Party Poker $5,000 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (SB): $4800.00
fennburger (BB): $7543.98
Time2BustYou (UTG): $8927.52
Arzzt (CO): $5095.00
P0KERBOT123 (BTN): $4975.00

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with A A
1 fold, Arzzt raises to $175, 1 fold, Hero raises to $600, 1 fold, Arzzt calls $425

Flop: ($1250.00) T 9 J (2 players)

your line ? Arzzt is a winning TAG regular who sometimes goes overboard with preflop 4-bets.

bet/call.

Yep, bet/call seems right here. Hell shove many many draws over your cbet here

even then i think it might be quite suicidal if we calc a range

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 42.991 % 41.321 % 3.340 % 55.339 % AcAd
Player 2: 57.009 % 55.339 % 3.340 % 41.321 % 99+,AQ,KQ,KJs,QJs,QTs,AJ,AJs


If hero bets 900 and villain shoves, the pot will be $6350 and hero has to call $3300, so he only needs a bit over 33% equity. Even if he assign him the above range, which is not incredibly loose, bet/call si the right play

yep, vv standard. And his range is probably a little bigger than this.

u need to include some other hands like J,10 and 10,9. I see that bet calling is +EV but its going to be close. I don't see another way to play this apart from CRAI but that probably isnt as good as bet/call.

Yes, I check-raised all in, which doesn't change much from the bet/call line. It might fold QJs (good), AQ (slightly bad) etc..

The problem I have is either I win 1200 or I lose 3600 more, and the range imbalance is not that much in my favor as the flop hits his raise/call reraise range pretty well.

Digging into pokertracker I found the following hands where he raised as a steal and called a reraise : AQs, ATs, A9, A7s, JJ, TT, T9s (2x), 86s; 76s

From this range, let's assume I win 1200 against ATs, A9, A7s, 86s, 76s and go all in against AQs, JJ, TT, T9s (2x). There are 5 hands in each category, he will fold 50% of times on the flop. The rest of the time I have 26% equity, which means I get 2450 out of the 9600 pot, losing 2350 more.

So against this range, playing for stacks is actually worse than check-folding !

very interesting analysis alix.

you may have just just 'ran bad' in this spot though. I think it depends on how you play yourself because if your a nit then i dont think bet/calling is very good because you are crushed by his shoving range. If your a TAG/LAG then bet calling is obv better but i think unless your 30/25 its going to be close. Even if your spot is mildly -EV though it may be worth getting it in for all the other times he shoves pair + draws vs your set or K,Q.

i need to move to canada.

Lol?

Its good that it folds out hands you beat? wtf?

It is good if he would fold QJ but- lol - never in a million years this is gonna happen. Omg.

i have not opened a strategy post in 6 months and then this is it. lol.

I agree that me finding a rationale for check-folding aces in a reraised pot in a 25/50 game is somewhat entertaining. However, it would be nice if the lol posters could gather their smarts to contribute some analysis -- or move their ass to Canada and sit in the game, always a change of scenery.

Up to now we have the following unattractive options from the flop onwards :
check-fold : ev = 0.00
go with the hand (under some assumptions) : ev = 1/2(1200 - (2350-600)) = -275.00

I don't like the idea of losing a couple hundred for meta-game reasons.

Ya. But under different assumptions we have 3/4*(3400-3000)=300.

Here's some analysis: 10 shown down hands in apparently similar spots do not form his entire range. To think otherwise is certainly "somewhat entertaining".

Coldi provided all the other analysis you need.