the fact that you have 7c and 5c in ur hand doesnt make it more likely that hes bluffing imo. i think most of the times he is bluffing he has QcTx or somehow has the Qc in his hand. i think the fact you have these cards in ur hand definately polarizes his range towards Jflush+/trash WAY more tho. he cant have 65cc, 45cc, 75cc obv, 78cc 67cc or 79cc. does this make it more likely he is bluffing? again no i dont think so I think they are independant. it just means imo that really the only hand i can see him getting there and pushing with that is better than 75cc and worse than AK is 64cc, so if ur raise/calling this, you should raise/call AK and probably AT as well.

also re: i think it was xorbie who was basically using AK as a balancing point in his raise for value/fold range...this is fine in order to balance out when you fold and when you call, but its not because AK is better or worse than 75cc, its just basically a randomizer. you might as well say I will call with AT fold AK and call KK and fold AA and call all flushes.

-Mike

well then stop randomizing and figure out whether or not to call!

seriously though, i mean the point is we are bluff catching in this spot with both of the hands and having the 7 and 5 of clubs has no impact on his range for flushes because he is not pushing 97cc on the river for value anyways so him not being able to have it doesn't matter too much.

the question is just one of how often he has the naked Qc to pot this river (wouldn't c/r be a very viable line for medium pair with nut blocker type hands) and how often he actually push with it when he does considering it actually takes a decent bit of cojones here... figure that out and don't "randomize your calling range" because you're not going to be in this situation enough for a long run to exist... when you start playing in games where you are, it will matter more and we should begin to randomize. but here, it just isn't meaningful IMO.

duck: i wasnt saying its good to randomize in this situation or whatever...i was just saying that AK = 57c here and that ppl who are calling with 57c and folding with AK ARE randomizing their calling range here and that is basically all they are doing.

also i disagree that he wouldnt push the 9 hi flush on the river for value here..but i think the line is pretty close to that. besides, given the dynamics of the match being very aggro and getting caught up in the moment maybe he does push even 45c on the river here (at least sometimes, even if its incorrect) so i think it does make a difference.

-Mike

lol

obviously my point about having the 5 and 7 of clubs is in reference to how many times he has Q5cc Q7cc J7cc or another hand he'd value jam the river with, or how often even he's got smaller club combos and bet-calls- i mean anytime he leads at all it is relevent to this hand

I was just pointing out that AK is probably the very, very bottom of our value raise range, that there is as many hands in between AK and 57 as there is in between 57 and QJ. It's not just about randomizing specifically on AK/57, what I'm saying is that folding AK is ok because it's at the bottom of your range (well, obviously your bluff raises are at the bottom of your range), whereas folding 57 we start to get into the territory of this is +EV for villain to do, in this particular spot, with any two cards, because krantz is folding over half his range if he folds here (assuming he is raising AK in this spot), and villains raise is like 10k into a very big pot.

Now, that doesn't mean we need to balance just for the sake of balance, since it is important to figure out whether villain really is bluffing or not, but we should at least take into account that villain is not an rtard and if this is a spot that is +EV for him to bluff ATC when we are making pretty reasonable assumptions (i.e. krantz is bluff raising here, will fold AK/set/straight and may fold baby flushes), then he should be able to recognize that and we should assume that he actually is bluffing here at least some decent portion of the time.

That is to say, it is ok to make very exploitable folds when nobody expects you to make them because they are far less likely to try a bluff when it requires a fold they don't expect to be made. However, when people expect you to be capable of making big folds, and certainly this would be a spot like that ESPECIALLY if mastr has the Q, you do have to take randomization into account.

So does everyone agree that his most probable range is:

QcTc, JcTc, QcTd, QcTh and discounted range would be: Qc6c, Jc6c, QcJc, QcQd, QcQs, QcQh

So it's pretty close to 50/50. Given that he only needs to beat 30% of villains range both AK and 7c5c should call.

Not really 50/50 since he would always value bet the nuts and not always bluff the Qc but it's still a +EV call given OPs read.

Can anyone explain why this concept is accurate/not accurate?

this is very right. and very well put. i think a lot of the well respected posters in this thread only understand(/stood?) about 80% of that post but were adamant about the 40% that they did get.

amazing how far poker has come in just a couple years

i can't imagine Mastr potting the river with any hands with the Qc of in them except the nuts.

RESULTS?????

A few comments:

#1: If he really turned a FD, it would either give him a pair and fd, straight- and flushdraw, or a very unlikely float oop. Given hero's description of the match, it seems weird that he would choose a passive line for such strong semi-bluff hands. In particular because as the board reads, hero can be 2barrelling as low as 6x and have a LOT of semi-draws that are folding to a turn cr.

#2: The river line seems a lot more to me like a valuebet that turns into a bluff, giver #1. AxQc is pretty apparent, but there are others, a lot other's that don't hold Qc. I agree with the people saying that even though he could be leading out with marginal hands (like QcT) that now has very reduced sd value, it would be very rare, as he is not folding out a lot of the exact hands that actually has QTish hand beat.

#3: It seems like people, and OP, are trying to create a generel theory on raising river given this type of board and action in the hand. OP even mentions that it might only be good to raise this river if it's to induce a push.... well, I disagree. First of all, from what I've played with mastr, he is not really the type, who makes laydowns.. to put it gently. Secondly, hero's range quickly gets very polarized if the above reasoning is put into practice. And thirdly, there is a bunch of factors that can not be contained in simple boardreading.. ie. flow in the match, actions on other tables, timing in this hand and on other tables, profits from willingness to not get 3bet bluffed on the river, etc etc.

Oh btw.. call if you're behind in the match. Fold if you're ahead.

- AB

"RESULTS?????"

Read the ****ing thread...

(sorry, I just hate that ****)

Bluffing people off of flushes headsup is not a very good idea. Trying to bluff someone off a backdoor flush is even worse. Clicking the call button is so easy, folding sucks and it rots peoples guts for days. People love to call, and see the nuts.

can not find it RESULTS?

lol

Praios,

Either you didn't look hard enough, or you didn't look at all, or you are a ******. Either way, I will not help you in your pointless endeavor to be results oriented....

I hate anal comments like these.

even tho this is a good thread, nice bump you ****ing ******

Anyone know what master had?

i have not played with mastrblastr heads up. however, i have recently played a few days of live tournaments where we played together for most of 2 days (full tables). while he is a good player i observed 2 things.

1. he tends to try to slow down with a big hand early in a hand (or even with a big pair pre) and represent a smaller hand vs the aggression he often shows with his "normal" hands.

2. he tends to not give his opponents credit for a very big hand when he has a somewhat big hand.

the above is only based on a few days of full table tournament play.

however, i have also seen friends play heads up vs him for a few minutes several times.

based on what i observed of his recent play i would have called.

playing full ring tournaments for a few days (1000 hands?) is probably both not a big enough sample nor the correct game format to draw any conclusions about someone's HSNL HU play.

taylor

i do!

what did he have!!? lol

who are you and why didn't you say hi to me, i'm very nice.

I can't disagree.