Hi,

I'm trying to work out what the best play is when I'm in the BB with small pocket pairs against a min-raise (I play turbos). I've tried using my HEM filters to see what's working out best, but the sample is rediculously small:

shoved - 4 hands - Total $EV Diff - $0.96
called - 27 hands - Total $EV Diff - $0.97

So to shove seems better if this lol sample size meant anything, which it obviously doesn't.

I also calculated the EV of shoving against a min-raise for a villain who would call with 66+, A6s+, A6o+, KQs (no idea if that is a decent renge or not), and with effective stacks at 20bb.

EV = (p(villain folds) * 1.5bb) + (p(villain calls) * ((hero equity * 40bb) - 19bb))
EV = (0.86 * 1.5) + (0.14 * ((0.43922 * 40) - 19)
EV = 1.089632

So, this is about just over 5% ROI before rakeback. I don't know what to think of this to be honest. 5% seems a big edge, but then from what I read some turbo players make about 8 or 9% ROI, so maybe this isn't enough. Also, as I'm learning and playing at the $1.50's which has a rake of 6.66%, does making this play mean that I'm actually going to be losing after rakeback?

Shove. Every flop with overcards sucks, and you're out of position.

As far as calling range of 66+, A6s+, A6o+, KQs goes - it'd be +EV to shove anything over them for fold equity, unless they minraise a very strong range. No idea of what the average calling range for the opponent at that situation is, since 20bb deep is fairly readless. Then again, people at 1.5$'s call down both very light and very tight.
Also, seems like something is wrong with your EV calculation. I think even if they open any2c, and call with the range you've mentioned - it'd still be capped at +4.35%. And they don't open any 2c. For 65% minraise and the calling range you've mentioned, it'd be +3.58%.
Folding/calling, though...is obviously much worse than that. Although you do give chances to yourself for future hands...but so does him folding to your shove most of the time.

Now, as far as rake is concerned...sorry, no clue. Interested, myself.
I think PS rake for 1.5$'s is 4%, so that got me worried .

Well, personally, I would do my chicken dance first, take a sip of my redbull, fistpump and croon 'yeah baby', call my mom and say 'hey mom, I'm gangsta yo,' and then shove.

@Crazyriver Lol. I'll do this next time. Thanks.

@Munchking - That's the rake for superturbos. I play turbos, as stated.

@Munchking - Firstly, I hadn't thought about the fact that the call % is higher because it is the proportion of his raising range. Good point. My calculations assume a raising range of any two cards.

But, even so, I'm pretty sure the calcs for the ATC situation are right. The EV of 1 point something big blinds is more than 5% of the 19 bb investment. How did you come to your calculation?

Whoops, thought you were HT. Nevermind.
Also, disregard the numbers in my previous post . I've blindly used a tool to calculate and even misjudged its output.
However, I've done the calculations by myself and now it matches the ICM calculator's(hooray for learning how to use it now).
You're +2.21bb's EV on shoving over a 100% minraise with a range of calling of A6+, KQs, 66+(14.03% call range, with our equity vs it on 42.43%).

Calculation:

-They fold to your shove, your stack 22bb's, occurs 85.97% times, EV 18,9134 bb's.
-They call, you win, your stack 40bb's, occurs 14.03%*42.43% times, EV 2,3812 bb's.
-They call, you lose, your stack 0bb's, EV 0bb's.

-You fold instead of shove, your stack 19bb's.

18.9134+2.3812+0 - 19 = +2,2946 bb's. Fairly close to ICM calculator's result.
That's a 12% return, which is huge.
For a 60% minraise open and same calling range, you're up 1,735bb's, which is still 9% ROI.
Widening their calling range to (randomly picked number, idk how wide they go at turbos) 24%...you're still up 1,26bb's, 6.6% ROI.


I think in your calculation, you're not doing the -19 right. It's -19*(1-0.43922)


...so, go ahead and follow crazyriver's post)

Chicken dance is -ev though...

I wanted to write something clever, but pretty much this

+1
LoLed in rl

made my day

Its +ev to jam over a min raise 20bbs or less with 22+,but sometimes if you have reads on your specific opponent like his calling range is tight i'd tighten my shoving range!
but jamming 22+ over min raise 20bbs or less is +ev which is std really!

FYP?

FYP

lol @ zorzak replying the same as I did for the same post
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...0&postcount=13

Shove