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Sorry if these are stupid questions... I don't play against thinking players.
Is he always 3-betting 66-88 preflop?
He c/rs Ax almost all of the time, in addition to any 9 or 55, right? How do you think he plays 67/78/68 on the flop?
Does he peel the flop with A-high ever on this board? K-high?
I think this is a fold. I can really only see two ways that this can be a bluff, and they're both big long shots, IMHO:
1) He didn't 3-bet pre with a KQ/KJ/KTish hand and decided to peel the flop.
2) He chose not to 3-bet pre with 22/33/44/66, and decided to turn them into bluffs on the river.
I hate your river bet, but I don't know what I'm talking about, and I'm biased by results.
Not stupid questions at all. This is a good analysis.
I don't know how he plays 66-88 preflop. I would guess that he is calling with them most of the time. He could peel with A high on flop, but I don't think he'd call with KQ no draw OOP.
I have a lot of trouble putting him on a hand here because he didn't raise the flop. I thought he would raise and 9, any flush draw, any gutter, and a lot of air. Because of the pace of the match, I could not see him slowplaying a big hand here ever. I really felt that he had a 5 or something like that on the flop.
On the river, my vb was definitely very thin. I didnt expect him to call many hands, but I didn't think he could have a 9 or a boat(unless he had 77). I thought an Ace was unlikely because he'd be more likely to bet the river with it than c/c, because of his image as a bluffer and my image as a semi-station. The flop was somewhat drawy, and the turn was somewhat of a scare card, so I thought he may see it as a good opportunity for me to bluff, repping the Ace.
theUsher and Urindanger were sweating me and right as I bet, I asked what they would do if he raises. Just then he shoves. I think that my hand looks like Ax or a bluff, and that makes it a very good spot for a c/r from him. I wondered if he could make a sick value c/r with TP, but he is 3betting most suited aces. Definitely ATs+, so I dont think he can value c/r an ace. I think 77 is his most likely non-bluff here, with 55 or 95s being next, as I could possibly see him slowplaying a boat on the flop. I dont think he'd risk it with just trips and with his image.