Quote:
Originally Posted by Zaghomat
I checked Mypokerintel:
So either it's not that rare to run at insane BB/100 over 10k hands and more or this site can not be trusted for accurate tracking
Lol. I am happy to arbitrarily exclude the top two results on that mypokerintel chart simply because "it is not possible to run at 700bb/100 over 100k hands."
To put that in perspective, that's around 40%
more than the unabashed Absolute Poker cheater who was doing everything he could to win as fast as possible.
The subsequent explanation by Scansion makes sense to me.
If you exclude those two self-evidently absurd figures, our cheater in this instance is winning
five times faster than the next best guy.
Quote:
the data is a lot more than not perfect. i'm fairly certain your 10 stddev claim is way off, though i don't have the math expertise to make a better one.
You may be right. In which case, if, instead of being 10 standard deviations above the mean, the suspicious player is only 8 standard deviations, it is only a one in many quadrillions occurence. Whether it is 1 in 10^15 or 1 in 10^21 is, to be honest, pretty marginal.
Other people saying that "lots of people have run hot" and so on (and this isn't directed at you, Ike) are, I think, failing to recognise just
how hot this player ran.
Sure, swongs are one thing, but this is truly extraordinary. Either this player is one of the best players in the world
and has run hotter than anyone else on the planet, or their doing something dodgy.
Either way, UB should investigate it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by teddyFBI
I am nearly 100% sure that I have run at 60bb/100 (30PTBB/100) for a stretch of 3 - 5 thousand hands when I was running white-hot. In fact, checking my PT confirms that. (Granted that's just cherry-picking the stretch of hands when i was running my absolute hottest.)
Sure. If you'd won
2½ times more money over the same stretch, you would be comparable.
Out of the millions of hands that you, a truly good poker player has players has played, at lower stakes and against lesser opposition, your win rate (60bb/100) is not even close to the suspicious player's win rate (150bb/100).
Quote:
Those factors combine to make this situation suspicious, obv, but high winrate alone isn't proof-positive.
Yep - which is why UB needs to properly investigate it.
Quote:
Cliff's notes: People have run *that* hot before over 3K stretches.
No, I don't think they have.
I'm obviously open to changing my mind - but I don't think this is right.
Quote:
But couldn't we learn something important by comparing NioNio's hot run to that of a player we know isn't cheating? Wouldn't the pattern of street-by-street aggression / equity look dramatically different?
Yes, I think this is good.
Quote:
Originally Posted by teddyFBI
Notably absent from this thread is Nat...
He does know of the thread, I understand.