HU Hyper
Blinds 20/40

Hero BB: 460
SB: 540

SB raises 80% in exactly that spot.

SB minraise to 80
Hero shoves 72o according to ICMizer ?!

If thats really +EV could somebody explain to me why ?
Is the ICMizer assumption that we have enough FoldEQ to make that a profitable shove ?

Thanks for your help guys

You need very good reads to assume he does really open 80% here. Assume he openshoves low Axs and low PPs at this stack depht, in this case he is probably opening close to any2. He needs to call pretty wide to not make 72o a profitable shove and if you did not 3bet shove frequently so far he wont call that wide.

(Icmizer actually tells you how that number is calculated.)

how much villain folds is much more important than how much he is opening here, if he really opens 80% I guess you can assume he wont call wide enough and jam is pretty good

Just because something is +EV in a vacuum doesn't mean it's the best in practice. If you can be shoving 72o here you can be shoving 100%. You aren't going to do this because villain will adjust, which is bad for you. You should be shoving wider and 3bnai with a wider range, but I'd be surprised if 72o was one of the better hands to put in that range because you have less equity when called than you would with 65o, 53s for example.

+1. Don't take the exploitative line each time the spot comes up, if that spot comes up once every two hands.

How can somebody estimate the negative effect of adjustments? I mean how much EV would you give up with bottom of your range to continue exploiting him with better hands? In this case even the bottom 10% is like 1 BB better than folding. I dont say shoving 72o is okay, but curious about how much can we here shove?

You should do it as much as you can without making it obvious you're exploiting them. Theoretical max exploit EV doesn't matter because if you shove any two they'll adjust almost immediately and you lose all the future EV of just increasing your 3b to say 40% compared to a default of ~30%.

I dont know if anybody has any material in negative effect of counter adjustment, specifically exploiting somebody too much.
I just simulated a few games in crev and found it this:
I made a mr/f game, sb can mr or fold, bb can 3bs or fold.
1st game standard, sb opens 100%, bb 3bet standard, sb calls standard. (SB:0.48 - BB: -0.48) (bb was 3bshoving 21.5%)
Here lets say bb somehow knows that sb is opening too wide or calling too thin and adjust but not too much.
2nd game he adjust to 30% and gets an increase in ev, its SB: 0.33 - BB: -0.33
Assume SB is static for the next 8 round and dont know that the BB adjusted and keeps his range the same. BB dont want to adjust too much so he kept his range aswell.
So in 10 rounds SB won: 3.45 BB lost 3.45

Next game: same first round
Second round: BB knows that 3bing every two is likely good so he opens up his range very wide, lets say 70%. Second round: SB: -0.23 BB: 0.23
Third and fourth round same as second one as SB thinks its just good cards for the BB.
Fifth round SB starts to adjust by lowering his opening range, BB keeps his frequencies.
SB opens 80% only - and calls a very bit wider. (SB: -0.05 BB: 0.05)
Sixth round- he likely got 3betted fourth times in the row so he adjust by big margin now.
Opens only 55% and calls much wider. SB: 0.34 BB: -0.34
Seventh round and eight round same as sixth.
Eight and ninth round: BB lower his 3B freq - SB: 0.08 BB: -0.08
Tenth round: SB: 0.1 BB: -0.1

SB: 0.94 BB: -0.94

We won a lot of BB by adjusting much more drastically. Its obviously nowhere near of a real life model, but I wanted to start a discussion how could we actually estimate how much EV can we give up because of the fear of counter-adjustment.

Even if it becomes obvious that you're exploiting them and they adjust immediately, you can still increase your EV by exploiting again their adjustment, can't you?

I think that as long as they don't shift their strategy towards to an equilibrium, there should be enough room for exploitation whatever adjustments they make.

In essence, the player who is constantly adjusting at a faster rate is getting the moneyyy.

If they adjust to a better strategy, which this would force them to do, they become less exploitable.

you should be careful with this, like in op 3b jaming 72o, ok given frequencies its fine and are best move, but if you over do it, it can easily become -ev, you can lose all ev you gained in just one hand when villain makes drastic adjustments

Exactly. The more exploitative your play is the more exploitable it is.

Thats the perfect sentence to answer the question.