10-20, effective stacks about 3K. tightish player opens the pot for 70 in MP. CO calls and I call in the big blind with J8. please let's keep the preflop comments out of the analysis: I know many of you think this is not a spot to be calling, but I regularly defend in this type of spot and have been successful doing so.

the flop comes down J74. I lead for 165 into a pot of 220. pf raiser calls and the other player folds. My leading frequency and the pf raiser's tendencies are such that there is probably a 50-50 chance that my hand is good at the moment.

turn card is the 3. I check he checks.

river is the T. I check. he now bets 400 into 550. based on his patterns, I'd say that there is a 75-80 percent chance that my hand is no good here. do you guys think raising this river is good?

i could buy bd flush or JT (89) but despite the consistency of your line that doesnt mean hes folding-i will say that he has better than a pair here almost never

moral of the story, i think we need more info about villain to be able to help you here

i think it is good if you would play a set the same way

yeah good post: I would probably not play JT this way, but he does not necessarily know that. I absolutely could play a set, flush or 65 this way though.

to answer your question, my opponent is the type that can lay down AA - but he can make a tough call too. in other words, he won't get stubborn with an overpair - but he WILL call with it if he thinks I am fos.

so the question becomes, how often does it appear that I am fos on this board. I thought that the river card was the absolute best card in the deck for this (I can't do this on a spade because if he bets the club, he has the flush himself too often for me to screw around).

I don't like it. I think AJ-AA is raising flop or betting turn fairly often even with a tight player, but J9, JQ, and KJ might not be betting river and probably wont be played preflop by a tight player if they're offsuit. The only hands I'm sure he could have there are TT and JT, and I don't see him folding those.

JT and TT are both definitely in his range. He is not likely to fold TT, but JT plays no different than AA. That being said with another player still to act behind him (and me having led into both of them), I think that this particular player would not raise AJ. He might not even raise AA, because I know that he would not want to face a bet-three bet situation from me and not know whether to felt with those hands.

hmmm interesting. If I were villain w/ AA, I'd feel pretty good about getting it on this flop against a b3b vs. someone laggy like you (never played w/ you, so maybe you are nitty post?), even 150bb. is that bad?

i don't like it, and i dont' think it matters if you would ever play a set this way

yah pretty much.

it's obviously incredibly opponent dependent and dependent on how often you've gotten caught bluffing in this spot or similar spots/if the pfr has a good idea for what your leading ranges are.

but come on, nobody folds anything anymore, and especially not against someone as loose as you

This pretty much sums it up imo

i think you should make it like 200 pre, for deception... other than that i would minraise the river to find out where you're at

I'm tired of sifting through this crap in every freaking post. Hey dude!! You are not funny!! Please ban.

You said Villain is "Tightish", trouble with a bluff here as played is that diamonds are possibly part of his arsenal or a hand that he considers he is betting for value on the river. He just called the flop with the CO behind him YET to act, so he may be on the spade draw at worst but the tight live 10/20 Bellagio type players are not bluffing this river too often here to make your river c/r work (as played)

I would have preferred if you lead turn and if he calls then make a river bet or a river check raise but as some mentioned this is very player/situation dependent

i agree with krantz samo, while i kinda like a cr here i just think your never getting credit and getting him to fold.

this is like the quintessential board texture to make a believable river c/r bluff....I want to say I like it but it just seems so obvious and predictable.

I'd rather 3-barrel it (changing that plan on some river cards of course) unless he's the type to just meh-call with an overpair or TP all the way. At this point if you c/r it looks exactly like what it is, a last-minute desperation bluff.

Please don't just click the notify mod button for posts like these. Send me a PM and I will get to it much more quickly

Dat Moose has been banned for 3 days.

If his flop calling range is 50/50 against you.. why'd you bet the flop? You've gotta be better than 50/50 against his c-betting range.

i don't really think this applies, it wasn't a HU pot to the flop.

looks played well and i think the river is an easy fold vs. this player. gets closer to a call the looser he opens, but given that he's tight i don't think you can do anything else.

also i assume this is live full ring since there's no HH and you used MP for position?

Oops.. missed that flop was 3-way.

there is a pretty big difference between being very loose and being very aggressive. people seem to (incorrectly) equate the two.

yeah that is very bad in my opinion. I am never playing AJ or KK that way, so if we get 150bb on this flop, you are either against a big draw (close to 50-50) or you are drawing dead to two outs. against that range, getting it in is obviously bad.

dude samo the real problem is that like a bajillion of your hands for leading the flop either miss or are beat by the river, so if you want to c/r in spots like this youre just playing really really unbalanced and youre going to get called a ton. not even like balancing is important here, youre just going to get called a ton cause most of your range has missed.

mediocre bluff/good fold.

i like it but only vs. a competent player. he's gonna have to give you a lot of respect. add in the factor that he's been playing tight and in EP... you're gonna look pretty huge if your image is pretty good.