dominated offsuit aces our equity goes much higher.

The question is what the 3x means specifically. If you are right that it is a tighter, separate range from his normal CO raising range and it only includes strong things he wants to stack off with (e.g. JJ-TT that doesn't want to min-raise and then see overs, or just his strongest hands in general) then we have to fold. I wouldn't assume that in game but then I don't know the 18-man player pool (or the weaker players in it) that well.

I think people who raise 3x at this stage usually tighter.

No stats or anything to back this up, just a trend i've noticed. doesn't have to be a deviation from his standard sizing to be a tell