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[NL2k] River decision [NL2k] River decision

08-26-2011 , 09:05 PM
Villain is very active, he is playing 27/25/5.6/30 3bet 11 over 550 hands.

So far no specific reads on him.

I guess my line is fine to the river. Villain's range is pretty much PP heavy since he is coldcalling only 2% pre and I dont expect him to float on the flop 3ways. Going to the river he represents mainly 66,44 or 77 and could turn mid PP into a bluff.
He should not have too much information about my tendencies and he sees me probably like 25/21/2/30.

Is this a snapfold or a considerable call? I dont know if he sees a lot of FE in his shove.


No-Limit Hold'em, $20.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

SB ($1980)
BB ($3953)
Hero (UTG) ($2000)
MP ($5197)
Button ($2408)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, K
Hero bets $60, MP calls $60, 2 folds, BB calls $40

Flop: ($190) 6, 6, 4 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $102, MP calls $102, 1 fold

Turn: ($394) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $228, MP calls $228

River: ($850) A (2 players)
Hero bets $612, MP raises $4807 (All-In)

Total pot: $2074
08-27-2011 , 12:02 AM
I don't like the river bet, I might c/c this.
08-27-2011 , 02:04 AM
def agree... awful size too

Snap fold, villain has to see a lot of flushes in your range.
08-27-2011 , 02:14 AM
have you played with this guy before at all? or are you only sitting on 500 hands with him?

gross river. imo the flush doesn't matter. does he think you're likely to double barrel a big ace on 3rd and 4th street? if so it makes the river scream like value.

if he's real aggro would he have raised 77 on that flop against your c-bet with BB still in? it would seem odd to me to just flat 77, giving BB 4:1 when he flops dream for his 77, and there are about a zillion cards he doesn't want to see come out of there 3 handed.

one of my problems is i hate narrowing a guy down to literally 2 hands, and then giving them credit for it on top of it. i don't know. for me it comes down to would he bet all of his bluffs here like this? he has to be bluffing 2/3 times to break even here. AQ seems absurd, so weigh: did you get 2 outted vs. would he bet all of his bluffs here vs. does he view you as likely double barreling AK on 3 and 4th.

I'd probably call just because i'm horribly curious if I got 2 outted.
08-27-2011 , 06:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Imaginary F(r)iend
I don't like the river bet, I might c/c this.
Imo we can never c/c this river profitably, because he checks all the hands back, that we beat.

bet>c/f>>>c/c

And why do you guys think is the bet sizing awful? I am betting bigger in these spots so villain will not be induced to spazz. Do you bet less or more and why?

I played with this villain the first time, and I had approximately 500 hands when this spot came up.

@hetero-flush: yea, the possible flush is pretty irrelevant and I dont think that he raises 77 on the flop. The problem with this hand is it's really villain-specific. I dunno if u guys play on ongame but if it's helpful I can post villain's screenname.
08-27-2011 , 12:47 PM
Based on your betting, if I were the villain, I would put you on:
1. two spades
2. a big pocket (QQ, KK, AA)
3. A6 suited
(4. 55 though less likely)

Your overplaying Ax is a possibility, but it is more or less a standard check-call situation on the river with it. Therefore, I don't think he would put you on Ax. A cold bluff on your part is possible but unlikely given your bet sizing on all streets.

Since you have already committed about half of your stack, the fold equity is not good if you have A6 or AA. So, it is a tough situation for the villain to bluff even if he suspects you have either QQ or KK.

Therefore, I would lean toward the villain having a real hand on the river. Since you only have a bluff catcher, fold.

I don't think the river bet is necessarily bad "given the turn bet." Checking on the river would show so much weakness that it can invite a decent bluff, which is not an easy call for KK by any means.

However, I do not like the turn bet. The villain could have 55 or Ax of spade and decided to float on the flop. It is also possible that he has a 6. You need to find out more info about the villain's hand on the turn in my opinion, and the turn bet did not achieve that. I think a pot size bet would have reaped more info so that you know a little better what to do on the river.

My opinion....
08-27-2011 , 02:50 PM
67,65,77,44,A6s are all very possible here for villain + you can realistically have a huge hand + you made a committed bet on the river and he still shoves, leads me to believe he has the hand.

It would be sick if he turned 99 into a bluff here thinking the A of spades is a big scare card, but the ace helps your range pretty often considering you would prob be betting AQ AJ and AK on the flop and turn, so I think he going nuts with a mid pair is less likely (plus he might have re raised with 99+ preflop if he is aggressive as you say)
08-28-2011 , 08:58 PM
Yah, you don't have specific reads on this vill.
Having said that, you can't put him on what would be a sick f***ing river bluff.

Smells like 67sootedsss/77??
08-28-2011 , 11:25 PM
seems like a standard b/f......i mean u got 1k back after he jams, and why would he turn a bluffcatcher into a bluff when your repping a super strong range? Think I might size the river a little smaller but definitely b/f > c/c river like u siad
08-29-2011 , 09:12 AM
I dont like betting this river with the intention of folding, given positions and how the board ran out it seems pretty bad, u never get called by worse. Villain will either fold or ship most of the time imo.

So I def prefer checking. Whether to c/f or c/c mehh.
08-29-2011 , 01:32 PM
I personally believe that bet-fold is better than check-fold on the river considering the board texture and the prior actions. However, while having not narrowed down the range of the villain's hand sufficiently on the turn, I would bet a bit less on the river like about $400 which is safer and still looks like a thin value bet with a monster given the board unless there is a reason to believe the villain is a senseless maniac.
08-29-2011 , 02:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oddfish0
a thin value bet with a monster.
do explain

and it's a c/f for me.
08-29-2011 , 03:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tultfill
do explain

and it's a c/f for me.
Maybe I shouldn't have said "thin". $400 should be tempting for the villain with 88 or 99, for example. For $400, if the villain has two spades, he could come over the top. Etc.... From that bet, the villain should be able to recognize the possibility of the hero holding a monster and therefore be discouraged from making a bluff. My opinion, hence, is that $400 is enough to hold off a bluff while checking can reveal weakness of the hero's hand.
08-29-2011 , 03:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oddfish0
Maybe I shouldn't have said "thin". $400 should be tempting for the villain with 88 or 99, for example. For $400, if the villain has two spades, he could come over the top. Etc.... From that bet, the villain should be able to recognize the possibility of the hero holding a monster and therefore be discouraged from making a bluff. My opinion, hence, is that $400 is enough to hold off a bluff while checking can reveal weakness of the hero's hand.
lol what, if u bluffed that river u'd bet big to fold out medium pockets pairs, betting small might just induce more moves from our opponent and given the plan is to bet/fold it's clearly not a good idea
08-29-2011 , 03:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by beHypE
lol what, if u bluffed that river u'd bet big to fold out medium pockets pairs, betting small might just induce more moves from our opponent and given the plan is to bet/fold it's clearly not a good idea
$400 is not a small bet. It is about half of the pot.

The river situation is, the hero has failed to extract enough info to make a river bet more optimally. The range of the villain's hand is wide. To make the matter worse, the villain highly likely will not fold a 6 or two spades. The only hands the hero can bluff out, in my opinion, are the ones he can beat with KK.

In this scenario, his best option on the river is not to bluff but to hold off a bluff for the pot of slightly over $800 (with a chance that he gets paid off when the villain holds inferior pocket pairs). Therefore, it is a matter of figuring out a proper bet size.
08-29-2011 , 04:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oddfish0
$400 is not a small bet. It is about half of the pot.

The river situation is, the hero has failed to extract enough info to make a river bet more optimally. The range of the villain's hand is wide. To make the matter worse, the villain highly likely will not fold a 6 or two spades. The only hands the hero can bluff out, in my opinion, are the ones he can beat with KK.

In this scenario, his best option on the river is not to bluff but to hold off a bluff for the pot of slightly over $800 (with a chance that he gets paid off when the villain holds inferior pocket pairs). Therefore, it is a matter of figuring out a proper bet size.
We're not trying to bluff those hands out, i'm just saying that if we had say 89o, we'd definitely bluff that river and we wouldn't choose a sizing in the 1/2PSB range, more like 2/3-3/4. Therefore we need to stay balanced and bet our value hands the same amount. We can't just decide to bluff for 700$, to overbet jam AA and to bet 400 with KK.

Betting that little just looks exactly like what we are trying to accomplish, i.e. getting thin value against a vague range we're not really sure to be ahead of. He can basically shove all his midpairs as a bluff, and call with anything that beats us.

I'm not saying b/f is better than c/f though, i'm just pretty sure c/f~b/f 700 >>>>> b/f 400.
08-29-2011 , 04:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by beHypE
We're not trying to bluff those hands out, i'm just saying that if we had say 89o, we'd definitely bluff that river and we wouldn't choose a sizing in the 1/2PSB range, more like 2/3-3/4. Therefore we need to stay balanced and bet our value hands the same amount. We can't just decide to bluff for 700$, to overbet jam AA and to bet 400 with KK.

Betting that little just looks exactly like what we are trying to accomplish, i.e. getting thin value against a vague range we're not really sure to be ahead of. He can basically shove all his midpairs as a bluff, and call with anything that beats us.

I'm not saying b/f is better than c/f though, i'm just pretty sure c/f~b/f 700 >>>>> b/f 400.
I see your point more clearly. I respect that in general though I still stick to $400 in the given situation.
08-29-2011 , 07:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oddfish0
$400 is not a small bet. It is about half of the pot.

The range of the villain's hand is wide.
This is not true imo. Villain is not playin a loose 32/24 style, he is playing 27/25 with a 3bet of 11 which means that he is coldcalling less pre and is 3betting A LOT of his sc's and weak Ax.

Assuming that we have a difficult decision wether to c/f or b/f and how much if b/f. And I go with behype's post. We should be balanced in this spot. I need a consistent betsize for balancing.

      
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