IPoker Network $5000.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (UTG): $8145.00
MP: $4925.00
CO: $5095.00
BTN: $13323.00
SB: $10398.50
BB: $4695.00

Pre Flop: ($75.00) Hero is UTG with 9 K
Hero raises to $175, MP calls $175, CO calls $175, 3 folds

Flop: ($600.00) T 4 J (3 players)
Hero bets $400.00, MP calls $400, CO calls $400

Turn: ($1800.00) A (3 players)
Hero ???






MP is 31/21/28% over 17k hands.
3bet 4.1%, quite bad regular.
Fold to cbet 53%, raiset only 12% cbets.

CO is 25/19/34% over 700 hands, plays really good regulars 25/50 HU and seems pretty good.

Do we bet, despite this is a really good card for their ranges?
44 JT were already made hands (but mainly bubby would probably raise the flop with those), AT and AT turn 2 pair and KQ makes a straight.
What is our plan?

Bet?
Check? What are we gonna do when one of them bets 2/3 pot?

irev?

sitout pre lol

cc if MP bets, c/s if CO bets IMO, betting seems tarded.

Why check-shove vs CO?

His range is considerably stronger than MP's and I don't think he bet-folds anything except maybe 98. (And not even 100% of his 98's since he checks most of them back on the turn.)

if both IR and MP check to CO he has more reason to bet, he could call Jx (or another blufcatcher w/ some redraw equity) on the flop, and turn it into a bluf right here, bc IR/MP almost never c/s or c/c

What is extremely important is the information u have about the flatcallrange from CO on the flop, that's what differs our opinion IMO.

I know IR and he told me CO raises his set/2p combo's all the time on te flop so that's why I don't think he has that strong kinda range on the turn.

EDIT:

A c/s here implies the nuts basicly I guess, that's another reason because then he could b/f AT

some math:

5k
5k
5k

turn:

5k-575=4425 (lets say 4,4k for ez math)
pot= 1,8k

lets say it's checked to CO and he bets 1,3k

pot = 3,1k

Hero shoves 4,4k effectively, MP folds CO calls:

We basicly have 25% equity vs CO, pot total is gonna be:

5k+5k+575+75= 10650

2650$ equity, so we eff lose if called

4400-2650=1750

pot = 3,1k to win, so he has to fold ~36% of the time to make it EV+ to shove after CO bets

if u cc, u have 25% equity,

so:

pot 1,8+2,6= 4,4k

75% of the time we have to cf
25% of the time we get an avg extra bet of 2,0-2,5K? (checking behind the Q outs, betting the flush outs)

se 3/4 of the times we give up an 1,3k EV, 1/4 times we win a ~9k pot/2 = 4,5k

so the EV of a cc is positiv, but not that big


NB: if my math is wrong somewhere, pls tell me

so it's up to you, do you thinks he bf >40%?