What do you guys think his c/r-ing range is on the river? History: we've been playing a good amt of HU and shorthanded over the past cpl of weeks, he has not c/red the river very often, once when he did and I looked him up he had a big hand. He also checkraises many, many flops.

I do not think this is a spot where the only reason to bet is if I'm calling a c/r. Does he expect me to fold AK? Is that relevant?

Full Tilt Poker $500/$1000 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Patrik Antonius (BB): $290314.00
pr1nnyraid (BTN/SB): $107677.00

Edit: I have 8d3d

Pre Flop:
pr1nnyraid raises to $3000, Patrik Antonius calls $2000

Flop: ($6000.00) 8 2 5 (2 players)
Patrik Antonius checks, pr1nnyraid bets $4000, Patrik Antonius calls $4000

Turn: ($14000.00) 7 (2 players)
Patrik Antonius checks, pr1nnyraid checks

River: ($14000.00) K (2 players)
Patrik Antonius checks, pr1nnyraid bets $9400, Patrik Antonius raises to $36000

is his flop CR frequency lower on dryer boards? have you adjusted your cbet frequency noticeably?

edit: his river CR size is sexy as hell.

he checkraises like whoa, with all sorts of things, and top pair very often. haven't been using HUD but it's really high on all sorts of boards, and b/c of that i am not c-betting as often.

I'd check the flop. As for river, I'd fold.

i think betting this flop with 83 brings you in alot of tough spots vs this guy, lots of ****ty turns and i heard hes insanly aggro. and doesnt he expect you to bet flop with alot of top pair + hands cos he cr's so much? you can make some pretty thin valueraises/bets on alot of turn and rivers then right?

also dont you check behind AK alot here as he cr's alot. so when you bet river, i think it seems like a thin vbet to him, and as he hasnt been out of line much with his rvr check raises im more inclined to look him up.

im not on your level of thinking here so im just gonna shut up now lol.

When he checks this river ... how often does Patrick think you are betting?

Also, can you say anything about your previous river bet sizes in shown down pots?

you said he checkraises with all sorts of things, but what about his c/c line on the flop? any pattern there? i guess he floats with overcards sometimes or with pair of 5s or 2s and small pockets.

so when you check behind the turn he would put you on a semi good hand or absolute air, right? the only good hands you could have is kings up. so he would expect you to valuebet thin or bluff the king. i think it depends on how this is balanced.
could he make a thin value c/r with something like KQ when he puts you on the eight?
i think he would never expect you to fold AK here since his c/c range on the flop must be somewhat weak so he can balance his flop checkraises...

i don't know how often you'd bluff the king here, hence i can't say if he would call with a hand like 44 or realize it's no good.



btw. why don't you bet the turn? i can't think of a reason why it wouldn't be a good play. since he checksraises so much hands i would assume he also does so with a gutter like 96 or something like 87 or a set. i think he can't checkraise much turns, right?
or are you just hoping he'd bluff into your backdoor flush?

I doubt he ever expects you to fold AK, but then again you probably never have much K's since that is probably a part of your range you are more inclined to check behind on the flop if you start to c-bet less flops.

Oh, depends if he ever c/r here for value with 8x/99+, because if thats the case I like a fold. But as played I think its very close to say anything good about the hand since I think its a very close decision and im more inclined to call.

And the check on the turn is fine, if you ever want to check behind the turn with a made hand on a wet board to balance then this is a great hand to do it.

yeah his river cr here is pretty sick

He's prolly c/r flop enough to lower your cbet fq to where you only bet decent holdings on the flop. That means he can take this line on a dry flop with sets/top 2 or draws to nuts profitably (by getting you to value bet into him).

I don't think there's enough info to call profitably given the low river c/r fq and how he's shifted your betting patterns. However, you're ahead of any reasonable range like 2.5:1

If you take out preflop 3bet ranges (standard big pairs and suited connectors?) and flop chk/call ranges we'd have a better idea. Assuming PA is totally standard (lol?) I don't think an 8+ is in his range, since he'd likely be betting or raising that by the turn.

12.4k turn, check behind non diamond 8 or 3 river

as played i think you have to call, looks a lot like you have bare K or air and he feels its a good spot to bluff.

Is this value bet too thin on the river? As in it induces c/r bluffs?

I'd call.

I don't play quite this high (5/10 - 25/50). But I've seen him play quite a bit. it seems as though his range is ridiculously HUGE. He seems to be fearless with the river check raise.. Has he been caught bluffing a bunch? If so -- i'd lean it towards a very strong hand. You'd probably have to weight it slightly toward strong hands.... If he hasn't been caught bluffing much, I might consider making the hero call.


As far as his range, I remember the hand he played on FTP cash game vs sbrugby -- but the reason that play works is he does not play in that manner often so i'll discount the sets.

But ultimately his range is huge right?

At the top of his range floating with 69/64/77(maybe), any 2 pair, AK, KQ, and then on the on the bluffing side of his rang 76, T9, TJ, QJ, AT, etc

you dont want to cbet toppair + backdoors if PA c/raises ALOT? dont get that

I think that some players like durrr would shove on that river but probably depends of the % of times and with what hand ranges PA will fold/call in that spot and what % of time he c/r you with air when you representing a top pair.

looks like ur pretty much always calling any river c/r if u call here, not much for him to be bluffing with, good spot to c/r river for value since ur prob not hero calling a lead that often here (unless he floats ridic wide OOP) and you'll bluff the king a decent amount.

Bet the turn, check most rivers makes sense to me given board/villain.

As played fold.

Putting together the fact that he c/r's a lot of flops, but chose not to this time, combined with the fact he hasn't c/r'd rivers w/o the goods, leads me to believe that his river c/r range is flopped sets/2pr (poss. rivered)/64 (DGS played deceptively), and i guess a PO'd 76 who may actually think its good but thinks raising is > calling...

However, PA could use this against you and level you with this info b/c you have (im assuming) already adjusted your game to his frequent flop c/r's by checking behind flops, so i'm not quite sure how villain would interpret the flop cbet. Also, if you are in fact checking behind flops b/c of villain's high flop c/r %, should you sometimes/oftentimes/handstrength-dependent be checking most/some of your value range?

I also believe the turn should be a good 2nd barrel for you b/c you did in fact bet the flop so you're repping a strong hand, and the turn bringing a FD and completing a GS, you would presumably want to bet to protect against draws. However, i kinda like a check behind with the gained FD just for deception purposes when you do hit, which should work well vs a tricky villain

I agree that this isn't a spot where you should only be betting if you call a c/r, specifically b/c of the turn check (going back to why the turn was a 'good' [imo] 2 barrel card), as well as the K river being an obv great card to bluff at IP on the river, along with the fact that he has shown strong hands when he does c/r riv.

I'm not sure if he would expect you to fold AK, but I do think it is a relevant point, b/c of his c/r size mostly.

this is a super aggro heads up match, why the hell would folding even cross his mind here on the river with AK?

waht happened? did you call or fold and whatd he have?

if patrik c/rs often, i think this is a great flop to bet. while it will definitely put you in tough situations on turn cards, you definitely get more value from weak top pair hands like this one. additionally, if patrik notices you are not cbetting tpwk/2nd pair, your cbetting range becomes insanely polarized and he will actually be able to check raise your betting range MORE, not less.

that being said, the interesting thing about this river situation is that patrik knows that his 1 pair range works quite well as a bluff catcher vs you here, so he has no reason to ever raise with that range imo. however, he does have the A high missed gutters: A3,A4 and possibly other A highs in his river range that he might choose to bluff with.

his value range is pretty small of 9 combinations if u give him 1/3 of each of the flopped sets (to account for his high c/r freq) and all of K2s,K5s,K8s. tbh i think you will see these hands a fair amount because his river range DOES work better as a bluff catcher and when he does raise, you will likely see the small value part of his range. i highly doubt he expects you to fold AK, but if he seriously respects you over time, i see no reason why this couldnt be the case, and he could actually be trying to utilize a lot of FE trying to fold all 1 pair hands in your range. but i dont know that.

jfish,

I think he could have 77, 57, 87, maybe 46 and conceivably some good Kx hands here as well.

''if patrik c/rs often, i think this is a great flop to bet. while it will definitely put you in tough situations on turn cards, you definitely get more value from weak top pair hands like this one. additionally, if patrik notices you are not cbetting tpwk/2nd pair, your cbetting range becomes insanely polarized and he will actually be able to check raise your betting range MORE, not less.''

but its not bad in this situation to check behind. if we showdown our hand here, then we can use this info against him later on, by maybe floating him lighter, or more profitably induce a flop check raise with a weaker range right? i mean its not the end of the world right?

Could you explain the turn check. Doesn't antonius have a lot of pair + straight draw hands that he'll continue with that you'll crush? Espec since he likes to c/r TP on the flop, seems like a pretty clear value bet, since all that really beats you are slowplays, 77, 75, 46, and bigger TPs that he chose not to c/r and you beat 76, 56, 66, floats that turned a draw or a pair (A7,A6,79,Axdd), etc.