I'm writing an article and was curious if a claim I was making was actually true.

Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 2 players

BTN/SB: t1500
Hero (BB): t1500

Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is BB with A 7

Button minraises, Hero calls.

Flop: (t160) A 6 J

Hero checks. Button bets t80. Hero calls.

Turn (t320) 2

Hero checks. Button bets t180. Hero calls.

River (680) 8

Hero checks. Button bets 420. Hero?



Reads: You're playing against a winning $50 reg, pretty much readless other than that. He's nothing special. You assume he raises fairly wide from the button and would c-bet this flop with his air. You haven't played much and know nothing about his barreling frequencies. You assume he's on the nitty side, is weighted towards value, but is capable of bluffs. You don't know his frequencies more precisely than that, because otherwise you'd know the answer now wouldn't you. You don't expect to play this opponent that much in the future, so ignore any metagame/GTO answers.

Do you think this is a +EV call?

Regardless, what's the weakest hand you'd get to the river in this way sometimes, and you think is a +EV call given description?

Speaking very generally, a $50 reg that is likely on the nittier side is probably not capable of triple barrel bluffs, especially early in the match, especially when such a dry board runs out so badly for one. I guess he could be on level 3 and think "he knows its a bad board to bluff so he can make some big folds," but I doubt someone thinks that deeply with no history.

The brain says fold but the heart says call (and the rulebook says never fold top pair).

Well, i played few matches today against op like u described. I never been good in spot like that. we beat bluffs only, and its bad board to bluff for him.

edit: river size looks value ish

Not sure if my math is right but, if his value range is AA,JJ,66,22,A2s+,A2o+,J6o, we have 26% equity if he's never bluffing. As we need 38% equity to call, and his value range is 174 combos, he needs to have 20 combos of bluffs for it to be a +EV call. So 20/194 means he has to be bluffing 10% of the time for us to make a +EV call?

Even though its the driest board I've ever seen I'd still probably call since I'm guessing he will try and bluff our Jx hands at least 10% of the time. I also think A3o is the weakest hand I'd call this river with, since it needs him to be bluffing with 48 combos, or 21% of the time (48/222).

The next best hand KJo needs him to be bluffing with 96 combos for us to have 38% equity vs his range, which means he has to be bluffing 35% of the time and I don't think a nitty winning reg is bluffing this river 1/3 of the time but might 1/5 of the time so I'm calling with A3o.

What rulebook is this exactly?

Reads confuse me cos ur assumptions are a bit broad/vague/ misconscrewed, did I really just say that? Yes I noticed our 7 kicker plays and yes this is marginal call, it is a call, but this is the lowest of my c/c x3 range. So: not with say <A5

Not bcos I think he value bets KJ etc here just because of his bluffing range, but I dno what winning 50 turbo regs are like, if the word nitty gets there I might need AT

What I meant by misconscrewed was u can't say readless and nitty together, it's misleading really for anyone trying to figure out a range. Readless is readless

I'll re-phrase.

We're playing against a winning $50 reg we've never played against before. He doesn't have much of a reputation, but is a regular at those stakes. Use my assumptions about that character profile, or use your own.

he knows you think hes not bluffing, so hes bluffing. Comprende? I would call this down if I knew that he knew that I knew he was a reg, and that he knew I was a reg. Comprende?

Location: int-tuition

Just a joke.

I think a lot of 50s regs won't be value betting all Axes 3 streets but I could be wrong.

Yeah I don't know WTF a 50 turbo reg does here either but any kind of "does he know what I know" = ez call

Interesting considering the point of the article is how this is a board you should 3 barrel a large % against most players

I agree, especially this river size.

ez call, yet fold A5?

If I'm button here, is the calculation to find out how often I need my bluff to work to be +EV bet/pot+bet. So 420/1100 or 38%?

Assuming no showdown value, yes.

That's why I play super turbos, so much easier

Wouldn't be AK and AQ also be part of his value range?

He's actually including any ace in that range.

If it wasnt the first hand, Id lean towards folding. As played Im calling

I was being 100% serious.

Yeah I was waiting for someone to point this out, I didn't actually mean it to look like the first hand for that reason.

you gotta bluff catcher but I don't think the opponent you described is good enough to get three streets of value with many hands esp when you have an ace blocker and you only need to be right like 1/3. looks like a call

My two cents: Fiddy dollar players usually aren't creative. But I also don't automatically give them credit for being able to value bet thinly enough until I see otherwise. These two factors kind of make the decision difficult.

On one hand, I don't think the typical $50 player is going to try and move you off a Jack with three barrels. Also, most of them know c/c'ing top pair is a possible line, so to them barreling when you have Ax in your range may seem like suicide.

On the other hand, until I see otherwise, I don't think villain ever value bets this river sizing without a very premium top pair or better.. and we all know how hard it is to make a good hand heads-up.

So what's my answer? Well I think if we combine:
1) Pot odds, we're getting 2.61 on a call.
2) Don't give credit for being able to value bet thinly enough without reads.
3) Villain is possibly spazzing out, assuming you're c/r'ing top pair OTF.
4) Card removal with the Ace.

It's a call. While assumptions are OK, I always take them with a grain of salt. When making a "hero" calldown, I try and figure if villain is capable of vbetting thin on the river. When the answer is no (it usually is, readless) and villain's range seems polarized, I click the call button. I give this thought process more weight than general assumptions that may or may not be true.

I'm assuming most of the people who are saying "it's a call" and citing card removal are also calling with A3. Also are not going as far as to call with KJ.

^ Why not? If you're thinking villain is polarized, A7 = A3 = KJ.

Card removal is a nice bonus when you have A3, but it's not the primary reason you're calling.

And KJ has card removal for AK/AJ