Spot I'm unsure of... - Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy No Limit Tournaments Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos

Spot I'm unsure of...

Post Reply Subscribe

...

12-21-2014 , 05:22 PM

Ellzebub

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 207

40 hands in. Villain had close to 100% vpip oop, and had min 3bet 40%. A few hands earlier he showed up with A3o in a min 3b pot. He was checking back overcards on this type of texture and had shown some spewy tendencies throughout the match. He was attacking limps with large raises also which is why I didn't limp to keep the pot smaller.

Is it correct to fold here when the board is this wet?

And if the flop was drier, say 279 with 2 clubs. I have about the correct equity to call with my gutshot and overs right?

I'm a bit unsure if I'm thinking correctly about this spot on wet and dry flops so any help would be appreciated.

Thanks

Poker Stars, $14.39 Buy-in (40/80 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #33521371

Hero (SB): 1,420 (17.8 bb)
BB: 1,580 (19.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J

Hero raises to 160, BB raises to 240, Hero calls 80

Flop: (480) 7

(2 players)
BB bets 1,340 and is all-in
Hero ???

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

Quote

12-22-2014 , 01:55 AM

jaysfan55

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 39

It's reasonably close, but looks like a fold. You need 41.5% equity to make the call, and you probably have more like 35-40%. Don't think it would change much on a 972 board either, still barely a fold IMO.

Also, I think it's much better to limp JTo here.

Quote

12-22-2014 , 05:11 AM

raised by jews

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 2,847

Limp pre. If villain spews over the limp just ship.

As played, 4bet shoving is probably best, but calling might be slightly better. Havent been in this spot in a long time, so hopefully a math guy can chime in (Im on an Ipad so I cant use stove).

Obv. Fold on the flop.

Quote

12-22-2014 , 07:28 PM

spamz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 9,207

Don't see why people are advocating limping giving description. Minraise and call min3bet seems best imo. Flop is super close if you ask me, though probably a fold on paper.

Quote

12-22-2014 , 11:13 PM

jaysfan55

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 39

Quote:

Originally Posted by spamz

Don't see why people are advocating limping giving description. Minraise and call min3bet seems best imo. Flop is super close if you ask me, though probably a fold on paper.

I completely missed the sentence explaining villain attacks limps. Agreed that minraising is good

Quote

12-23-2014 , 02:44 PM

MR. Muscle

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 83

don't see how you can have greater than 28-30% EQ here...
pre is perfect

Quote

12-28-2014 , 08:57 AM

Ellzebub

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 207

Cheers for the replies.

How accurate should I try to be when assessing if I have enough equity to call. If I believe I'm a few % off the equity I need against villains range given pot odds then should I be folding? Or do the unknowns when assessing a villains range allow for movement.

This may be too broad of a question, so I hope it makes sense.

Quote

12-30-2014 , 06:59 AM

spartan1

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 761

Villain type and tendencies should sway equity by a few % either way.

This is an easy fold due to this players spewy tendency, since you may find and opportunity to trap him in the future. If you thought this villain was tougher and you have little to no edge, I'd consider gii on this board.

Quote

01-05-2015 , 07:41 AM

Ellzebub

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 207

Thanks spartan. That makes sense

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...