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Suspected super user on UB: Nionio Suspected super user on UB: Nionio

01-08-2008 , 11:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dlpnyc21
sorry about that ike, trambo and i meant we thought he could see our cards. we think he was a "smart" super user in the sense he didn't abuse it (60ptb/100 as opposed to the 500bb/100 for the AP super user) and lost some stacks, but managed to quit every session save 1 a winner. Obviously, trambo and i have more hh (i have around 700 and trambo has around 2300--some of which overlap), so the 15 or so hands we posted were meant to paint a general picture of a smart superuser. we definitely would appreciate if anyone came up with more hh b/c we only have around 2500 unique hh between myself and trambo and he played around 8k+ hands on Nionio. I think you are right ike, in the sense that it's within the realm of probability that a lucky fish could run at 60/40 and win 60bb/100 over 8k hands (although unlikely), but the fact that he dominated everyone universally, only booked 1 losing session out of the 8k hands he played, then magically disappeared on 9/4 is very suspicious.

scratchy1 or others: do you have any more hh? stats?
is there a single hand you posted that strongly suggests he can see your holecards? because there are plenty that strongly suggest he can't.
01-08-2008 , 12:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ike
is there a single hand you posted that strongly suggests he can see your holecards? because there are plenty that strongly suggest he can't.
1. the ak hand v. me when in the rr pot where he flopped a flush draw and crai (i don't think he would try this play if he nkew i had a pair b/c i would call him--he felt he was more likely to be able to get me to fold
2. the a4o hand v. boy where he calls the 4bet, then shoves when he flops a pair (is this standard for a4o?) what if boy had like JJ
3. cold calling with 97o in position to the andrewhawit 3-bet...not in an of itself damning just when he does show up with hands in rr pots they are susipcious...
4. raising with 96ss pre then just chk calling ---which would be highly unsuaul given how he played other hands with top+fd when he happens to be against a top pair better kicker then bluffing when ace hits when he has a showdownable hand
5. floating flop with 64 when trambo was airing out with jt then just chking down when he missed (not betting once trambo actually connected--usual for a floater)...
6. just calling with 68dd when he flushes up on river (knowing he can't fold this hand b/c it's too strong but also knowing he's beat)....
7. the t8 hand v. whee chking two pair behind on river after trambo sets up with AA....cold calling with j9o then calling when shoved on the 253 board--he has to spew sometimes to get his image so he can get paid off later
8.raising with j6o, calling the flop CR then calling the turn shove v. trambo (obv. he can't push flop b/c he has to wait for non diamond to fall)...

--those are just off the top of my head:

i mean, these aren't "damning evidence" but they are certainly suspicious and there are plenty of other scenarios (posted by scratchy1, etc.) that suggest he was different from most other fish. any individual hand can be explained--i didn't see any T high calldowns like the absolute super user, then again, in context it's definitely suspicious. hopefully we'll get some more hh.
01-08-2008 , 12:22 PM
i swear i have thought this about 3 or 4 different players on ub that i have played heads up. really, really skeptical about some of the action i have gotten on that site, some of the hands have just been outrageous

dunno if ive played this guy tho and i think ur evidence is pretty weak

Last edited by cts; 01-08-2008 at 12:27 PM.
01-08-2008 , 12:23 PM
this is like the salem witch trials. he looks like a fish, not a witch.

like i told you, for something so serious and with regard to the biggest scandal ever to hit our industry, you guys have done a great job trivializing this and presenting a really sloppy argument. both of you come off sounding like massive donkeys, so i suggest getting your **** together and presenting something to us that's valuable and coherent.
01-08-2008 , 12:24 PM
I think you HSNL guys have lost touch with the thought process of a fish, so allow me to help. If a random fish went on a 3 month heater and scored over $100k like you think, then the first thing imo would be to withdraw and close the account.

I don't know why you think he would feel like he has to play on and give it all back which I agree would be one result of him playing above himself for too long. Unless he is some sort of sicko degenerate like LuckyJimm then hitting and running the HS regs seems like a standard move here, along with shutting the account down and not playing a hand since.
01-08-2008 , 12:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dlpnyc21
1. the ak hand v. me when in the rr pot where he flopped a flush draw and crai (i don't think he would try this play if he nkew i had a pair b/c i would call him--he felt he was more likely to be able to get me to fold

flop flush draw in rr pot = shove, don't see how this indicates he can see your cards

2. the a4o hand v. boy where he calls the 4bet, then shoves when he flops a pair (is this standard for a4o?) what if boy had like JJ

he 3bet and called a 4bet preflop with a4 vs aj, indicates he can't see your cards

3. cold calling with 97o in position to the andrewhawit 3-bet...not in an of itself damning just when he does show up with hands in rr pots they are susipcious...

he's seeing 70% of flops, isn't he making calls like this all the time?

4. raising with 96ss pre then just chk calling ---which would be highly unsuaul given how he played other hands with top+fd when he happens to be against a top pair better kicker then bluffing when ace hits when he has a showdownable hand

you sure he was bluffing? no one ever folds to this guy. if he was a "smart superuser" he probably wouldn't try to make this guy fold k9.

5. floating flop with 64 when trambo was airing out with jt then just chking down when he missed (not betting once trambo actually connected--usual for a floater)...

he has a gutshot so he's not folding, seems like standard moron play to me. if he could see trambo's card he'd probably shove.

6. just calling with 68dd when he flushes up on river (knowing he can't fold this hand b/c it's too strong but also knowing he's beat)....

wtf? you don't get to see his hand when he folds. why would he call? its actually more suspicious than folding! (kinda, apparently, to people too dumb to understand how cheating works anyway, it seems)

7. the t8 hand v. whee chking two pair behind on river after trambo sets up with AA....cold calling with j9o then calling when shoved on the 253 board--he has to spew sometimes to get his image so he can get paid off later

if there were evidence in other hands then this would fit with the story, but as it stands its just more bad play.

8.raising with j6o, calling the flop CR then calling the turn shove v. trambo (obv. he can't push flop b/c he has to wait for non diamond to fall)...

uh, or maybe he just never folds a pair.

--those are just off the top of my head:

i mean, these aren't "damning evidence" but they are certainly suspicious and there are plenty of other scenarios (posted by scratchy1, etc.) that suggest he was different from most other fish. any individual hand can be explained--i didn't see any T high calldowns like the absolute super user, then again, in context it's definitely suspicious. hopefully we'll get some more hh.
comments inserted in the quote. this is not even close to convincing. you could make a much stronger case that i'm a superuser.
01-08-2008 , 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ike
comments inserted in the quote. this is not even close to convincing. you could make a much stronger case that i'm a superuser.
Gotta agree with Ike. I don't know if this guy is a superuser or not, and I'm not ruling it out, but these hand examples are 100% standard for a fish.

I actually laughed at the 1st two.
01-08-2008 , 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KRANTZ
this is like the salem witch trials. he looks like a fish, not a witch.

like i told you, for something so serious and with regard to the biggest scandal ever to hit our industry, you guys have done a great job trivializing this and presenting a really sloppy argument. both of you come off sounding like massive donkeys, so i suggest getting your **** together and presenting something to us that's valuable and coherent.
qft

its really bad for poker for it to seem like people in the know take seriously the idea that there might be superusers behind every corner. it happened on AP but as far as i know thats the only time its happened and nothing indicates it is likely to happen again. the AP thing was an inside job by people so stupid they risked, and lost, the integrity of their multimillion dollar company for less than a quarter mill in ill gotten gains.
01-08-2008 , 01:01 PM
im with ike and krantz on this one.
01-08-2008 , 01:03 PM
and i kinda want to delete this thread.
01-08-2008 , 01:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fsuplayer
and i kinda want to delete this thread.
i strongly encourage you to do so
01-08-2008 , 01:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KRANTZ
this is like the salem witch trials. he looks like a fish, not a witch.

like i told you, for something so serious and with regard to the biggest scandal ever to hit our industry, you guys have done a great job trivializing this and presenting a really sloppy argument. both of you come off sounding like massive donkeys, so i suggest getting your **** together and presenting something to us that's valuable and coherent.
the point of our thread was not to convince anyone. as trambo stated in the OP, both trambo and myself are convinced, but we were NOT trying to convince others, we were trying to get others to come through with data. we presented something like 15 hands, we have 2300 hands of very suspicious play. we wanted to post because we wanted to see if anyone else had noticed any suspicious play (or had more hh). we weren't presenting an argument, what we posted was more along the lines of:
1. we noticed some highly unusual play as well as highly unusual winrate, timing of play stoppage, having an account closed (or whatever, deleted, etc.).
2. we wanted to see if others had noticed this as well.

Obviously any individual hand (including many of the superuser hands from the AP) could look "explainable" in an individual sense. it wasn't until more hh were uncovered (thousands of hands), and a true win rate was revealed that people at AP started to take notice. Trambo posted this late last night after we were discussing it. I'm sure he can respond, but thankfully, anyone who has played on ub has more or less agreed with us (jmix, scratchy1, whee, even cts has suspicions v. others HU) while the people who haven't played v. this particular player have less experience on how he absolutely murdered the winningest players on the site for 8k hands for 60ptbb/100.

It's clear that people think trambo and me are donkeys for posting this, and there is no way our hh or the other surrounding circumstantial evidence suggests anything was amiss, but trambo posted to get others to come forward with hh or experiences playing him. That's all. Neither trambo nor myself has ever suspected any foul play in any other situation (although trambo was dusted by the super user on AP and eventually received his $ back), nor do I care all that much about the 28k, but he won a lot of $ from a lot of 2p2ers, 57k off trambo, 28k off me, 25k off whee, 25k off zeebo, etc. etc. And only had one losing session. Kind of interesting, obviously not "proof" (we never claimed to have "proof") we just wanted to see if others had similar experiences v. this player. Thanks to all the ub players who posted hh/experiences on this thread (mynameisgreg, jimx, scratchy1), your posts obviously hold the most credibility.

Thanks,
dlpnyc21
01-08-2008 , 01:07 PM
I think thread should be deleted. Collect hands and discuss privately and then present it if you have a rock solid case.

This kind of thread is bad for the game and only should be posted if it's extremely likely to be true.
01-08-2008 , 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KRANTZ
this is like the salem witch trials. he looks like a fish, not a witch.

like i told you, for something so serious and with regard to the biggest scandal ever to hit our industry, you guys have done a great job trivializing this and presenting a really sloppy argument. both of you come off sounding like massive donkeys, so i suggest getting your **** together and presenting something to us that's valuable and coherent.
Those witch trials might be viewed more favorably by history, if a witch actually started popping up in people's houses from time to time. It's not quite as outlandish once cheating and a super user account have happend and been proven even once.

I don't think the burden is on guys like trambo and dlpnyc to have a fully proven case ready to present, before any discussion is merited, as would be if they were making some sort of formal legal presentation...what do you expect in this sort of medium? What are people supposed to do when they suspect something, if they don't get together and talk about it and collect evidence together? Unless they have some sort of inside connections or happen upon some insider proof, what else but to get together and compare notes? Even if you think it's total BS, it seems pretty harmless...not too different from people who mistakenly clamored about bots raiding Party Poker SnGs, cracked RnGs, etc., but it would suck to discourage discussion about it at least...after all that is how every cheat, including the AP one, gets caught. And even if it's not a cheater, it's still pretty interesting to discuss, like DERB's style of play, etc.
01-08-2008 , 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fsuplayer
and i kinda want to delete this thread.
just do it
01-08-2008 , 01:11 PM
ike,

i understand you dont agree, and i think you are smart and i generally agree with you lots. but it is kind of tilting me that your whole arguement that there was no foul play involved is LOOK AT THESE HANDS AND HOW BAD HE IS! and posting in the thread like 7 times without even getting that dlp/trambo clearly were claiming it was possible this guy could see hole cards.

so if i were cheating you and had these capabilities all i had to do was play like a donkey a bit and spew off some buyins? no problem! i would be printing money still! and yet you would never be suspicious because WOAH I 4 BET ALL IN WITH J9 INTO YOUR ACES THAT ONE TIME! what a donkey! do you see how silly this is?

If you give any one of the smarter people I know from 2+2 this capability, they would be able to obviously decimate all games and pretty much 100% avoid any sort of detection. AJ green and company obviously went about it horribly. This guy, assuming foul play, could have fallen somewhere in between.

I agree a lot more information needs to come out and there should be stronger evidence, but imo this type of thing needs to be discussed. Granted it could have been under the topic of 'anyone remember particularly bizarre play vs nionio?' and then had a discussion. but to throw all of their concerns out the window and not give them consideration is foolish.

also, the AP thing was ~800k, not less than a quarter mil i believe, and in my personal opinion was likely larger than that figure.
01-08-2008 , 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jman28
I think thread should be deleted. Collect hands and discuss privately and then present it if you have a rock solid case.

This kind of thread is bad for the game and only should be posted if it's extremely likely to be true.
can you please wait until more people bring forth hh? so far the only people who have actually PLAYED v. nionio have brought forth very suspicious play. or at least wait for trambo to respond, he has many more hh's to present.
01-08-2008 , 01:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snagglepuss
ike,

i understand you dont agree, and i think you are smart and i generally agree with you lots. but it is kind of tilting me that your whole arguement that there was no foul play involved is LOOK AT THESE HANDS AND HOW BAD HE IS! and posting in the thread like 7 times without even getting that dlp/trambo clearly were claiming it was possible this guy could see hole cards.

so if i were cheating you and had these capabilities all i had to do was play like a donkey a bit and spew off some buyins? no problem! i would be printing money still! and yet you would never be suspicious because WOAH I 4 BET ALL IN WITH J9 INTO YOUR ACES THAT ONE TIME! what a donkey! do you see how silly this is?

If you give any one of the smarter people I know from 2+2 this capability, they would be able to obviously decimate all games and pretty much 100% avoid any sort of detection. AJ green and company obviously went about it horribly. This guy, assuming foul play, could have fallen somewhere in between.

I agree a lot more information needs to come out and there should be stronger evidence, but imo this type of thing needs to be discussed. Granted it could have been under the topic of 'anyone remember particularly bizarre play vs nionio?' and then had a discussion. but to throw all of their concerns out the window and not give them consideration is foolish.

also, the AP thing was ~800k, not less than a quarter mil i believe, and in my personal opinion was likely larger than that figure.
i agree ike is a great poster (and normally i would have never called him out in the nvg thread the other day, but his comment about live play i thought was overly broad and that's a sore spot for me), but his argument here is simply: "these 15 hands don't show anything." To me, trambo, myself, jimx, scratchy1, and whee (people who have actually PLAYED on ub during this time v. nionio) all have a LOT of doubts about this user. please let people with more data come forth, rather than closing this thread.
01-08-2008 , 01:26 PM
exactly, multiple people who have played with him are the ones having doubt, and as evidenced by some of these HH the guy wasn't the world's greatest player and yet goes to win 60ptbb/100 over 8k+ hands with only one losing session and disappears? along with the other stuff i am surprised so many of you are not at least a bit suspicious enough to see where this could lead, more info, and more opinions of those who played against him?
01-08-2008 , 01:30 PM
waiting for some fish to post a thread about this guy "bldswttrs" who used to rock him every hand in unthinkable ways and never thought about it being a superuser until now.
01-08-2008 , 01:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snagglepuss
exactly, multiple people who have played with him are the ones having doubt, and as evidenced by some of these HH the guy wasn't the world's greatest player and yet goes to win 60ptbb/100 over 8k+ hands with only one losing session and disappears? along with the other stuff i am surprised so many of you are not at least a bit suspicious enough to see where this could lead, more info, and more opinions of those who played against him?
someone who sucks and plays every hand should be MORE likely than a good player to win at that rate over that sample, DUCY? absent any evidence besides his winrate this thread is nonsense conspiracy-mongering.
01-08-2008 , 01:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snagglepuss
ike,

i understand you dont agree, and i think you are smart and i generally agree with you lots. but it is kind of tilting me that your whole arguement that there was no foul play involved is LOOK AT THESE HANDS AND HOW BAD HE IS! and posting in the thread like 7 times without even getting that dlp/trambo clearly were claiming it was possible this guy could see hole cards.

so if i were cheating you and had these capabilities all i had to do was play like a donkey a bit and spew off some buyins? no problem! i would be printing money still! and yet you would never be suspicious because WOAH I 4 BET ALL IN WITH J9 INTO YOUR ACES THAT ONE TIME! what a donkey! do you see how silly this is?

If you give any one of the smarter people I know from 2+2 this capability, they would be able to obviously decimate all games and pretty much 100% avoid any sort of detection. AJ green and company obviously went about it horribly. This guy, assuming foul play, could have fallen somewhere in between.

I agree a lot more information needs to come out and there should be stronger evidence, but imo this type of thing needs to be discussed. Granted it could have been under the topic of 'anyone remember particularly bizarre play vs nionio?' and then had a discussion. but to throw all of their concerns out the window and not give them consideration is foolish.

also, the AP thing was ~800k, not less than a quarter mil i believe, and in my personal opinion was likely larger than that figure.
my point is not "look at the hands and how bad he is." its "look at the hands and how they show no evidence at all that he can see his opponent's holecards." i wasn't sure if they were claiming he could see hole cards or could see the cards that hadn't been dealt yet or maybe something else because they didn't say so specifically and because i couldn't fathom how the hands they posted would lead them to conclude he could see their hole cards.
01-08-2008 , 01:36 PM
Again, sorry for the lack of structure in my post. I just kinda sloppily put it together and didnt take enough time to organize it well. When i get home on my computer ill put all of my suspcious hand histories together and put them into a post and leave out all of the somewhat standard looking hands. I put them all in there to try not to create a biased opinion, which clearly was a terrible idea. I should've just put only the damning hands in the post. I was just trying to show how i think he was a smarter cheat (not that you'd have to be smart at all, just not a complete idiot like Scott tom).

And ike, wow man you gotta settle down. Note the title, SUSPECTED superuser on UB. Not confirmed superuser, suspected. Of course not only do we not have any concrete, damning evidence but i am well aware of the support at UB and i know that even if we did have concrete evidence that there was a cheater, UB would most likely do nothing about it. Thats literally how bad they are. Me and gaucho posted this here because we wanted to get others opinoin on this and see if they would release other hand histories. To be honest though, in my mind im still convinced that he was cheating and I think gaucho feels the same way. Theres no need to jump down our throats like you did, even if he wasnt cheating. How do you think the original AP scandal started? If you look at the original thread it starts out with tons of people calling the op an idiot and claiming that there is no way a superuser account exists. All im saying is you have to keep a somewhat open mind

And to snagglepuss, he was up 185k in my database which is only over 2300 hands. Mypokerintel says he logged over 8k hands on UB before disabling his account (yes, you would have to email UB specifically and ask them to do so, it will not just close on its own). My guess is hes up 500k at bare minimum but im waiting for a response from MPI to see if they'll tell me his monetary stats.

Im sorry if I caused such a commotion. I really didnt mean to work everyone up and this is certainly nothing at all like the "salem witch hunt". I love how Ive accused ONE person throughout my entire career of online poker and yet me and gaucho are labeled as if we're just looking for controversy. Thats absolutely absurd. If i didnt wholeheartedly believe there was a good chance that foul play was going on, i wouldve never posted it.
01-08-2008 , 01:38 PM
fsuplayer:
I have been talking this over with ike on IM. Since the only people who have played with nionio have a LOT of suspicions, and are respected 2p2ers, if you delete this please post something to this effect in it's place? Perhaps that would be a decent compromise. Thank you,


1. nionio won at an absurd rate for 8k hands then disappeared around the same time as the AP scandal broke.

-we don't have any hard evidence obviously, just circumstantial evidence (winrate, stats, etc.)

If anyone else has hh or has played with him, please post here.
01-08-2008 , 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by trambopoline
Again, sorry for the lack of structure in my post. I just kinda sloppily put it together and didnt take enough time to organize it well. When i get home on my computer ill put all of my suspcious hand histories together and put them into a post and leave out all of the somewhat standard looking hands. I put them all in there to try not to create a biased opinion, which clearly was a terrible idea. I should've just put only the damning hands in the post. I was just trying to show how i think he was a smarter cheat (not that you'd have to be smart at all, just not a complete idiot like Scott tom).

And ike, wow man you gotta settle down. Note the title, SUSPECTED superuser on UB. Not confirmed superuser, suspected. Of course not only do we not have any concrete, damning evidence but i am well aware of the support at UB and i know that even if we did have concrete evidence that there was a cheater, UB would most likely do nothing about it. Thats literally how bad they are. Me and gaucho posted this here because we wanted to get others opinoin on this and see if they would release other hand histories. To be honest though, in my mind im still convinced that he was cheating and I think gaucho feels the same way. Theres no need to jump down our throats like you did, even if he wasnt cheating. How do you think the original AP scandal started? If you look at the original thread it starts out with tons of people calling the op an idiot and claiming that there is no way a superuser account exists. All im saying is you have to keep a somewhat open mind

And to snagglepuss, he was up 185k in my database which is only over 2300 hands. Mypokerintel says he logged over 8k hands on UB before disabling his account (yes, you would have to email UB specifically and ask them to do so, it will not just close on its own). My guess is hes up 500k at bare minimum but im waiting for a response from MPI to see if they'll tell me his monetary stats.

Im sorry if I caused such a commotion. I really didnt mean to work everyone up and this is certainly nothing at all like the "salem witch hunt". I love how Ive accused ONE person throughout my entire career of online poker and yet me and gaucho are labeled as if we're just looking for controversy. Thats absolutely absurd. If i didnt wholeheartedly believe there was a good chance that foul play was going on, i wouldve never posted it.
to be fair to trambo, it was MY idea to post a broad picture of a super user,
in other words, to present him making HORRIBLE plays if he could see our cards.

However, my logic was this: we want to present a picture of someone we thought was a superuser who did not play as dumb as the AP superuers (winning only 60ptbb/100 instead of 500bb/100).

I specifically wanted to post hands where he made "ridiculous" or "horrible" plays to show that he could MAKE those plays and STILL be a larger winner. Do you guys see that?

That actually him making those plays and still managing to be a massive winner is even HARDER to do? That's the idea.

Trambo, sorry about asking you to post hands nionio lost, that was a bad idea on my part.

      
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