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Old 01-08-2007, 08:02 AM   #1
Phil Galfond
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Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

Playing Roland de Wolfe HU 3/6. Hes very tricky/aggro. He has c/r'd a lot of flops so his c/c here surprised me. I would expect him to c/r a 9 almost all the time.

The match has been like a high stakes RPS match because we keep realizing that each other keep adjusting to the others' play and then we readjust. He also likes to play weird mind games. For instance, I started the match cbetting 3k into 3600 on most flops. He did too. Part of the way in, I switched to 2400 and the next time he cbet, he switched to 2400 and kept cbetting that. One hand I 3bet him and bet 6600 on flop. Three hands later he 3bet me and bet 6600. It wasnt an accident. I'm not sure if that has any impact on your view of this hand.

Effective stacks 32k.

I raise 75o to $1800 in sb, he calls

Flop 9 5 9 ($3600)

He checks, I bet $2400, he calls

Turn A ($8400)

check, check

River 7 ($8400)

He checks, I bet $6600, he shoves (~20.5k to call)

Keep in mind that I have 3 pairs.

(At the time I didn't know, but I'm about 75% sure this was Patrik Antonius on Roland's acct.)
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Old 01-08-2007, 08:17 AM   #2
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

Assuming this is on FTP vs "Roland de Wolfe", I'd put a lot of money that it's not him on the account.
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Old 01-08-2007, 08:18 AM   #3
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

Quote:
Assuming this is on FTP vs "Roland de Wolfe", I'd put a lot of money that it's not him on the account.
I went into the game knowing that this was a good possibility. Whoever it was, my reads in the OP were based on that person.
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Old 01-08-2007, 08:23 AM   #4
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

I'd not call this, but then again I'd not bet river either.
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Old 01-08-2007, 08:32 AM   #5
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

Jman, am I wrong or did he take you for a decent clip?
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Old 01-08-2007, 08:38 AM   #6
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

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Jman, am I wrong or did he take you for a decent clip?
Not that much, no. I lost my ass at 1/2 and 2/4 though.
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Old 01-08-2007, 08:43 AM   #7
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

probably antonius no one gives him action at 3-6.
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Old 01-08-2007, 09:15 AM   #8
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

That's 100% Patrik. Earlier he was playing PLO 3 handed with Gus and Reese and before Gus got up to leave he said "Good night Patrik"
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Old 01-08-2007, 09:17 AM   #9
Phil Galfond
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

I usually don't post high level thinking stuff here. This is the most interesting hand I've ever posted on 2p2 and no one seems to want to talk about it.
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Old 01-08-2007, 09:19 AM   #10
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

Maybe because that riverbet is taking it one step too far?
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Old 01-08-2007, 09:26 AM   #11
Phil Galfond
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

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Maybe because that riverbet is taking it one step too far?
No. Saying that constitutes talking about the hand.

I disagree btw. I have 3 pairs!
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Old 01-08-2007, 09:54 AM   #12
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

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I usually don't post high level thinking stuff here. This is the most interesting hand I've ever posted on 2p2 and no one seems to want to talk about it.
I don't know if you should call or not but value betting this thinly against good players isn't a very good idea.
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Old 01-08-2007, 10:00 AM   #13
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

Quote:
Quote:
I usually don't post high level thinking stuff here. This is the most interesting hand I've ever posted on 2p2 and no one seems to want to talk about it.

I don't know if you should call or not but value betting this thinly against good players isn't a very good idea.
elaborate
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Old 01-08-2007, 10:03 AM   #14
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

Sorry if these are stupid questions... I don't play against thinking players.

Is he always 3-betting 66-88 preflop?

He c/rs Ax almost all of the time, in addition to any 9 or 55, right? How do you think he plays 67/78/68 on the flop?

Does he peel the flop with A-high ever on this board? K-high?

I think this is a fold. I can really only see two ways that this can be a bluff, and they're both big long shots, IMHO:

1) He didn't 3-bet pre with a KQ/KJ/KTish hand and decided to peel the flop.
2) He chose not to 3-bet pre with 22/33/44/66, and decided to turn them into bluffs on the river.

I hate your river bet, but I don't know what I'm talking about, and I'm biased by results.
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Old 01-08-2007, 10:07 AM   #15
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

Would you expect a good player at these limits to be capable of playing 86 this way?
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Old 01-08-2007, 10:09 AM   #16
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

I hate betting this river, what are you looking to get value from? I dont think he's calling with a 5. As played, i dont think I call this. But I mean I saw the hand so I am a little bit biased since I already know the results.

Not to mention this guy loves to check-raise all-in and knows your weak when you make a bet like that (you would have bet an A or trips on the turn), so that doesnt help your case for betting much.
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Old 01-08-2007, 10:12 AM   #17
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
I usually don't post high level thinking stuff here. This is the most interesting hand I've ever posted on 2p2 and no one seems to want to talk about it.
I don't know if you should call or not but value betting this thinly against good players isn't a very good idea.
elaborate
Because good players quickly realize you are value betting very thinly and check raise you AI.
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Old 01-08-2007, 10:17 AM   #18
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

aba,
What hands does he call the flop with that he would decide to bluff the river with?
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Old 01-08-2007, 10:19 AM   #19
Phil Galfond
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

Quote:
Sorry if these are stupid questions... I don't play against thinking players.

Is he always 3-betting 66-88 preflop?

He c/rs Ax almost all of the time, in addition to any 9 or 55, right? How do you think he plays 67/78/68 on the flop?

Does he peel the flop with A-high ever on this board? K-high?

I think this is a fold. I can really only see two ways that this can be a bluff, and they're both big long shots, IMHO:

1) He didn't 3-bet pre with a KQ/KJ/KTish hand and decided to peel the flop.
2) He chose not to 3-bet pre with 22/33/44/66, and decided to turn them into bluffs on the river.

I hate your river bet, but I don't know what I'm talking about, and I'm biased by results.
Not stupid questions at all. This is a good analysis.

I don't know how he plays 66-88 preflop. I would guess that he is calling with them most of the time. He could peel with A high on flop, but I don't think he'd call with KQ no draw OOP.

I have a lot of trouble putting him on a hand here because he didn't raise the flop. I thought he would raise and 9, any flush draw, any gutter, and a lot of air. Because of the pace of the match, I could not see him slowplaying a big hand here ever. I really felt that he had a 5 or something like that on the flop.

On the river, my vb was definitely very thin. I didnt expect him to call many hands, but I didn't think he could have a 9 or a boat(unless he had 77). I thought an Ace was unlikely because he'd be more likely to bet the river with it than c/c, because of his image as a bluffer and my image as a semi-station. The flop was somewhat drawy, and the turn was somewhat of a scare card, so I thought he may see it as a good opportunity for me to bluff, repping the Ace.

theUsher and Urindanger were sweating me and right as I bet, I asked what they would do if he raises. Just then he shoves. I think that my hand looks like Ax or a bluff, and that makes it a very good spot for a c/r from him. I wondered if he could make a sick value c/r with TP, but he is 3betting most suited aces. Definitely ATs+, so I dont think he can value c/r an ace. I think 77 is his most likely non-bluff here, with 55 or 95s being next, as I could possibly see him slowplaying a boat on the flop. I dont think he'd risk it with just trips and with his image.
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Old 01-08-2007, 10:20 AM   #20
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

Quote:
I hate betting this river, what are you looking to get value from? I dont think he's calling with a 5. As played, i dont think I call this. But I mean I saw the hand so I am a little bit biased since I already know the results.

Not to mention this guy loves to check-raise all-in and knows your weak when you make a bet like that (you would have bet an A or trips on the turn), so that doesnt help your case for betting much.
I wouldn't bet most aces on the turn. TY for not revealing results yet.
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Old 01-08-2007, 10:21 AM   #21
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

22-44, 5x, 66, 7xdd, XXdd
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Old 01-08-2007, 10:22 AM   #22
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

Quote:
aba,
What hands does he call the flop with that he would decide to bluff the river with?
Any draw, any overcards, any small pair. Basically anything he would peel that flop with which is a ton of hands.
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Old 01-08-2007, 10:36 AM   #23
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

Quote:

On the river, my vb was definitely very thin. I didnt expect him to call many hands, but I didn't think he could have a 9 or a boat(unless he had 77). I thought an Ace was unlikely because he'd be more likely to bet the river with it than c/c, because of his image as a bluffer and my image as a semi-station. The flop was somewhat drawy, and the turn was somewhat of a scare card, so I thought he may see it as a good opportunity for me to bluff, repping the Ace.

Yeah.. but then roughly the only hands you're getting value from are 22-44/56/45... 34 combos. Hands that beat you that pretty much always play this way (IMHO) are 68/77/88..23 combos. So, he only needs 11 combos out of Ax/95s/TT/99/55 for this to be bad value. Factor in the fact that you get c/red sometimes, and I think this is a bad bet.
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Old 01-08-2007, 10:40 AM   #24
Phil Galfond
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

Quote:
Quote:

On the river, my vb was definitely very thin. I didnt expect him to call many hands, but I didn't think he could have a 9 or a boat(unless he had 77). I thought an Ace was unlikely because he'd be more likely to bet the river with it than c/c, because of his image as a bluffer and my image as a semi-station. The flop was somewhat drawy, and the turn was somewhat of a scare card, so I thought he may see it as a good opportunity for me to bluff, repping the Ace.

Yeah.. but then roughly the only hands you're getting value from are 22-44/56/45... 34 combos. Hands that beat you that pretty much always play this way (IMHO) are 68/77/88..23 combos. So, he only needs 11 combos out of Ax/95s/TT/99/55 for this to be bad value. Factor in the fact that you get c/red sometimes, and I think this is a bad bet.
88 and 77 def play this way postflop, although that may 3bet pre. I think 86 raises flop.

However, he doesnt always call the combos I beat, so your point is definitely valid. You are missing some though. K5s, Q5s, 85s, maybe a couple other suited 5s.
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Old 01-08-2007, 10:55 AM   #25
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Re: Jman\'s River c/r Hand of the Week (300/600nl)

and maybe you stack him when he c/r bluffs, if you're planning on calling a c/r. although maybe you get stacked by a better hand in that case as well. and if you're folding to a c/r, maybe you get bluffed off the best hand. considering all factors, it seems to be way too thin. if you would have a very +EV call of a check/raise then I could see that creating the value you need to bet. But since calling the c/r is probably at best breakeven and at worst significantly -EV then it looks like getting to showdown has more value over making the super thin vb.
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