regarding durrrr/jungle.

if durrrr doesnt think he has a reasonable edge im not sure whats going on. on PTR they have played 13.4k hands together which could easily be more than that w/ PTR missing some hands. yet durrrr was the one that pushed for jungle to take the challenge knowing he has to lay him 3:1. i would have to think durrrr believes he has some kinda edge here when jungle was playing him straight up from time to time and hes pushing to lay him 3:1 on side action now.

or its a big ego

or he just doesnt give a ****

mebbe durrr lost to him on purpose to convince him to take the challenge and nooow durr gonna gobble up all junglemans maneys.. whats a good line on this being the case?

i want to bet on durrrr at -105 up to 10k. anyone??

No idea what this -105, +105 thing means, what's that in terms of X/1?

any of you guys have any experience with working from a desk that is retractable...you can both sit/stand as needed?

im really struggling with some back/neck pain that i think is stemming from sitting at my desk for long periods of time and i'm pretty much over it / looking for a change...would love to hear from other poker players that either have or still use a desk like that and how it is for grinding online...

thx a lot...oh, and if u do have one, plz provide me with the name of the desk as im looking online for stuff now...

-105 means for every 100 i win i have to risk 105.

so u can bet 1k on jungleman to win 1050

am i missing something, or doesn't the fact that the line has settled so close to even imply that durrrr is taking the worst of this bet by far?

wait, durrrr took the worst of it in a prop bet? no way.

there is a pretty clear assumption that tom is just like *** the haters i will just make sure i win and it won't matter what the line is.

this is kind of an ivey move (or maybe it isn't since ivey is always angling for better odds god bless his heart) and tom is kind of in between jungleman who is like really good for an internet poker player (this is a big + and a small -) and ivey who is next level **** (this is my highest praise) and just always wins so it's hard to say what the true line is since tom is banking on some non-tangible ability to own souls but tableratings doesn't really back his **** up but then he has lots of money and has made some crazy calls and stuff and jungleman has kind of shown that he has an extra chromosome or something even though he has good stats so who knows we live in interesting times.

Can people judge favourites in this sort of thing at all accurately?

If Durrrr had a 1.5PTBB/100 long term expectation HU vs Jungleman (which would make the bet +ev I think) for the first 50k hands say, or vice versa, would anyone actually know? How can anyone quantify edges so accurately?

More fun than debating whether or not it's a good bet would be debating how long durrr spent thinking whether or not it would be a good bet.

Shouldn't be too hard to do the EV of this bet at 200-400 NL giving durrr a win rate between 0-10bb/100.

I wonder what the win rate would have to be to make it breakeven.

you could solve for that but you need to estimate the standard deviation for their match

Never stop amazing me

If you pretend that there's no nitting it up at the end with the lead, then it's not too hard to calculate. Depends on the standard deviation, but he needs somewhere between like 1.35 and 1.9 bb/100 (or .675 to .85 PTBB). That'd translate to a win % in the 55% to 59% range. (I also ignored rake fwiw. I guess they are probably raking like $5k.)

I don't think there's a good way to account for nitting it up at the end, though. Have no clue how significant that is, but it definitely favors jungleman because 1) it effectively lowers the number of hands played and 2) if durrr actually does have a bb/100 edge, that means he's more likely to be the one who has to nit it up while jungle just wins lots of pots uncontested (and of course if durrr doesn't have a bb/100 edge in the first place then jungle's equity is $500k+ anyway).

i think we should all stop worrying about this EV mumbo jumbo and just root for a bloodbath.

Nerds need entertainment too .

lolol sooooo glad im coming to chicago on thurs!!

1 time Angelo

nvm

charder - yeah seriously

lollapalooza?
magicninja you going?

im like 20% to go for the weekend and like 40% to go up just sunday and stay in chicago for a couple nights

anyone else think its pretty ridic to have an "official inception thread" in HSNL?