i agree with raising alittle more on the flop
but as played i fold the river unfortunately... unless i have some reason/history to think he is pulling off some super bluff, very unlikely tho imo

I agree with Mench where I think this is KK (or AT) more often than AA.

smells like AT.

results?

you cannot be serious

even so, people just dont play well. for some people a river c/r here wouldn't even enter their head.

i think this is a pretty standard fold. This is a valuebet with a worse hand like never, and i cant see him bluffing here cause he always has something with decent showdown value. He might have JJ or QQ sometimes but i doubt it, just fold.



Its a tough spot, but if you called a reraise with 99 for implied odds of hitting a set you got your spot, you cant fold now, time to push. This is why you dont call w/ 99 here pre-flop if you arent willing to felt in this spot.


So you say you can only call preflop +ev if youre going to make -ev calldowns/pushes(lol)? Sounds good

man HSNL is **** these days

luego, requin, dean, st, and gp are right.

7th!

fold.

and spino is the biggest troll ever.

I cant fold here, too many reasons why. AKss gets there, random Ace hands make aces and tens w/K, your hand doesn't look like nines full, etc, etc.

That said, some players, especially live players, will only bet $7K on this river with AA or KK, which brings us to a read dependent situation, but all things being equal I call here and expect to see a lesser hand about half the time.

edited to add: I raise more on the flop, probably make it $2400.

pushing here is v bad imo.

id consider folding, he really cant show up with many hands played this way that u beat. but id probably make a crying call in the end.

Geez, no non-moron is vbetting AK here guys. What r u gonna call with? Pocket Jacks?

why the hell would he bet 7K with like AsXs?

and why doesnt heros hand look like a boat?

i fold. he either has AK of spades or has you crushed.

Why are people advocating a bigger raise on the flop? OP's raise is over
3X the guys bet. This seems like hindsight advice. I just don't understand the benefits.

To OP. you are in a crappy situation. Without a dead on read and an extensive history I would fold this without a doubt. Especially since it is really deep stacked and it is a live game.

Unless this guy is on some super level of thinking where he knows you don't call a 3 bet pf with A10s, K10s, AA, KK and you will fold to a shove with a straight or a small full house, he is not bluffing. That's asking a lot.

Villain must be a genius card player or a complete donk in order for his play to be a bluff.

does this villain seem smart enough to understand how to play 650bb deep? I'm assuming not because his reraise amount is very small and unless he's doing it with a really wide range of hands (which is also terrible being oop and this deep) he's going to be very easy to play against this deep.

from his perspective, IF he were trying to bluff you it seems like he would be hoping that you fold JJ or QQ specifically, although to me it seems completely obvious that you'd check these on the turn and you'd probably check them on the flop. I'm also assuming that QJ is in your range and I suppose villain could try to get you to fold this, but that's less likely.

This hand seems to play exactly like KK from a pretty player, hoping you have a T that you can't get away from, and like AA from a bad player who doesn't realize how bad calling that turn bet is with stacks this deep.

Obviously a tough decision overall, but it's one of those situations where logic has to override how much you like your hand. Fold.

I can't believe some people are calling here.

Seems to me you need to bet/raise higher when very deep, so you kinda screwed yourself there 2 out of three bets if that is the case. If you pot the flop and turn, you may not have this decision, but now that you do, it looks like it's a fold.

is this whole thread 1 big level? spinio's post was funny, but i think daliman is actually serious...

To reinforce what has been said a hundred times already, it's almost definitely a clear fold.


The only thing that changes this is specific information that indicates your player to be able to make this play, despite your obvious strength and the highly dangerous board, with less strength than you.

From what you're saying, he's not an idiot. He almost certainly sees that you have a hand, and his river bet is a final attempt to extract money from you. I say he almost definitely has KK or, 20% of the time he has AA or AT. Very rarely, he might even have TT here. He plays the hand with strength the entire way. He makes it clear he is not going anywhere, and unless he's dumb enough to take expensive draws on a paired board, or to play this through as an extremely risky bluff, then there's nothing to discuss and you're better off folding and shrugging off the loss as a cooler.

edit: Don't dwell on folds like this. Make them when you have to, and most of the time you'll be right. Second-guessing yourself here only gets you into trouble. Several hands into a session with this player, and you haven't given us a reason to think beyond the first or second degree of conspiracy. Most players are pretty straight-forward. And from that perspective, this player is certainly playing for a big pot because he has a hand he thinks is best. Consider what hands he thinks he can't beat. Your hand probably isn't on that very short list.

Ok, instead of just trying to be funny, how about pointing out why I might be wrong? I don't ever play this deep, and most of what I see about doing so tells me overraise your big hands to kill odds. Your post did no analysis other than to say "fold, he has AA usually", and didn;t address any other streets at all. Others said he needs to raise more earlier, yet you choose my post to bash?

i honestly couldn't stop laughing when i read the hand and then read the subject. "am i too deep to fold this?" and lol @spinoli: can somebody give him a custom title that says something like "always wrong" or something?

and as for dali: you don't have to raise huge/bet big with your monsters this deep to "cut down on odds" all the time: your opponent here has 4 outs max (likely 3) and you don't want to scare him away so if raising huge gives away your hand as huge (especially when trips are possible), then you want to keep the guy in.

Daliman, "killing the odds" pretty much equal to "burning money" i guess it is like the guy keeps floating you, hammering you with turn bets etc, and then you spike a set of kings and he bets again and you raise smth crazy to "kill the odds" and show him that you have something :P

anyway, results?

this thread for realz?

a. bet/raising bigger to make a guy fold 2 outs doesn't make any sense
b. doing it because you are deep and want to avoid "difficult" decisions is dumb
c. bet/raising bigger in this particular hand would not have made the guy fold AA/KK so you would be in the exact same situation except his bet would be allin instead of 3/4 pot
d. i hope i'm being leveled, i thought you were good at this game